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AAA Sports Handicapping
Daily Posted Picks Money Management Daily Posted Picks
AAA Sports is on an 20-19, Best Bet Run. Diamond Plays on a 6-1 and 14-5 Run.
Boston RedSox/Baltimore Orioles Over 9 -120: The Posted line of 9.5 is skewing heaftily downward and that gives us a Buying Opp down to 9 if we choose to do so. That is what I am choosing for this one although I like this play at either line. These RedSox are Scoring in droves, at least 8 plated over their last 6 games, and 9 has been obtained in all of those. They are especially Making Lefties Miserable, batting at the .333 mark over their last 10 played. I keep hearing good things about the Oās Starter but I keep seeing bad things. This guy is making a lot of mistakes in the K-Zone right now and paying dearly for it, with 4 Dingers over his last 4 games. OBP is High for his this year. John Lackey can be capable but he has not been so lately as he has been very hittable. Consider this. His last 5 thrown games have featured 43 Hits in 30.1 Innings OUCH! Letās not discuss the Oās Pen as we know what is going on there and they are looking more and more like Chimpanzees with arms dragging on the ground from lotās of work. My Model tells me that 9 will be had here at a whopping 64.3% of the time and since I handicap totals to at least push, that is a strong number
double-dime bet 927 MIN / 928 OAK Under 8 BetUS
Analysis: Stan is Betting MINNESOTA/OAKLAND UNDER today. Being a Day Game and the fact that Minnesota starter Nick Blackburn is on the mound Stan is betting this game to go UNDER the total. In Blackburn's last 21 starts on the roaād on a grass field he has Gone UNDER in 16 of 21 Games. TAKE MINNESOTA/OAKLAND UNDER as STAN'S WISE GUY GAME OF THE WEEK.
Game : Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) 04:10pm EST
Prediction : Colorado Rockies -1.5 / Ubaldo Jimenez must start
Analysis : Best pitcher in baseball this year has been without a doubt Jimeninez for Rockies. In fact his ERA is best ever after first 10 starts 0.73 ERA. Even better for us Diamondbacks the last 10 games have really struggled at the plate only scoring an average of 2.8 runs per game. Starting for Diamondbacks is Lopez who has a 4 plus ERA and really has been up and down. Rockies will be patient and get to Lopez for at least 4 runs which will be plenty since Jimeninez will not give up more than 1 run.
REDUCE the spread for the Lakers and the total points 4 POINTS. Basically when you do this, you're getting the Lakers @ -2 and the OVER on the total points @ 186.
NBA Total Sun, 06/06/10 - 8:05 PM
dime bet 703 BOS / 704 LAL Under 191.5 Bodog
Analysis: Game two is going to be all about defense.
The difference from game one, though, is that Boston is going to play some, too!
There aren't a ton of adjustments that Boston can make between games one and two without completely throwing their chemistry out of whack, but a few small changes can make a big difference in tonight's total.
First, Boston is going to concentrate harder on preventing the Lakers from hammering the offensive glass. The Lakers dominated Boston in rebounding. The final disparity, 42-to-31 doesn't appear as severe as it actually was, thanks to some missed shots by the Lakers to open the 4th quarter, and thanks to Boston taking quite a few free throws (which clearly cuts down on rebounding opportunities for LA). But, the Lakers edge in 2nd chance points, and how EASY most of those second chance points were to score is the real issue that Boston needs to address. The Lakers were able to penetrate the lane, and that freed up Pau Gasol for multiple tip-ins, which not only ran the total of the game 4-6 points higher than it should have been on those buckets alone, it also created a fatigue in Boston that continued to negatively impact their effort on defense.
I expect a much stronger effort from Boston in this one in the hustle department. They're going to get to those rebounds, and Boston has talked between games about tipping some of those rebounds near the rim out towards the baseline. That would, if nothing else, force the Lakers to work for those 2nd chance points, and give Boston's defense a chance to reset. I also expect Boston to fight a bit harder on those broken plays, and get a few 2nd chance points, themselves. I know that seems like an unimportant point, but if Boston keeps this game close, the tempo is going to remain ULTRA-slow for even longer, and Boston's fight and ability to keep this game close might, in fact, be the single most important factor in the final total.
The other small change Boston is looking at that should help our cause is the use of the double-team. The Celtics sent additional defenders at Kobe Bryant repeatedly, and thanks to the triangle, the Lakers were able to do a lot of their scoring out of the set offense from the perimeter. Long shots lead to long rebounds, 2nd chance points, easy buckets, and because the Lakers are so efficient, quite a few open looks. If Boston goes back to playing man defense, the Lakers will go to their interior advantage more often. Kobe doesn't want to tire himself out in the 2nd quarter, and we can expect a lot of post play from Gasol and Bynum in the first half. Close range shots mean short rebounds, slow-developing possessions, and lower scores. Plays developing in the post also means that Boston can keep a body on a player, and should improve their defensive rebounding.
Yes, these changes probably mean that Kobe Bryant scores MORE than the 30 he put up in game one, but it also means that Boston is going to work very hard to limit Gasol's impact.
There will also NOT be a double-technical foul in the first minute of action. I don't think I'm going out on a limb with that note. The referees won't have to work hard from the openiā°ng tip to keep the game under control, and the free throws that drastically impacted the total in game 1. I strongly believe that this one is going to be a more classic NBA Finals slugfest, with the winner the first team to 90.
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