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On Friday the free MLB Play is on the San Francisco Giants. Game 915 at 7:05 eastern. The Giants have some solid edges here tonight. They have cashed 6 of 8 this season when playing with a day off and have won 7 of 10 On Fridays. Tonight they take on Toronto team that is terrible vs left handed pitching. They are 1-5 at home vs leftys and are averaging 2.7 runs per game on .198 hitting so far this season.In the pitching matchup the Giants have B. Zito who looks to have regained his form from years past. Zito has a solid 3.10 era and the Giants have cashed 9 of his 13 team starts. In his career vs Toronto he is 8-2. Tonight he opposes bright young righty B.Morrow who can bring it with a fastball that approaches triple digits. Morrow has problems at times with location and will not reach his peak until he resolves his control issues. He has a 5.41 era this season. Look for the Giants to get game 1 tonight. For the free play tonight we have a nice dog with the San Francisco Giants. GC
Friday, June 17, 2010 7:35 p.m. est.
Kansas City Royals (29-38) at Atlanta Braves (39-28)
(R) Brian Bannister (6-4) vs. (R) Derek Lowe (8-5)
The Braves have won 11 of their last 12 home games and are 12-3 in Lowe's last 15 starts as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Royals are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a road underdog and just 2-8 in Bannister's last 10 road starts.
The Braves are a tough team to beat at home. Go with Atlanta tonight at home with right-hander Derek Lowe on the hill. The Braves are 12-4 in Lowe's last 16 starts at Turner Field and 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games.
Kansas City's right-hander Brian Bannister (6-4, 5.40) is 2-1 with an 8.04 ERA in his last three starts, 1-3 with an 8.22. ERA in six road starts this season. Bannister will make his first career start against the Braves. The Royals are 5-1 in Bannister’s last 6 starts.
Atlanta's right-hander Derek Lowe (8-5, 4.81 ERA) is 1-1 with a 4.66 ERA in his last three starts. Lowe is 2-5 with a 4.90 ERA In 21 outings, including eight starts against the Royals. The Braves have won four of Lowe's last 5 starts.
double-dime bet 916 TOR (-135) Bodog vs 915 SFG
Analysis:
Listed Pitchers (Morrow vs Zito)
MLB (2*) Double Star Play
I REALLY see GREAT VALUE with the BLUE JAYS at HOME tonight--as they not only have their HOTTEST starter going tonight--they are RED HOT at HOME. Toronto is (13-5) their last 18 HOME games coming into tonight--and they had yesterday off--as they had a rough (3-6) roadie. Tonight--being BACK HOME behind RED HOT Brandon Morrow--sounds like a great play to me. It MAY be a coincedence, but Morrow has been lights out his L/3 starts--ALL started by backup catcher Jose Molina--and I expect him to get the start again tonight. Let's take a look at Morrow's L/3 starts--and Giants starter Barry Zito, who has been on the decline recently..he did picked up his 1st win in 5 decisions, his last start vs his old club the A's. Zito has NOT had good success AT Rogers Centre, over his career--1-2, with a 5.48 ERA.
-Morrow L/3 starts: 1-1, 20 IP, 3 ER, 15 K's, 12 hits, ONLY 6 BB, 0.90 WHIP-
The Blue Jays also hold a slight edge in the bullpens tonight.
-Giants ROAD Team bullpen numbers: 5.31 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and a .288 BAA.-
-Blue Jays HOME Team bullpen numbers: 4.41 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a .255 BAA.-
Bottomline here, I see great value with the JAYS tonight at HOME, behind RED HOT Morrow--who's biggiet problem over his short career--has been his control/walks--and as we can see, he CLEARLY has that handled right now, and is at an all-time high in CONFIDENCE. I expect another strong outing out of him tonight--and I expect the JAYS to continue their great play AT HOME. (2*) Double Star Top Play on the BLUE JAYS tonight.
double-dime bet 921 KAN / 922 ATL Over 9 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
Over it goes as the Braves/Royals get our call as a 2* J Hawk Winner as the RED HOT and first place Bravos have a 21-7 home record, and have won 11 /12 with a smoking .297 BA, The Braves and Derek Lowe will get banged around by a league leading .280 KC Royals team who has owned righties. The Royals have been hot lately , smashi~ng the ball at a .305 BA also the last 10 days. We will call for the Bravos to get to the Royal's Brian Bannister who is 6-4 over all and a 5.40 ERA who was absolutely toasted by the Reds last game.
JR'S O'S 2* " J HAWK" GOES THE OVER 9 ROYALS/BRAVOS
I'm on a huge baseball roll going 28-10-1 on my past 39 complementary selections. I've been even better lately on my paid selections. I cashed on the underdog Boston Celtics last night and have won my past eight paid baseball plays, including nailing the Astros two nights ago as a 40-dimer. My paid baseball play for Friday is even stronger than that one.
I like the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter laying 1 1/2 on the run line today against weak-hitting Oakland and overmatched starter Vin Mazzaro as my Friday free play.
Carpenter rarely loses at Busch Stadium with nearly a 79 percent win rate there in his last 52 starts (41-11).
After a good May, the A's are 5-11 this month. They are 12-22 on the road. If you discount a nine-run game against the Cubs, the A's are averaging 2.4 runs in their last five games. They have hit the third fewest homers in the majors.
Carpenter is having another strong year going 7-1 with a 2.66 ERA. His ERA at home this season is 2.16. St. Louis is 24-5 during Carpenter's past 29 home starts against a team with a losing record.
Mazzaro is filling in for injured Brett Anderson. He has a 4.81 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. The A's should be no match for the Cardinals, who are now out of first place in the NL Central and won't lack for motivation.
3? CARDINALS RUN LINE (LIST BOTH PITCHERS)
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