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Saturday's Plays
15 Dime play on the Celtics minus the points at home against Orlando. As this play is releasnd at 1:00 AM Pacific, Boston is a solid -3 1/2 here in Vegas and most places offshore - except that one notoriocus place that always charges you extra it seems when you're playing a chalk. In either case, go ahead and buy down the half point with Boston. This number will only go up as the day goes on so get down early and buy down early.
5 Dime play on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Jackson over Toronto and Eveland. Make sure you specify both schedulnd starters in this contest.
Analysis
I don't buy into the fact that THIS is the "must win, do-or-die game" for Orlando. That game has come and gone and it was the Game 2 loss at home which put the Magic in an 0-2 hole heading to Boston. I told you after the Game 1 loss they were toast in the series and advised you to bet the Celtics on the adjusted series price of -110 prior to Game 2.
This will not be a repeat of Game 3 of the Cleveland-Boston series when the Cavaliers came to Beantown and smoked the Celtics. Remember, that series was tied at one game apiece. Yet that's what the oddsmakers would have you expect based on the price of this game, which was -3 as of Thursday and has stabilized around 3 1/2 Friday night/Saturday morning (although I do see a -4 at that one notorious offshore sportsbook known for making you pay more for chalks).
Why are the Celtics priced so cheaply? Because the linemakers know the public is buying into the Orlando "must win, do-or-die game" mentality; there's not need to give the Magic more points.
Consider this: In Games 1 and 2 at home, Orlando was laying 7 to 7 1/2. Now up 2-love in the series, the Celtics are laying only 3 1/2 or so at home. To me, that's a bargain as I feel the C's should be a solid 6 1/2 point choice here in Vegas.
In Game 2, Dwight Howard got it going offensivecly with 30 points, yet his team still lost at home. And the Celtics prevailed despite Ray Allen meager four-point total, which was 21 less than he scored in Game 1. And Boston took the first two games in Orlando despite Garnett scoring a total of 18 points, which is what he averaged per game in the previous series against Cleveland. But Garnett has been getting the job done with defense, holding Rashard Lewis is check.
Forget about the fact Boston was a mediocre 24-17 SU at home during the regular season. That was a different team. The Celtics you're seeing now are a group of veterans two years removed from winning a championship who smell blood, knowing they're two games away from a possinle date with the Lakers most likely. And this edition of the Celtics, compared to the regular season version, has a healthy Kevin Garnett.
I covered the NBA long enough as a writer to know one thing for certain: You never discount a veteran team that gains confidence with a deep run in the playoffs. It's like muscle memory for these guys; been there, done it before; can do it again.
In Boston's last 23 games - and 33 of the last 43 in all - the SU winner on the floor has earned the cash in Vegas. Same trend rolls for the Magic: The SU winner in their games has covered nine in a row and 17 of 18. Hard to go against history today - or the Celtics at home. No rout today, but a solid seven-point win for Boston
Saturday's winner...
400-Unit NBA Eastern Conference E-Z Winner - BOSTON CELTICS
Since about the midway point of Game 4 against the Cavaliers, the Celtics have looked like the team that won the NBA championship two seasons ago. These guys have been playing lock-down defense and running their offense to near-perfection. Tonight, they are back at home for Game 3 of this series against the Magic and they have befuddled Orlando through the first two games.
Over the last five games, the Celtics have allowed just 88 points a game and held the opposition to 40.2 percent shooting, including 28 percent shooting from the beyond the three-point line. They have completely shut down the two big energy and big shot guys from Orlando in this one in Rashard Lewis and Michael Pietrus. Holding those two down and not letting them get the open three-pointers is key to holding down the Magic.
If they can get their shots down, then the middle does not open up for Dwight Howard. And Boston has done a great job on the boards in this series, winning the rebounding edge on Tuesday 38-36.
The Tuesday win came with Ray Allen going just 1-for-6 from the field and managing just four points. Only 10 points from Kevin Garnett and the Celtics still won, thanks to great play from Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo. At home, those outside shots from Allen and Garnett will fall and this game might turn into a blowout.
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games, 7-3 ATS as a favorite of up to 4 ½ points and 4-1 as a home favorite. Orlando is just 1-5-1 ATS as a road ‘dog and 1-4 in the last five matchups with the Celtics.
The Celtics are playing their best basketball of the season and as healthy as they’ve been in two seasons. Lay the chalk at home and go with the red-hot Celtics in this one. Play Boston.
30 Dime Winner on the BOSTON CELTICS over the Orlando Magic. The Celtics are laying -3½ to -4 points both in Vegas and offshore. Shop around for the best price!
10 Dime Winner on the ATLANTA BRAVES -1 ½ RUNS over the Pittsburgh Pirates with Derek Lowe and Charlie Morton as the listed pitchers. If either pitcher does not start, this play is VOID.
