5-12-10

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Re: 5-12-10

KIKI SPORTS

Wednesday May 12th

1 unit Atlanta +145
2 units Phily -115 (GAME 1 Halladay over Cook)
1 unit LA Dodgers -120
1 unit White Sox +120

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Baseball Prophet 5/12
Yankees ov 10-110 gm1

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TRASHPICKS


phillys -108

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BookieMonsters

Cardinals -155

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Craig Davis

50 Dime Phillies Run Line

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Re: 5-12-10

Mike Hook

Dime Bet

Baltimore (-116)

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exec mlb 250-t.bay

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Doc Sports NHL

3 units Boston 125

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INSIDER ANGLES
Hiroki Kuroda of the Los Angeles Dodgers has pitched very well in the early going, and while Edwin Jackson of the Arizona Diamondbacks has an atrocious 7.32 ERA and 1.70 WHIP, those numbers are skewed by two particularly bad outings, and he turned things around in his last start.

Kuroda is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA, and he began this season by allowing three earned runs or less in each if his first five starts. That streak was snapped in his last outing vs. Colorado where he surrendered four earned runs and nine hits in 5.1 innings, but he should bounce back well here vs. a Diamondbacks lineup that he has had tremendous success against.

In fact, Kuroda has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his seven career starts vs. Arizona, including his first appearance against them this season when he allowed two earned runs in seven innings with seven strikeouts and no walks. It also helps that the Snakes are batting just .236 vs. right-handed pitchers in the last 10 games.

As for Jackson, he got lit up in consecutive starts vs. the Cubs and Colorado, allowing a total of 18 runs in 6.1 innings! That will certainly take a long time to recover from as far as his statistics go, but he did regroup and record a Quality Start in his last outing on Friday, allowing three runs on only six hits in seven innings vs. the Milwaukee Brewers. There is nothing wrong with Jackson’s arm, so we look for him to build on that last effort here.

Finally, the Under was 12-5-3 in the last 20 head-to-head meetings between these teams entering play on Tuesday, and we look for that streak to continue here as this game stays in single-digits.

MLB Wednesday Pick: Dodgers, Diamondbacks Under 9.5

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VEGAS EXPERTS
Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies
Wedneday, May 11th, 8:40 ET
We’ll back the Rockies in Game Two of their double-header today against the Phillies. After facing Roy Halladay, seeing a slow pitcher like Moyer in the night cap will be a welcome change for the Colorado hitters. And while Hammel’s ERA is through the roof (9.16 ERA this season), much of that has to do with one dreaful outing a few weeks back where he allowed seven runs and couldn’t get through the second inning. Moyer owns a 1-6 team start record against the Rockies, and they’ll come through with a win in the nightcap!

Play on: Colorado Rockies

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DAVID MALINSKY

4* NY YANKEES/DETROIT GM 1 UNDER

So do we stay in play here? Yes. Going from a night game to a day game with less wind takes a little away, but getting Joel Zumaya out of a fatigue rating helps to counter balance that, as does Joe Girardi putting Alex Rodriguez in the DH role, which puts the weak bat of Ramiro Pena into the lineup. As for the rest, let’s just re-cap yesterday’s analysis verbatim, although the “wind” in the opening is no longer such an issue -

A cool, perhaps even cold, night in Detroit with the wind blowing in from left rarely brings this kind of Total into play. But that is what happens with the starting pitchers show tags of 1-3/9.78 and 2-3/7.50. But neither Javier Vazquez nor Rick Porcello are going to remain anywhere near those production levels, and that gives us excellent value to step in here.

Vazquez is coming off 10 straight seasons in which he has made at least 30 starts, with half of them resulting in an ERA of less than 4.00, and his 2.87 ERA and 9.8 K’s per 9 were career bests LY. So it is not as though he is going to fall off the table. We can anticipate an ERA climb as he goes from a favorable park for a flyball pitcher in Atlanta to Yankee Stadium, and some tougher A.L. ballparks for his style, but we will also see that same pop from his arm, and note that even in the disastrous bottom line so far he has recorded 20 K’s in 23 IP. Now he has been skipped for a start to get his head back in order, and the combination of tonight’s weather, and a Detroit offense that is tied for 24th in the Majors in home runs, bodes well for his correction to begin. And with no fatigue issues for any key bullpen arms the latter stages are in good hands.

