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For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Utah has defied the odds and its pundits and has a commanding 3-1 series lead; I expect this team to have a letdown tonight though as it will look to finish this series in Game 6 in front of its own home town crowd.
The Jazz always struggle on the road against the Nuggets; just 1-4-1 ATS their last six at the Pepsi Center.
On the other side of the court: Obviously this is a "do or die" situation for the Nuggets; last night we played successfully on the Mavericks who were facing the same situation; the night before that it was on the Suns (although that series was tied 2-2 heading into Game 5, the Suns still looked at it as a "must win"); I believe Carmelo Anthony's supporting cast will finally make an appearance in this series again.
Keep in mind that Denver is in fact 6-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 1/2 to 9 points.
Bottom line: No need to overanalyze; a loss tonight would be a titanic season failure for this team; just as the Mav's played their best game of their series last night, I expect the same from DENVER;
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