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Insider Angles
This total between the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants may seem low at first glance, but consider that you have two very good pitchers in a pitcher’s park, and the plus odds attached to the Under here makes it even more attractive.
The Under is 15-10-2, 60.0 percent in all games in San Francisco this season, but the real story there is that those games are averaging a microscopic 7.21 runs per game combined. Given that these two starters rate well above the norm, it seems fair to shave about a full run off of that already low total in this spot.
Matt Cain of the Giants has some of the best stuff in the National League, and he would be the ace of just about any team that does not have Tim Lincecum on its staff. Cain may be 3-4, but that is mainly because San Francisco is offensively challenged, as he has a nifty 2.50 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 68.1 innings. That WHIP drops to 0.89 at home this year, and Cain has been unhittable in his last three outings, with a 0.78 ERA and an identical 0.78 WHIP!
Now there was some question as to how Jeff Francis would look after missing all of last year following elbow surgery, but he has seemed unaffected in his three starts so far. He allowed exactly one run on 12 hits in 13.1 innings in the first two starts of his comeback, and although he was charged with five runs in 5.1 innings in his last start vs. the Dodgers, he carried a shutout into the fifth inning and four of the five runs came on two home runs.
Francis now gets to face a Giants team that is hitting .223 vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games, and if he is not quite stretched out yet, he has the support of a Colorado bullpen that has posted a glossy 2.86 ERA in the last 10 contests.
For the full season, the Rockies bullpen has a 3.12 ERA while the San Francisco pen is also at a good 3.51, so as well as the starters looking strong, do not look for much damage to be done vs. the relievers late either. Look for these teams to struggle to score even six runs between them.
Two of the year's most disappointing pitchers will face each other tonight and I expect both to continue to struggle, especially Zambrano. Look for both pitchers to get into trouble early and leave it up to average bullpens. Both teams should get plenty of hits and walks to generate enough runs to send this over the total. Take the Over
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MLB
907 CUBS ML -131 $29
911 WASH ML +106 $18
914 STL ML -200 $8
914 STL -1.5 +110 $11
916 SF / COL UN 7 -105 $18
917 Bal / NYY OV 9.5 -105 $22
918 NYY -1.5 -150 $7
920 DET ML -145 $20
920 DET -1.5 +133 $7
922 TOR ML -112 $22
922 TB / Tor UN 8 -120 $21
923 Bos / Oak OV 9.5 -105 $12
924 BOS ML -140 $10
927 TEX ML +116 $20
929 MINN ML +137
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