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Date: 6.7.10 at 8:05PM
Game: Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Current Line: Seattle (-116)
Over/Under: 8.5
Play On: Seattle (-116)
Inside the Board Room:
Any time we can get a Cy Yound award winner for under -125 it is worth a look. And, in today's matchup at Rangers ballpark, we have Cliff Lee at just more than even money. Lee started slowly because of an injury but has really pitched well in his last two starts, both wins. Lee has given up just 3 runs in his previous two starts. Yes, the Mariners are terrbile on the road and the Rangers are strong on their home field, but, Rangers starter Scott Feldman has done one thing consistently so far this season - allow at least 3 runs. You have to go all the way back to the 2nd week of the season to find a start where Feldman has given up less than 3, ironcially against these same Mariners! Still, we think that Lee gives up less than 3 today and Feldman keep true to May and June form. . . so . . .
Take Cliff Lee and the Mariners tonight!
0-2 MINUS 40 dimes yesterday....overall 52-59-3 MINUS 150 dimes. he won 30 dimes on saturday, and gave it back and then some losing 40 dimes on sunday..
Monday's Winner ... 15 Dime: TEXAS RANGERS ... NOTE: Stay with this play regardless of any changes to the starting pitchers
Rangers
I love Cliff Lee, but he’s never had much success pitching in Texas, there’s just no way the Mariners can be favored on the road against anyone, especially a quality hitting team like the Rangers.
Seattle has just seven wins in 24 road games this season, and when you throw in its final three roadies of 2009, the team is in a 7-20 slump on the highway. On the flip side, Texas has won 13 of its last 17 home games to improve to 20-10 at Rangers Ballpark. And the home-road splits are glaring: While the Mariners bat .237 on the road, Texas hits .294 at home; while the Mariners have a 4.46 ERA on the road (5.57 bullpen ERA), Texas has a 3.88 ERA at home (4.00 bullpen ERA).
The Rangers have owned Seattle this season, too, winning five of six meetings (those five wins came by a combined score of 26-8). In fact, the Mariners’ only win against Texas this year was a ninth-inning comeback (they trailed 3-1 and scored three runs in the ninth).
As for Lee’s history pitching in Texas, he’s given up 33 earned runs in 32 1/3 innings over six starts, posting a 9.19 ERA with the Rangers hitting .338 against him in Texas. The last two times he pitched at Rangers Ballpark, Lee gave up a combined 13 runs on 19 hits in 10 innings. And even though Lee pitched well against Texas in a game in Seattle on April 30 (three hits, no walks, eight Ks in seven shutout innings), he had nothing to show for it as the Mariners never scored in a 2-0 loss.
So why is Lee favored tonight? Two reasons: Because of his reputation, and because Texas right-hander Scott Feldman has struggled to build off a successful 2009 campaign. Feldman is 3-5 with a 5.82 ERA, but his best outing of the season came against the Mariners on April 11 when he gave up two runs (one earned) in seven innings of a 9-2 home victory. This after going 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA in four starts against Seattle last year (including two home wins when he surrendered a combined three runs and nine hits in 13 1/3 innings).
The Rangers are 4-2 in Feldman’s six home starts this year, they’ve won four straight games against left-handed starters and five straight home games vs. lefties (FYI, Texas is hitting .333 against southpaw pitching over the past 10 games). And in the last 66 Mariners-Rangers battles in the Lone Star State, Texas has come out on top 46 times!
Throw in the Mariners’ 5-18 slump against A.L. West rivals – including just losing three straight at home to the Angels over the weekend – and you gotta love Texas as a home ‘dog in this one.
Matchup: Houston at Colorado
Time: 8:40 PM EDT (Mon)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) RODRIGUEZ, W vs. (R) HAMMEL, J
Play: Houston (ML +150)
The Astros are obviously a lousy team, and one of their biggest disappointments to date has been the mediocre performances of Wandy Rodriguez. He's been way less than expected all season. But the lefty with the nasty hook may finally have turned the corner in his last start, as he looked much more like the Rodriguez who frustrated hitters for much of last season. Another plus for Houston here is that they're finally getting a little production from the meat of their order. The Rockies are clearly the better team and they're at home. But Jason Hammel is beatable and if Wandy has found his stuff, the Astros will be very live tonight. It's a big enough price to warrant going for the upset with the Houston side.
Matchup: Atlanta at Arizona
Time: 9:40 PM EDT (Mon)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LOWE, D vs. (R) HAREN, D
Play: Arizona (ML -119)
The Diamondbacks are another lousy team, but most of the problems for the Snakes are centered around two major deficiencies. One is their horrendous discipline offensively, as the team is on yet another record-breaking pace for strikeouts. Secondly, their bullpen has been beyond awful far too frequently. But there are a few positives to find here. At the top of that list might well be that ace Dan Haren finally looked like a top of the rotation pitcher last time out, and I'm banking on Haren backing that effort up with another good showing tonight. Also, despite the fact that Derek Lowe is off his own outstanding start, I believe the Braves could be a bit flat coming out of a tense and tough series with the Dodgers, and before that their big sweep of the Phillies. I don't often look to lay even a small price with Arizona, but this looks like a good spot and I'll be backing the Diamondbacks tonight.
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