Then there is Rick Porcello. To go from the 14-9/3.96 of his rookie to season to the current 2-3/7.50 looks like a precipitous drop, but take a closer look. In 2009 he had 2.74 W’s per 9, that has only gone to 3.0. In 2009 he had 4.69 K’s per 9, that is actually up to 5.70. In 2009 he allowed 1.21 HR’s per 9, that is down to 0.9. And once again he is keeping the ball down in the strike zone, with 2.42 ground ball outs for every fly-out. So what has gone wrong? A little bit of baseball geometry. There are 123 pitchers that have worked at least 30 innings, and his BABIP sits at #3, a .398 rate that will play back in his favor in the innings ahead. Behind him is a bullpen that has been the best in the Major Leagues so far in 2010, and with only Joel Zumaya carrying a fatigue rating there are plenty of good options for Jim Leyland in the end-game.

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Dave Cokin

Matchup: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Time: 12:35 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) BAILEY, H vs. (L) DUKE, Z

Play: Cincinnati (ML +101)

Homer Bailey was absolutely horrendous in his last start, and it's never easy to gauge whether the good Bailey or the bad Bailey will show up. But at least he's been good against the Pirates, posting a 4-0 career record with a dynamite 2.13 ERA. That's a plus for a guy who falls into the "head case" category, as he should take the mound with confidence for this game. Zach Duke has been ordinary for the most part for Pittsburgh. From a team standpoint, the Reds are the go with side as they're looking to wrap up a sweep and win for the fifth straight game. The price is not an obstacle, and I had the Reds on Tuesday in their 9-0 romp, so I've got no problem rolling right back with them here.

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Matchup: Atlanta at Milwaukee
Time: 1:10 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LOWE, D vs. (R) GALLARDO, Y

Play: Atlanta (ML +138)

Yovanni Gallardo has been immense for the Brewers so far this season, so trying to beat the talented Milwaukee ace is no easy task. And it's also true that Derek Lowe is not looking very good for the Braves thus far, with growing concern that the handsomely paid veteran might no longer be the reliable every fifth day starter he's been throughout most of his lengthy career. But I'm big on value, and I think there's a good deal of it here. Gallardo notwithstanding, the Brewers have been horrible at home and that makes them a very risky proposition at a price that has clearly been inflated off the starting pitchers. The Braves have been awful as road dogs this season, but with Ryan Braun very possibly out once again, the Brewers offense would take a huge hit. Road dogs looking to complete series sweeps have been stellar so far this season, and the Braves are suddenly swinging hot bats. I believe Atlanta is worth the gamble at this price, so the Braves are the choice.

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Triple Threat Sports

2* NY Yankees/Detroit OVER (Vazquez/Porcello)

Yanks skipped Vazquez the last time his day came up in the rotation, so it has been more than 10 days since pitched. That is usually not good for a pitcher, and especially since Vazquez has had ten days to stew over the fact that if he pitches poorly here he will likely lose his spot in the rotation. He has not really handled the pressures of New York well, and this is a very pressure packed situation, so we are not exactly confident he will do well here. The reason he was skipped is that he has managed just six innings in his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs in that span. His mound foe tonight, Porcello, not in great form either, as he has an 8.59 ERA in his last three starts, and in his lone career stark against the Yankees the Bronx Bombers lived up to their name, shelling Porcello en route to an easy win. This one shapes up as a wild one, so the Over is the way to go.

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R&R Totals

Yankees/Tigers GM 1 Over

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Nelly

Padres at Giants
Pick: Padres +165

Clayton Richard has far better numbers at home than on the road but consider that both of his road starts this season have come in tough environments, pitching in Colorado and in Cincinnati. While Richard has been better in his home starts he allowed just three runs in both road games and he has not allowed more than three runs in any start this season. Going back to last season that makes ten consecutive outings with three or fewer runs allowed and with 28 strikeouts already this season Richard looks on his way to becoming a very solid pitcher for the Padres even though his record stands at just 1-2 in the early going. San Diego is 17-7 in the last 24 games overall and the Padres are 7-3 in the last ten road games. Matt Cain is having another fine season but the Padres were able to have success against him earlier this season in an eventual win. While Cain has very good numbers, the Giants are just 3-3 behind him this season and just 3-11 in the last 14 meetings against the Padres with Cain on the mound. Cain has walked at least three batters in each of his last two starts and while San Diego does not own a strong batting average the Padres are averaging 4.4 runs per game. San Francisco is 10-6 at home this season but San Diego has won all four meetings between these teams in 2010. Both teams have excellent bullpens but San Diego has been better, featuring a 2.75 ERA for the year. Mark DeRosa will likely be unavailable for this game and the Giants are just 6-6 against left-handed starters this season compared with 12-7 against right-handers. This should be a very even match-up much like game 1 of the series and with exceptional underdog value San Diego is certainly worth a shot tonight.

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