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Re: 5-2-10
jeff benton sunday
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0-1 yesterday minus 30 dimes....overall, 28-34-3 MINUS 60 dimes since i started posting...he has been god awful the past 3 or 4 days..
Sunday's Action 15 Dime: LOS ANGELES LAKERS
5 Dime: Jazz-Lakers UNDER the total
Lakers
The NBA playoffs have always been about matchups, and the fact of the matter is while the Lakers didn’t match up very well against the Thunder in the first round, they match up perfectly against Utah. And history tells us so.
Going back to the 2006 season, the Lakers and Jazz have faced off 24 times – including playoff series each of the last two years – and Los Angeles is 18-6 SU and 15-8-1 ATS during this stretch. Stretch it back to 2005, and the Lakers are riding a 14-game home winning streak against the Jazz (11-3 ATS).
This year, Los Angeles won three of four against Utah, and here were the final scores of those three wins: 101-77 at home (as a 10 ½-point favorite); 96-81 on the road (as a 5½-point underdog and without Kobe Bryant) and 106-92 at home (as a 4½-point favorite exactly one month ago).
In fact, during L.A.’s current 18-6 surge against Utah, 15 of the 18 wins have been double-digit routs, and only one of was by fewer than seven points. The Lakers’ average margin of victory in those 15 wins? 15.4 points per game!
And keep in mind that in the vast majority of the recent meetings between these two, Utah had the services of starting center Mehmet Okur and scoring forward Andrei Kirilenko – in fact, this year, Okur played in all four meetings, scoring in double figures three times; Kirlenko played in one of the games and scored 17 points in a 15-point loss in Los Angeles. Well, Okur is out for the season after blowing out his Achilles in Game 1 against Denver, while Kirilenko is highly doubtful after missing 15 straight games and 21 of the last 23 with a calf injury.
Why is L.A. so successful against the Jazz? Because it even with Okur on the floor, the Jazz cannot handle the Lakers’ frontcourt size with Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. And with Carlos Boozer being forced to shift from his power forward spot to the low post for the majority of the time, the Jazz are facing TWO mismatches: Boozer against Bynum (it’s no contest because Boozer just isn’t physical enough) and Paul Milsap against Gasol.
And I haven’t even mentioned the nightmare that game-planning for Kobe is for Utah. Byrant averages 26.1 ppg in his career (regular-season only) against the Jazz. In three games this year against the Jazz, he put up 22.7 points and 6 rebounds per game, and in last year’s playoff series – won by L.A. in five games – Bryant tallied 24, 26, 38 and 31 points in the four victories.
Bottom line: I know the tendency in Game 1 will be to side with the Jazz, who did a tremendous job in wiping out the Nuggets in six games, while the Lakers struggled in their six-game series win over Oklahoma City (with only one of those five contests resulting in a Lakers blowout). But as I mentioned above, the Thunder were a tough draw for L.A. And as I mentioned time and again in that Jazz-Nuggets series, Utah benefited from a massive coaching mismatch with Jerry Sloan annihilating Denver interim coach Adrian Dantley (filling in for the ill George Karl).
Well, that coaching mismatch won’t exist today. Instead, the only mismatch is the one you’ll see on the actual court, and the Lakers will once again score another double-digit victory. Lay the chalk with confidence.
Jazz-Lakers UNDER
Might seem crazy to be playing a sizeable favorite and the under, but two factors point to this being a low-scoring contest. The first is situational. This is a very tough turnaround spot for both teams, as each went down to the wire to close out their respective series on Friday, then each had to hop on a plane for a long trip to Los Angeles.
Utah and L.A. had to go six games to put away Denver and Oklahoma City, respectively, and all the games were extremely hard fought and physical with many going down to the wire. So to have just 24 hours to rest up for (let alone game plan for) this Game 1 is a tall order.
As for the second factor, it’s historical. These teams stayed under the total in all four regular-season meetings, plus the final three playoff matchups last year. That’s seven straight “unders” in this rivalry. Additionally, the Lakers have been dealing with inflated totals for quite some time now, as the oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to the fact that this has become a very defensive-minded club. To wit, L.A. is on “under” runs of 7-2 at home, 19-9 as a favorite, 20-7 as a playoff favorite, 24-9 against Northwest Division teams and 37-18-2 on Sunday.
Throw in the fact that the four regular-season Jazz-Lakers contests had combined totals 178, 196, 177 and 198, and this total being in excess of 200 points is completely unjustified, especially given the aforementioned situational factors. Play it low.
jeff benton sunday
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0-1 yesterday minus 30 dimes....overall, 28-34-3 MINUS 60 dimes since i started posting...he has been god awful the past 3 or 4 days..
