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Tony George | MLB Money Line Wed, 06/09/10 - 10:10 PM
dime bet 966 LOS (-112) Bodog vs 965 STL
Analysis:
LA Dodgers -112
Although the game on Tuesday was a 1-0 Dodger win, they have outscored the Cards 13-4 so far in 2 games in this series, and were able to get the win against Carpenter last night. This will be a low scoring game, but southpaw Kershaw takes the hill for LA and has a 2.55 ERA his last 3. The Cards hitting has been erratic AT BEST AND THEY HAVE STRUGGLED ALL YEAR AGAINST GOOD LEFT HANDERS, AND EVEN IN THEIR LAST 10 GAMES HAVE STRUGGLED. This is the key to game! Wainwright is a stud pitcher for the Cards, but with LA looking to sweep at home, I think they get more run support in this one than the Cards. The total is 6.5 runs, the under might be worth a look as well. Cards just 3-7 on the road their last 10, and LA is hot winning 22 out of 29.
Play 1 Unit on the Dodgers, thanks and good luck TG
dime bet 979 ANA / 980 OAK Over 8 BetUS
Analysis:
10:05pm ET / Los Angeles Angels with Saunders @ Oakland Athletics with Braden
Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
2 Unit Play. #959 Take Chicago Cubs -110 over Milwaukee (8:10 p.m., Wednesday June. 9)
The Brewers took Game 1 in this series but tonight Milwaukee throws out Randy Wolf and Wolf has had troubles this year. Chicago is a PERFECT 4-0 on the road against a left-handed starter. Big Z gets a road victory for the Cubs tonight and even up this series.
4 Unit Play. #978 Take Minnesota -1 ½ +110 over Kansas City (8:10 p.m., Wednesday June. 9)
The Twins are red hot at home and Minnesota has won 5 straight at Target Field and tonight again they get to play the Kansas City Royals. Last night the Twins beat the Royals 7-3 and we had the Twins so tonight we take Minnesota on the run-line and we cash two straight nights with the Twins. Minnesota is 16-5 in their last 21 meetings against the Royals
4-Unit Play. Take #964. Take Arizona Diamondbacks -120 over Atlanta Braves (Wednesday @ 9:40pm est)
Let's roll with a side today as the Diamondbacks face my Bravos at home. The Dbacks won the first game in the series but fell short in game two by a score of 5-7 yesterday. They face Kenshin who is now officially 0-8 and is the first Brave since its 85 year history to start the season 0-8. Having said that his highest strikeout count has come against the diamondbacks earlier this year when he struck out seven and didn't factor into the decision. The Braves ended up winning that game 5-6. These two pitchers were both on the mound for that game and Ian Kennedy probably remembers that his team was the short end of the stick when he was on the mound in that contest. Don't get me wrong, Kenshin has gotten better of late although he had a rough patch against the Dodgers in his last game. But, Bobby obviously has enough faith in him in that he is keeping the team in the game to keep giving him the ball when its his turn in the rotation. But, its tough to ignore Ian's consistency as he has put together 6 of 7 quality starts and he is pitching at home, where he has given up just eight runs in 29 innings which is equivalent to just over three complete games and giving up less than three runs per ballgame. With Arizona coming off a loss and with the Diamondbacks having had some success against Kenshin as they did hit him for several runs in their first time facing him, I like Arizona to get an early jump today. The Dbacks are 5-0 when they are home favorites of late and the Braves are 0-5 when Kenshin starts as a road dog.
Players NHL *10* Wednesday PHILLY on 9 June
Scott Rickenbach’s NHL 10* (TOP PLAY) Philadelphia Flyers (-) vs Chicago @ 8 ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
The home team has won every game in this series but, once again, the Flyers are being given very little respect there. After opening up in the -130 price range the Flyers are down around the -115 range as of Wednesday morning. This is offering great line value to a team that, other than the first period of game five in Chicago, has really looked every bit as talented as the Blackhawks have in this series. Philadelphia simply did not skate well at all in Game Five. It was if they couldn’t come down off of the emotional high of winning those two big games in Philly. Rest assured, they will come out skating hard in this one from the drop of the opening puck. Philadelphia has been fantastic on home ice ever since the calendar turned the page from 2009 to 2010 back on January 1st. Included in their huge run on home ice is a fantastic 9-1 mark in the playoffs. Also, we fully expect goalie Michael Leighton to bounce back (as he’s done all post-season long) from a rough game in Chicago in Game Five.
