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The Yankees took Game One of this series last night in Boston to make it three in a row over the Red Sox but the value lies with the home team this afternoon in this huge rivalry game. Boston had its four-game winning streak snapped in the process and dropped back to .500 on the season. While the Yankees have owned this series dating back to last season with wins in 12 of the last 14 meetings, the situation sets up well for the Red Sox to get their second win against the Yankees this year. C.C. Sabathia has been outstanding over his last five outings as all have been quality starts but he now faced the team that he struggled against in his opening start of the year. Sabathia allowed five runs on six hits in 5.1 innings in a 9-7 loss on opening night and I would not be surprised to see another poor showing today. Three of his last four starts at Fenway Park have been rough ones as he has put up a 7.71 ERA and 1.54 ERA in those four games and four of his last seven starts against Boston overall have been non-quality outings, while his ERA over those seven games is a below average 4.91. The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last five games against left-handed starters and they are hitting .339 against southpaws over their last 10 games. Clay Buchholz has quietly put together a very solid season as he has a 2.97 ERA through his first five starts. He has pitched a little better on the road this season but he has a 3.86 ERA in 18 career starts at Fenway Park. He has never defeated the Yankees but two of his three starts have been quality and going back to last season Boston is 12-4 in his last 16 starts. 9* Boston Red Sox
This is a play strictly against Charlie Haeger. Right handed knuckleballer Haeger has been drilled in his last three starts. Colorado has the type of offense that can do some damage to that pitch, and they'll get to him early. J. Chacin for the Rockies had a very impressive debut against San Fran. on Sunday
DWAYNE BRYANT
NBA BEST BET: LA Lakers / Utah Jazz Under 202.5
Lakers / Jazz Under 202.5
These two had played to 7 straight UNDERS leading up to the start of this series. With totals of 198.5, both games at the Staples Center went Over. Now the series heads to Salt Lake City with an opening total of 203.5. That was quickly bet down to as low as 202 at some shops. These two squared off in Utah twice during the regular season and both games had a posted total in the 202.5 - 203 range. Both games went UNDER with final scores totaling 196 and 177. And it's not like they shot bad, posting 49% shooting and 45.4% shooting, respectively.
A similar situation occured in last year's playoffs. The Lakers faced the Jazz and took the first two games at home. The series shifted to Utah with the Jazz down 2-0 and a total of 213.5 was posted for Game 3. Utah, desperately in need of a win, clamped down on defense and held the Lakers to 36.8% shooting in an 88-86 victory (174 total points, 39.5 points UNDER the posted total). I don't know if Utah can hold LA to 37% shooting again (LA shot a combined 46.5% in the two meetings in Utah this season, but both games still stayed UNDER tonight's number), but I do expect an emphasis on defense tonight.
UNDER Trends: 4-0 in the Lakers' last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest; 12-4 in the Lakers' last 16 games as a road underdog; 11-4 in the Jazz's last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record; 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Utah; 7-2 in the last 9 meetings overall.
Bottom line: I'm a big believer in that (recent) history is a great indicator of future results. Teams fall into patterns in certain situations and I love when teams fall into distinct patterns when they play each other. Such is the case tonight. Grab the UNDER in this Lakers-Jazz matchup tonight.
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
Brett Cecil gets the nod from the Jays; he's coming off his best start of the year in which he took a perfect game into the seventh.
He's allowed just two runs and six hits in his last 14 innings and has 21 K's.
He's 1-0 against the White Sox in his career; he allowed three runs over six innings.
In the other dugout: Jake Peavy€ is coming off his best start of the year as well; he picked up his first win of the season as he threw seven shut out innings; he struck out nine and lowered his ERA to 6.31.
"I got what I was looking for," Peavy said. "This what I came here to do and it was nice to go out there and do what I know I'm capable of and now I just got to maintain this and keep putting together quality starts. Just have the season start from May on."
Bottom line: Toronto opened this series with a 2-0 win Thursday and improved to 5-0 on its 10-game trip with a 7-4, 12-inning victory Friday.
I believe Peavy is going to build off his latest performance and return to form and look for Cecil to also pitch deep into this game.
Expect a low-scoring affair in this one; 10* play on the UNDER!
8* Brewers / DBacks Under 10
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
Randy Wolf has been up and down so far this season and is 2-2 but with a decent 3.86 ERA.
Wolf is 8-3 all time against the Diamondbacks with a 4.38 ERA in 16 starts.
Keep in mind as well that Wolf was 7-4 with a 2.78 ERA on the road last season.
In the other dugout: Cesar Valdez made his major-league debut on Monday in Houston; he allowed one run on five hits in five innings; walked three and struck out two and earned the victory.
In four starts at Triple-A this year he posted a 3.80 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP with 25 K's in 23 2/3's innings.
Bottom line: Wolf is 6-0 with a 3.07 ERA in his last six starts at Chase Field for his longest winning streak in any ballpark.
This number is a bit high; look for the starters to throw deep into this one; 8* play on the UNDER!
8* Angels / Mariners Over 7.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":
Joe Saunders gave up seven runs on Monday over four innings against the Red Sox.
He allowed nine hits and two homers in a horrible 17-8 loss.
He walked four and struck out three; he is 1-5 with a 7.04 ERA on the year.
In the other dugout: Doug Fister gets the nod for the Mariners; he's been very good so far this year and has a 2-1 record with a 1.29 ERA.
However I expect a letdown today against a desperate Angels team.
Bottom line: LA is coming off an 8-0 win over the M's in Friday's se€ries opener which was their first win in May.
Seattle is also in the middle of a skid having lost seven straight; Seattle is batting .169 and has been outscored 40-9 during its longest slide dropping 12 straight from Sept. 11-22, 2008.
Both teams are desperate to score runs and turn things around offensively; although Fister has pitched well to this point, Saunders has really struggled with his control and I believe that will ultimately be the difference here; 8* play on the OVER!
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