Sunday's Action 15 Dime: LOS ANGELES LAKERS
5 Dime: Jazz-Lakers UNDER the total
Lakers
The NBA playoffs have always been about matchups, and the fact of the matter is while the Lakers didn’t match up very well against the Thunder in the first round, they match up perfectly against Utah. And history tells us so.
Going back to the 2006 season, the Lakers and Jazz have faced off 24 times – including playoff series each of the last two years – and Los Angeles is 18-6 SU and 15-8-1 ATS during this stretch. Stretch it back to 2005, and the Lakers are riding a 14-game home winning streak against the Jazz (11-3 ATS).
This year, Los Angeles won three of four against Utah, and here were the final scores of those three wins: 101-77 at home (as a 10 ½-point favorite); 96-81 on the road (as a 5½-point underdog and without Kobe Bryant) and 106-92 at home (as a 4½-point favorite exactly one month ago).
In fact, during L.A.’s current 18-6 surge against Utah, 15 of the 18 wins have been double-digit routs, and only one of was by fewer than seven points. The Lakers’ average margin of victory in those 15 wins? 15.4 points per game!
And keep in mind that in the vast majority of the recent meetings between these two, Utah had the services of starting center Mehmet Okur and scoring forward Andrei Kirilenko – in fact, this year, Okur played in all four meetings, scoring in double figures three times; Kirlenko played in one of the games and scored 17 points in a 15-point loss in Los Angeles. Well, Okur is out for the season after blowing out his Achilles in Game 1 against Denver, while Kirilenko is highly doubtful after missing 15 straight games and 21 of the last 23 with a calf injury.
Why is L.A. so successful against the Jazz? Because it even with Okur on the floor, the Jazz cannot handle the Lakers’ frontcourt size with Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. And with Carlos Boozer being forced to shift from his power forward spot to the low post for the majority of the time, the Jazz are facing TWO mismatches: Boozer against Bynum (it’s no contest because Boozer just isn’t physical enough) and Paul Milsap against Gasol.
And I haven’t even mentioned the nightmare that game-planning for Kobe is for Utah. Byrant averages 26.1 ppg in his career (regular-season only) against the Jazz. In three games this year against the Jazz, he put up 22.7 points and 6 rebounds per game, and in last year’s playoff series – won by L.A. in five games – Bryant tallied 24, 26, 38 and 31 points in the four victories.
Bottom line: I know the tendency in Game 1 will be to side with the Jazz, who did a tremendous job in wiping out the Nuggets in six games, while the Lakers struggled in their six-game series win over Oklahoma City (with only one of those five contests resulting in a Lakers blowout). But as I mentioned above, the Thunder were a tough draw for L.A. And as I mentioned time and again in that Jazz-Nuggets series, Utah benefited from a massive coaching mismatch with Jerry Sloan annihilating Denver interim coach Adrian Dantley (filling in for the ill George Karl).
Well, that coaching mismatch won’t exist today. Instead, the only mismatch is the one you’ll see on the actual court, and the Lakers will once again score another double-digit victory. Lay the chalk with confidence.
Jazz-Lakers UNDER
Might seem crazy to be playing a sizeable favorite and the under, but two factors point to this being a low-scoring contest. The first is situational. This is a very tough turnaround spot for both teams, as each went down to the wire to close out their respective series on Friday, then each had to hop on a plane for a long trip to Los Angeles.
Utah and L.A. had to go six games to put away Denver and Oklahoma City, respectively, and all the games were extremely hard fought and physical with many going down to the wire. So to have just 24 hours to rest up for (let alone game plan for) this Game 1 is a tall order.
As for the second factor, it’s historical. These teams stayed under the total in all four regular-season meetings, plus the final three playoff matchups last year. That’s seven straight “unders” in this rivalry. Additionally, the Lakers have been dealing with inflated totals for quite some time now, as the oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to the fact that this has become a very defensive-minded club. To wit, L.A. is on “under” runs of 7-2 at home, 19-9 as a favorite, 20-7 as a playoff favorite, 24-9 against Northwest Division teams and 37-18-2 on Sunday.
Throw in the fact that the four regular-season Jazz-Lakers contests had combined totals 178, 196, 177 and 198, and this total being in excess of 200 points is completely unjustified, especially given the aforementioned situational factors. Play it low.
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