While some feel this series is over it truly is anything but. Remember the Penguins got blown out on the road in Game Five last season and were down 3-2 in the series heading into a Game Six home game. As you will recall, the Penguins came back to win the next two games after the Game Five blowout and Sidney Crosby and company ended up hoisting the Stanley Cup. The Flyers have been resilient this season, especially in the playoffs, and they have often been at their best when their backs are against the wall or they’re counted out. Chris Pronger will bounce back after a very rough Game Five in Chicago and we just don’t see any quit coming from the Flyers players. They still believe and, of course, that is critical to their continued success tonight which we fully expect to see. The Flyers are 20-10 this season in a home game where the total is 5.5 goals. The Flyers are also 7-3 this season when playing with two days rest. Of course, Chicago also has plenty of good numbers to look at as well but the Flyers have played so well on home ice this year we fully expect a huge effort especially after the bashing Philly took in Chicago, including with the media there and the Pronger incident in the Chicago papers. That just adds even more fuel to the fire for a hungry home team that’s low price is offering huge value. Play Philadelphia on the money line as a *10* Top Play selection.
Players MLB *10* Wednesday OVER in ChiSox on 9 June
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in Chicago-AL vs Detroit @ 8:10 ET: Garcia vs Porcello – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
The wind is expected to be blowing out at US Cellular Field in Chicago tonight. Last night these two teams just missed going over the total but we do not expect a repeat of that tonight. Rick Porcello of the Tigers has struggled mightily on the road this season. Porcello, away from home, is 1-3 with a 7.78 ERA this season and he’s been pounded at a .376 clip! Note that Porcello also is 0-2 in his career against the White Sox and he’s compiled an ugly 6.65 ERA against the Pale Hose. Note that the Tigers right-hander has struggled in his night starts this season as Porcello has compiled an ugly 7.31 ERA under the lights. The White Sox just saw Porcello on May 18th and they got to him for four earned runs in seven innings in Detroit. Now, facing him three weeks later and getting him in Chicago this time (with the wind blowing out), look for the White Sox to do even more damage here.
The White Sox send Freddy Garcia to the mound tonight and, though he has great career numbers against Detroit, we look for him to struggle against the Tigers here. Garcia has allowed five homers in his five home starts this season. Though he has strong numbers against the Tigers, note that Garcia hasn’t pitched in more than 11 games in a season since the 2006 season. The point is that most of those great stats that Garcia has compiled against Detroit are really “dated” numbers. In Garcia’s last three home starts he’s allowed 24 hits in 15.1 innings. He’s compiled a 4.94 ERA on the season and, when he faced Detroit on May 18th he only had one 1-2-3 inning in the game. He was pitching out of the stretch most of the night and, with the wind blowing out at US Cellular Field tonight, base runners will prove to be a big problem for Garcia. Note that the Tigers are 7-2 to the over as a small road dog (up to +125) this season and the White Sox are 6-1 to the over as a small road fave (up to -125) this season. That’s a combined 13-3 (81%) trend supporting the over in this match-up and note that the Tigers have only stayed under the total once in their last five games. As for the White Sox, they’ve only stayed under the total twice in their last nine games! Play OVER the total in Chicago-AL as a *10* Top Play Wednesday night!