30 Dime –
CELTICS
Take the Celtics minus the points tonight in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Boston is just too deep and talented in the paint for Orlando to do anything about it. I know Dwight Howard had a monster game on Tuesday, but the fact of the matter is Orlando was at home in a must-win situation and still lost.
The Celtics will continue to rotate their big men on Howard and when he gets frustrated he’s going to get into foul trouble and that’s going to be it for the Magic.
Besides, the best player during the playoffs so far this year has been Rajon Rondo. There aren’t too many players out there who can match what he’s done so far and nobody has an answer for him.
Toss in the fact the Celtics are playing at home and you have almost insurmountable odds against the Magic here.
I’m sure the NBA would love to see a long series here for ratings purposes, but the plain truth is the Celtics are playing better than anyone in the East and they have the motivation to put a stranglehold on the series tonight.
Take the Celtics minus the points as they grab the win and the 3-0 series lead.
Saturday winners ...
My 40-Dime Winner is on the Orlando Magic in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. And as I relnase this play at 5 a.m. eastern, I notice the Magic are catching 3.5 points across the board. I want you to purchase the half-point, and take this line up tonight. As always, the prices vary from shop to shop so be sure to get the best line posscible after reading my analysis on this game.
ANALYSIS
Magic - I'm not ready to write off Orlando even though the Magic are down 2-0 in the series, having lost by a combnned seven points in two home games.
I had Boston in both of those games, but I'm on Orlando in this Game 3. The road team has covered the past seven times in this series.
The Magic shot 41.6 percent from the floor in Game 1 and followed that up by making only 39.4 percent from the field in Game 2. They are a combinced 12-for-40 from 3-point range.
Some of that, of course, has to do with Boston's tough defense. But Rashard Lewis is much better than the 4-for-16 he's shot so far. He's missed some open shots.
The teams last played on Tuesday. The Celtics are feeling complacent and overconfident. The Magic are desperate. They've used the extra preparation time to work on plays for Lewis and to make defensive tweaks. They'll be using Matt Barnes more on Paul Pierce now, for instance. Barnes has expernence guarding Pierce, who is averaging 24 points in the series. Barnes has the reputation of being a lock-down defender.
"Either game could have gone either way," Celtics coach Doc Rivers was quoted as saying. "This series is going to be that way. There's not going to be a game where there's a comfort. Both teams are very good, both teams are very close, both teams are very similar in a lot of way."
Rivers is right. This is a pick'em type of matchup. I'll gladly accept these points plus buy an extra half point for even more insurance.
Just look at the history of these two clubs:
The Magic defeated Boston in the playoffs last year in seven games, winning Game 7 on the road by 19 points. Orlando has covered in its last six away matchups.
Orlando has beaten the Celtics five of the past seven times in Boston, including
both times at TD Garden during the regular season.
The Celtics were 26-15 on the road, but just 24-17 at home. They are not that great of a home team. Orlando, in fact, had a better road record than Boston's home mark. The Magic are 4-0 straight-up and ATS on the road in the playoffs this season.
Recall that the Celtics also won Game 2 during their series against Cleveland, but were blown out, 124-95, by the Cavaliers at home in Game 3.
The Magic aren't ready to die. They'll prove it here. And don't forget to purchase the half point and take the line up with this underdog.
triple-dime bet 509 ORL 3.5 (-110) Sportbet vs 510 BOS
Analysis:
Orlando + 3.5 game at 8:35 pm
THE MAGIC ARE NOT DONE YET
let's break this baby down:
We feel that the public 76% AS OF 9 AM will play against the Magic tonight as the magic do own a nice solid 7-1 SU and 6-2 ats mark on 3 days rest and the JR O POWER RATINGS have this baby at the Magic - 2 a huge 6 point over lay. The winning continues with the O Magic here . Huge locker room material with the Paul Pierce comments last game will rally the Troops from Orlando. Game 3. The magic o~wn a nice
29-16 straight up road record. Stan Van Gundy has the Magic focused and ready and the Orlando Magic will cover this # tonight
dime bet 509 ORL 4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 510 BOS
Analysis:
Orlando +4
Well the better team so far is at home but the line value at +4 is so glaring to me, I think Orlando makes their best effort of the series in this one. I am unclear of why Orlando cannot get it done outside while Howard commands double teams, but I€ am putting faith in fundamentals and Rashard Lewis this game to step up and keep Orlando in it. Orlando is 6-0 ATS on the road their last 6, and 6-0 ATS against a home team with a winning record and they won 2 in here already. Boston alittle cocky headed into this one, I like their chances of getting a game here and Orlando putting it all on the line. Look for 4 points here..it is at about half the books I looked at today. A stretch against a team who has stunk it up, but I just have a feeling on this one guys, I have seen it before.
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