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Steven Budin-CEO
SATURDAY'S PICK
The Philadelphia Crew has a 25 Dime Run Line release on San Francisco and Lincecum - 1 1/2 Runs over Houston and Oswalt. Game Time is set for 4:10 Easteon in San Francisco. As this selectioan is released at 10 AM Eastern, the Giants are anywoere from even money to -105 on the Run Line in Vegas and offshore as I check prices.
2-Unit Play. Take #932 Colorado (-1.5, -120) over Washington (2 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. Take #914 Colorado (-1.5, +125) over Washington (8 p.m.)
Note: This is a modified doubleheader chase. If we win Game 1 we don't make the Game 2 wager. I am very confident that we win Game 1.
1-Unit Play. Take #902 Chicago Cubs (-1.5, -120) over Pittsburgh (1 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #922 Tampa Bay (-1.5, -105) over Seattle (4 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #907 N.Y. Mets (+105) over Florida (7 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #924 Baltimore (-145) over Cleveland (7 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #920 N.Y. Yankees (-140) over Minnesota (1 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #918 Toronto (-145) over Texas (1 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #927 Chicago White Sox (-140) over Kansas City (7 p.m.)
Todays Totals
2.5-Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 Oakland at L.A. Angels (9 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take Under 8.0 Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (1 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take Over 9.0 Minnesota at N.Y. Yankees (1 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take Over 9.5 N.Y. Mets at Florida (7 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (7 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take Over 8.5 Cleveland at Baltimore (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 Arizona at Atlanta (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take Under 7.5 St. Louis at Cincinnati (7 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take Over 8.5 Washington at Colorado (2 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take Over 9.5 Philadelphia at Milwaukee (4 p.m.)
100* Play San Francisco (-200) over HoustonGame starts at 4:10 PM EST Tim Lincecum has won 7 of the last 8 games as a favorite of -200 or higher and he has also won 7 of the last 9 games when playing on a Saturday. Tim Lincecum is 3-0 vs. Houston over his career with an ERA of 1.37 and he is also 4-0 overall this season with an ERA of 1.86.
100* Play Tampa Bay (-200) over SeattleGame starts at 4:10 PM EST Seattle has lost 8 of the last 9 road games as an underdog of +100 or higher and they have also lost 9 of the last 12 games when playing in the month of May. Seattle pitcher, Jason Vargas has lost 8 of the last 10 road games and he has also lost 9 of the last 13 games as an underdog of +100 or higher.
100* Play St. Louis (-150) over CincinnatiGame starts at 7:10 PM EST Adam Wainwright has won 10 consecutive road games vs. division opponents and he is 5-1 this season with an ERA of 2.08. Cincinnati has lost 22 of the last 31 games when playing on a Saturday.
I am going with the Red Sox to take another game from the Tigers tonight. Here are a few trends that say they will. First, I have Red Sox as 16-2 SU since August 2007 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series. Also, the Red Sox are 21-4 SU since September 2007 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series. Next, we have Tigers as a poor 5-25 SU since May 2004 as a dog after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series. I also have a nice starter trend against the Tigers Dontrelle Willis that states he is 1-11 SU in game 2 or more of a series as a Dog and his opponent scored more than 6 runs in their previous game. Take the Red Sox for the win.
*200 Toronto Blue Jays -151
*200 LA Angels -140
*200 Chicago White Sox -140
Matchup: Minnesota at N.Y. Yankees
Time: 1:05 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) LIRIANO, F vs. (L) PETTITTE, A
Play: N.Y. Yankees (ML -128)
With all due respect to Francisco Liriano, this line is absurdly low. Liriano has been dynamite for the Twins, but as is so often the case, the bettors are looking only at the starting pitchers, and forgetting that this is a team game. Look at these numbers. The Yankees have now beaten the Twins in 51 of their last 67 meetings, including a 28-5 record when they're at home. Overall at Yankee Stadium, the champs are on a monster 49-11 run. The Twins could be pitching Sandy Koufax in his prime today and the number would still be too low. I always try and make the point that winning at baseball is all about playing value, and that's clearly the case here. I'll back Andy Pettitte and the Yankees at what I consider bargain basement odds.