Players MLB *8* Wednesday on OVER in Tampa on 9 June
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 8* (Regular Play) OVER in Tampa Bay vs Toronto @ 7:10 ET: Price vs Marcum – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
This was the lone blemish on my record last night as these two teams failed to get the game over the total and it ended up being a push at nine runs! While last night all the scoring was coming from the Rays, we look for much more of a balance in the scoring tonight. We are getting very strong line value with the total posted on this game. We have been given a very low number to work with because Shawn Marcum and David Price both have very impressive numbers so far this season. A big key to the value here is that these pitchers just recently matched up with one another and the final score was 7-3. Even though some of those runs came late against Marcum, there is still no denying that both lineups enjoyed some success in the match-up. The Blue Jays and Rays combined for 19 hits in the 16.1 innings that they faced the opposing starter in that game on June 2nd. With each team having just seen the starting pitcher they will face again tonight, we feel this is a big edge to the batters. They’ve got some confidence from racking up some hits in the prior match-up and now both pitchers are coming off of extra rest and oftentimes rest can be a case of “too much of a good thing”. Pitchers who are in a rhythm, like Marcum and Price have been, don’t really want to sit out too long between starts. This will be the most time off either pitcher has had between starts this entire season.
The Blue Jays are 8-3 to the over this season when they are on the road and the posted total is an 8 or 8.5 runs. The Rays are 7-2 to the over this season when playing on Wednesdays. That’s a combined 15-5 (75%) ATS trend that applies to tonight’s match-up. Note that the Blue Jays were 5-1 to the over in their last six road games before last night’s push. As for the Rays, they were 6-2 to the over in their last eight games before last night’s push. Tampa Bay has averaged 6 runs per game in their last nine games. They should be able to get their fair share against Marcum tonight. Even though Marcum has enjoyed success against the Rays in his career, this will be his first career start at Tropicana Field and Tampa Bay is swinging some very healthy lumber right now. Marcum is just 1-2 on the road this season and he’s been hit 30 points higher in night games compared to in day games this season. Also, he’s been hit 31 points higher with an ERA that is 1.19 runs higher when he’s indoors compared to outdoors so far this season. Marcum’s counterpart, Price, has enjoyed success against the Blue Jays in his career but, the fact that Toronto just saw him plus got nine hits against him, is a big plus in this quick “rematch” on the schedule. Also, Price is 10-1 in daytime action in his career but he’s just 8-8 in night games with an ERA that is more than run higher! We’re grabbing the big value here with the low number posted on a game where both teams should enjoy success in a quick “second look” at the hurlers they are facing tonight. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as an *8* regular play selection.
Nelly's WEDNESDAY NL TOTAL DOMINATION - June 9 (U PIT/WAS)
Nelly's 1* Pick 'UNDER 9' #951/952 Pittsburgh Pirates (Lincoln) at Washington Nationals (Hernandez) 6:05 PM
A little bit less attention will be on tonight's game in Washington but another young pitcher will make his major league debut. Brad Lincoln was a 1st round pick in the 2006 draft and he has excelled at AAA Indianapolis the last two seasons, including a 12-4 record and this season his ERA is down to 3.16. Lincoln has allowed just 14 walks in over 68 innings of work this season and he should have a great opportunity to make an excellent first start. Pittsburgh's bullpen has marginal numbers overall this season but in the last ten games the unit has a 3.38 ERA and Washington has not been scoring a great deal of runs. Washington has scored just 19 run in the last six games and only five times in the last 24 games have the Nationals topped five runs. For the season the 'under' is 33-24-2 in Washington games including 16-10-2 in home games. The 'under' is also 19-9 in the last 28 games the Nationals have played as favorites. The momentum of last night’s big win has Washington a bit overvalued for tonight's match-up but the 'under' looks like the best play in this game as Pittsburgh's offense continues to struggle. Only once in the last 18 games have the Pirates scored as many as six runs and in the last twelve road games the Pirates have averaged just 2.5 runs per game. In the past ten games the Pirates are batting just .224 and the 'under' is 22-8 in the last 30 Wednesday games that the Pirates have played. Due to the low-scoring potential of the offense this is the highest total in a Pittsburgh game in the past 13 games and even with a rookie starter for the Pirates runs should be tough to come by. The last time John Lannan started against the Pirates he allowed just one run over seven innings. Lannan had a rocky start to the season but he has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last four starts. Lannan only has two wins this season but Washington has had success in his starts and in night games this season his ERA is just 3.77. Pittsburgh is batting just .230 on the road against left-handed pitching and the Nationals have also featured a strong bullpen with a 2.30 ERA in the last ten games. Rookie pitchers often have early success due to the unfamiliarity most batters will have in the match-up and more low numbers should be expected Wednesday night.
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