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5 Dime: release on the Phoenix Suns minus the points at home against San Antonio. As I release this play at 8:15 AM Pacific, the Suns are laying 2 1/2 here in Las Vegas and most offshore locations except that one book that is always seemingly higher priced for favorites. I bought down the 1/2 point on Phoenix, making the Suns -2. No matter the case, you should buy down the insurance as well.
Picked up the 2-0 sweep last night highlighted by my biggest play of the season hitting once more, my 15 Dime Teaser of the Year # 3 in a Row on Los Angeles and Orlando. I capped the night with a Run Line winner in baseball on the Red Sox to improve to 8-4 on the diamond this season. And just like a second straight winning day put me back in the black for the week. No chasing. No forcing plays. No panic.
It's a weak baseball card tonight so it's back to the hardwoods for my lone selection on Game 2 of the Phoenix-San Antonio series. As you know, I had the Suns in Game 1 when they were laying 3 1/2 to 4; tonight they're priced between 2 1/2 and 3. Why are they cheaper? Well you saw how Game 1 played out with San Antonio coming back twice from large deficits. Plus, everyone knows this is a do-or-die game for the Spurs, who when faced with a similar dilemma in Round One delivered with a resounding win at Dallas against the Mavericks. As you'll see in my analysis, I don't believe a repeat performance is in the cards tonight.
On Wednesday the free play is on the Seattle Mariners. Game 930 at 10:10 eastern. The Mariners have C.Lee making his second start of the season tonight. In his first start he picked up where he left off last year. Lee was dominating. He went 7 innings without allowing a run and surrendering just 3 hits. Tonight he takes on Tampa. In his last 3 starts vs the Rays he has been sensational, going 21 innings allowing just 3 earned runs and pitching to a 2.32 era overall. Tampa Bay has M.Garza making the start tonight, and while he has been good this year, he has been awful vs Seattle. Garza has a 9.17 era vs Seattle and has given up 15 earned runs, 25 hits and a whopping 5 home runs in just 10+ innings vs the Mariners. Tampa Bay has not won the last 3 years when the posted total is 7 or less in road games. The Mariners also have a solid 1.97 home bullpen era and are the beneficiaries of a road favorite system that plays against Tampa Bay tonight. The system pertains to the Rays win last night that saw then score 5 or more runs with 10+ men left on base. Look for Seattle to end their home losing streak here tonight behind C.Lee. GC
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