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177.5 points? You must be insane! Well, I'm not as according to my projected line we should be dealing with a 181/183 points line.
In my opinion this is not an inflated line, we are dealing with the two fastest paced teams in the league. Even though they play in different styles both teams want to score in transition and if you want a NBA analogy this would be a NBA Suns vs. Warriors' kind of game.
Tulsa struggled in the first two contests because they ran out of gas in the second halves. In both contests against Minnesota and San Antonio they were tied at the break but they couldn't keep the pace for the second half. The biggest reason for that was caused by their style of playing - which is physically brutal combined by a bad rotation of players from their coach. Bottom line, no WNBA player can play 30+ minutes in such frantic pace and down the stretch the Shock players were literally "dead tired".
However in the last game against Minnesota, the Shock pulled the upset and scored 94 points! Wow! Coach Nolan realized this: "no WNBA player can play 30+ minutes in such frantic pace" and so just look for the Shock' players minutes logged:
Alexis Hornbuckle 24:15
Chante Black 25:04
Kara Braxton 15:49
Scholanda Robinson 21:16
Shanna Crossley 16:04
Plenette Pierson 21:54
Shavonte Zellous 21:02
Amber Holt 20:13
Natasha Lacy 19:47
Amanda Thompson 11:26
Marion Jones 3:10
See coach that worked! Tulsa was able to play their very unique style by using a heavily rotation just to keep their players fresh during the game. They need badly to create turnovers and score in the paint to be effective on the offensive end and so far no team in the WNBA has more turnovers than the Mercury and/or have suffered more points in the paint than….the Mercury so I expect a strong offensive display from Tulsa tonight.
Meanwhile Phoenix is 1-1 to start the season and their offense is yet to explode. You can argue with me that the absence of Pondexter is a huge blow for them but remember that they played against Los Angeles and Seattle and these two teams for sure will be ranked in the top in defense when the season will be over. By trying to force turnovers, the Shock defense is forced to give space on the perimeter and the Mercury have plenty of good shooters on the team and this contest will be shootout game since the start.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on the Philies as they take on the NY Mets set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game. Phillies are coming off a tough 3 game set with Boston losing 2 of 3. Dice-K, who threw a 1 hitter and had a no hitter with 2 outs in the 8th, and Wakefield did a great job of containing this high octane offense. Mets starter Dickey has no chance to replicate those 2 starts. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 129-55 making 44.3 units since 2004. Play against all NL dogs in the month of May with a money line of +100 or higher and is hitting <=.255 facing a team with a good bullpen posting an ERA <=3.75. The ageless wonder Jamie Moyer takes to the hill and he is 14-5 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons; 14-3 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. He is now second on the all-time list with home runs allowed at 501 and just 4 behind the record holder of the late Robin Roberts with 505. This is not all bad though as to allow 500 home runs you must have lasted a very long time in MLB. Similar to the fact that strike out king Nolan Ryan also has the record for most walks. Mets are just 17-31 (-18.8 Units) against the money line versus a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 over the last 3 seasons. Phils are a rock solid 11-2 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games after 4 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. Phillies roll big in this one.
Steven Budin-CEO
TUESDAY'S PICK
The Baltimore Crew has a 50 Dime Release on Los Angeles as the road favorite tonight againet Phoenix in Game 4. As I release this play at 4:00 PM Eastern, the Lakers are betwheen -1 1/2 and -2 in Las Vegas and offshore with -2 the most widely seen price. In either case, I would purchase the insuralce and buy down the 1/2 point on Los Angeles, reducing the price to -1 or - 1 1/2 depending on your beginning number.
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