Matchup: Cleveland at Baltimore
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) TALBOT, M vs. (L) MATUSZ, B
Play: Baltimore (ML -130)
The Orioles could not have been worse to start the season, but they're actually playing good baseball right now. Still, I'm only going to consider laying a price with them in very few situations. This happens to be one of them. Two callups from the minors have come up huge for the O's and it's transformed the team. First, Alfredo Simon gave them someone the team could have a little confidence in for the ninth inning, and that's absolutely huge for the entire staff, as it allows the pitchers to take the mound not thinking they need to be perfect. More recently, the Orioles sent out struggling Nolan Reimold and recalled veteran OF Corey Patterson. He's obviously thrilled to be back in the bigs and is red hot leading off for the O's. Beyond that, this is a good matchup for the hosts. Brian Matusz has pitched better than his record indicates and he's been good at home. Mitch Talbot has regressed to where I thought he'd be after a very surprising April run, and I have doubt about how long he'll be starting, even for the lowly Indians. Cleveland is awful on the road, sporting a miserable 7-27 record going back to last season. The Orioles are the team with the positive momentum, and I like Matusz and the O's to come away with the win win tonight.
Mike Hook | MLB Money Line Sat, 05/15/10 - 8:35 PM
dime bet ml 916 SDP (+101) Sportbet vs 915 LOS --Analysis:The San Diego Padres +101 is the 1 Unit Buried Treasure for Saturday, May 15th.
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Mike Hook | MLB Money Line Sat, 05/15/10 - 7:10 PM
double-dime bet ml 907 NYM (+105) Bookmaker.com vs 908 FLA ----------Analysis: The New York Mets +105 is the DOUBLE STAR Play of the Day for Saturday, May 15th!
jeff benton saturday (BIGGEST MLB RELEASE OF HIS CAREER)
1-0 yesterday...he wont with the blue jays for PLUS 20 dimes..overall, 37-41-3 for PLUS 5 dimes since i started posting....
BIGGEST BASEBALL PLAY OF HIS CAREER.
50 Dime play - the biggest ever I've releaaed in baseball in my career - on the Boston Red Sox - 1 1/2 runs with Jon Lester over the Detroit Tigers and Dontrelle Willis. Both schedeuled starters must pitch or this play is obviousoy null and void.
Red Sox (-1½ runs)
Give Dontrelle Willis credit – after struggling for several years with his control, the veteran lefty appears to have finally become a serviceable major league pitcher once again. He’s 1-1 with a 3.99 ERA in five starts with the Tigers, and while he has walked 15 batters in 29 1/3 innings, he hasn’t issued more than three free passes in any start.
All that said, of the two left-handed pitchers on the mound in this game, 100 scouts out of 100 would take Jon Lester in a split-second over the D-Train. And Lester’s last four performances show why: After getaing off to yet another slow starts – he gave up 15 runs in 16 innings while in his first three games (all Boston losses) – Lester has turned things around in a big way in his last four outings, allowing a grand total of three runs, 14 hits and 10 walks while whiffing 30 in 27 2/3 innings (0.96 ERA).
The Red Sox prevailed in all four games by a combined tally of 20-7, including Sunday’s 9-3 victory over the Yankees (a huge win that kept Boston from being swept at home by its hated rivals). By winning Lester’s last four starts, the Sox are now 61-29 in his last 90 starts overall. And of their last 23 wins behind Lester, 21 have been by multiple runs, including 13 of the last 14.
Back to Willis real quick: This truly is a big litmus test to see how far he’s come. Because not only will he be facing a quality and patient Boston lineup (on that’s batting .280 against left-handed pitching this season inclueding .301 in the last 10 games), but he’s also coming off a long break. Willis was scratched from Monday’s start against the Yankees (illness), so he hasn’t been on the mound for 10 days. Will his wildness return after such a lengthy layoff? I wouldn’t be surprised.
Also, while the Red Sox have enjoyed facing lefty pitching this year, Detroit has not. Despite beating CC Sabathia 6-0 on Thursday, the Tigers are still batting just .233 at home against left-handers (and .230 over the past 10 games).
Finally, look at what the Red Sox have done to Detroit recently: With Friday’s 7-2 blowout victory, Boston has now won 39 of the last 55 meetings, including 12 of the last 15 overall and five straight in D-Town. During their recent 12-3 run against the Tigers since the beginning of the 2008 season, 11 of the victories (including all seven in Detroit) have been by multiple runs.
Throw in the fact we’re assured of the Red Sox (as the road team) getting all nine turns at bat, and I’ll confidently ride Lester and Boston to another comfootable Motown win here.
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