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The New York Mets have really suffered on the road where their offense generates just four runs a game. Their pitching holds them in games vs weaker teams, but the UNDER has thrived. The Mets are 12-2 in road games facing teams below .400 at home in their last 14 and 19-6-1 overall in that situation to the UNDER. The Birds have fallen short of the total behind Guthrie as they are 16-5 to the UNDER in his last 21 starts. Also, the Birds have played UNDER to the tune of 33-16-3 in their last 51 as a home favorite. In addition, the Mets are 15-2 to the UNDER opening a series while the Birds are 8-1 to the UNDER behind Guthrie opening a series.I'll ride with the UNDER here.
Cajun Sports
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins (MLB) - 8:10 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -127 Minnesota Twins Play Title: Cajuns MLB IL 5* Game of the Month Winner 20-2
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This weekend’s baseball action will consist of Interleague play with the exception of one NL series. Our focus for Friday’s card is on the Braves-Twins series where Atlanta will send right-hander Tim Hudson to the bump to face left-hander Francisco Liriano of the Twins. Hudson is 6-1 on the season with an ERA of 2.44 but his teammates have struggled on the highway posting a record of 15-20 on the year. Atlanta’s bullpen has also found the going tough on the highway blowing five saves in ten chances. This fact could come into play tonight even though Hudson has a very good record this season it has all come against NL opponents and his Interleague record has seen him go 1-13 in fourteen Interleague starts. Atlanta is 1-6 their last seven Interleague road games facing left-handed starters and 0-4 versus the American League Central Division. The Twins on the other hand have been dominating at home going 20-9 this season and 10-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Minnesota is 7-1 when Liriano takes the bump versus National League opponents, 5-1 when he starts Game 1 of a series and 4-1 when he is a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Twins are 20-6 versus NL East teams, 16-5 at home versus National League teams with a winning record, 40-13 versus National League right-handers, 53-18 as a home favorite in this price range, 21-7 in Game 1 of a series and 56-20 their last seventy-six Interleague games overall. Minnesota is 11-2 versus NL starters whose ERA is 3.50 or better and 10-1 versus NL starters who have a WHIP of 1.250 or better on the season. A check of the database reveals two powerful league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest. The first one tells us to Play AGAINST MLB NL underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season and the team is averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game on the season. Playing against these underdogs has produced a record of 63-23 the last five years for 73.3 percent winners and +33.2 Units of profit. The second system tells us to Play AGAINST NL road teams in this price range with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better, with a team on base percentage of .340 or better on the season. When fading these road teams the record is 39-13 the last five seasons for 75 percent winners and +26.5 Units of profit. This system is also 4-1 during the 2010 campaign. Our TPR Index favors the Twins by 2.49 runs over the Braves and our Math Model projects a Twins victory by 2.02 runs. With significant fundamental, technical and situational support for Minnesota we will lay the short price as they get an easy win over the Atlanta Braves on Friday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Minnesota Twins 4 Atlanta Braves 2
ONE AND ONLY INTERLEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR
2000* Washington Nationals/Atilano - Cleveland Indians/Westbrook.
Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or NO action on the release.
As I type this analysis, the Nats are a small road dog.
Here we go boys, breaking out the big guns tonight and backing the Nationals as they look for their 4th win in a row.
I don't know if you watched Strasburg make his ML debut the other night, but his start has definitely energized this Washington team. The Nats are a pretty solid team, and the middle of the lineup with Dunn, Zimmerman, and Willingham is certainly capable of putting some runs up on the board in Cleveland tonight.
Indians starter Jake Westbrook has had some nice turns over his last few starts, but his last start was rather ugly, as he allowed 6 runs in just 5 innings of work against the White Sox. For the season, Westbrook is 0-1 at home in 4 starts, and has an ERA that stands at 5.56. Believe me, Washington will hit this guy.
Luis Atilano has been a find for the Nats, and catcher Pudge Rodriguez surely knows this ball park from his AL days, so expect Pudge to guide Atilano through the foreign terrain. Atilano has gone a perfect 4-0 on the road this year, and has a road ERA of just 3.18.
Cleveland showed some fire in their series with Boston (especially last night!), but the fact remains, this Indians team has won just 10 times against 16 losses at home for the year.
As I said, Washington has a pep in their step since Strasburg joined the team, and their winning streak hits 4 in a row with the win tonight.
The Red Sox pitching faltered the last two nights as they allowed the lowly Indians to put up 19 runs. They’re back home tonight and expect a much better pitching performance from their starter Lackey. The Red Sox righty is starting to get settle in Boston. In his last three starters he has a 3.72 ERA and 2-1 team start record. He should be able to shut down this Philly team who’s been struggling at the plate hitting only .243 and scoring 3.7 runs in their last seven games. Philadelphia sends out Moyer and the Red Sox are licking their chops. Boston has murdered lefties this season scoring 6.1 runs in their 21 games against southpaws. That scoring output should continue tonight against Moyer who has a lofty 4.59 ERA on the road this season. Philly was shutout last night and they don’t respond very well with a 1-9 record after being held scoreless. The Phillies bull pen hasn’t performed very well of late and the Red Sox are an unbelievable 15-1 over the past three years against teams with pen’s that have a 6.00 or more ERA in their past 10 games. Play on Boston.
Texas -115
The Red Hot Rangers visit Milwaukee tonight having won three straight. The Texas bats have been sizzling pounding out 7.6 runs per game and hitting .327 over the last seven games. They shouldn’t have any trouble staying hot against the Brewers start Narveson who can’t get anyone out of late. The Brewer lefty is 0-3 in his last three outings with a lofty 7.47 ERA. Texas has posted +$925 in profits this season in night games versus lefties. Harden gets the start for Texas and he should have no problem tonight against the Brewers who are an awful $-845 this season at home versus righties. The Brewers are $125 dogs tonight and they’ve been a money losing 3-11 this season when the number is between $-125 and $+125. Rangers pound the Brewers! Play on Texas.
Minnesota -140
Tough spot for the Braves tonight as they come into Minnesota after visiting LA and Arizona. The Braves have been playing very good baseball but they’ve struggled against lefties on the road, and tonight they face a very good southpaw in Liriano. He’s been very tough here in Minnesota with a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in four starts. In those outings he’s fanned 24 batters and on the season has whiffed 76 in only 72 2/3 innings. Hudson gets the start for Atlanta and he comes in with a 2.44 ERA, but that’s a good sign for the Twins. Minnesota is 11-2 in Interleague play when opposing a pitcher with a 3.50 or better ERA. The Twins have been a money machine this season when favored by $-150 or less posting a 21-5 record. The Twins beat the Braves in this series opener. Play on Minnesota.
Two pretty even teams on paper except the Reds seem to know how to win and KC can not buy a win, especially in late innings. Cincinnati is a good team at home and Bronson Arroyo is a better pitcher in this duel. Let's take the Reds.
CRAIG TRAPP
Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers (MLB) - 8:10 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 9.5/100 Over Play Title:
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Over 9.5 Tex/Mil: Not sure if this game will be over by midnight as both of these teams are super hot from the plate. Oh and by the way both of these pitchers have a 5 plus ERA over their last month of starts. TEX is coming off a week that has seen them average 7 runs per game. Incuding 12 in the closeout game of SEA yesterday. MIL won the series against the Cubs this week but had to do it with their bats as the pitching has been horrible. TEX will get at least 7 runs and sure the hot home hitting Brewers will get theirs as Harden is not very good
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