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2 Unit Play. #922 Take Atlanta -1 ½ +115 over Kansas City (7:35 p.m., Friday June. 18)
6 Unit Play. #928 Take San Diego -155 over Baltimore (7:05 p.m., Friday June. 18)
(Game of the Month) Baltimore is just horrible on the road only winning 7 games on the road and losing 27. San Diego is coming into this game losing 3 out of 4 games but with the Orioles in town this trend should be gone. Baltimore is an astonishing 11-41 in their last 52 road games. San Diego is 5-1 in their last 6 games against a left-handed starter and the Padres are also 5-2 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
WNBA PLAYS
2 Unit Play. #605 Take Over 178 San Antonio at Phoenix (Friday 6/18 10:05 PM)
Phoenix hit the century mark their last game so tonight in Phoenix we should see the scoreboard light up. The last 4 games between these two teams all four of them have gone over the total.
3 Unit Play. #607 Take Connecticut -2 over LA Sparks (Friday 6/18 10:35 PM)
No Parker tonight or for the rest of the WNBA season so tonight will be the first of many losses for the LA Sparks. Connecticut is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games and tonight the Sun will get their first road W.
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Last edited by 50cent; 06-18-2010 at 02:10 PM.
4-Unit Play. Take #604. Take Minnesota Lynx -7 over Tulsa Shock (Friday @ 8:00pm est)
Yes, I know it sounds a bit loopy to take the Lynx here today, but they have a solid chance of getting this spread done. In fact, I nearly made them into a five star before pulling the trigger on yesterday's Under in the Fever game for the five star which worked out for us (now 5-0 in wnba 5* gotws and 9-0 when combined with baseball for the year). It seems kind of silly to lay seven points with a team that is 2-9 but the situation pans out well for Minnesota. For starters, the Lynx have defeated this team once this year on the road by six points but have lost by 12 and 13 points recently to Tulsa. Minnesota has a great deal of revenge coming into this game as they look to avoid three straight losses to this team. Note, that Minnesota has been playing better basketball of late losing to the Sparks by just four points on the road, losing to Phoenix by 11 points (the same team that Tulsa lost by 32 points in their last game) and this is the same Minnesota team that beat Phoenix by ten points to get one of their rare two wins on the year. I look for Minnesota to take out some frustration out on Tulsa today as they get revenge, they do return home to a relatively larger crowd than usual on a Friday night and with their better play of late, they are in a decent spot here for a double-digit win and Vegas understands that and this is why they have set a 2-9 team as a seven point favorite. Look for Seimone Augustus, Lindsay Whalen, and Stanford alum Candace Wiggins to have a strong ballgame here. The Shock are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Minnesota.
4-Unit Play. Take #922. Take Under 9 Kansas City vs. Atlanta Braves (Friday @ 7:35pm est)
Brian Bannieter comes off one of his worst starts of the year. In fact, it was his worst. He gave up nine runs in 3 innings of work on 11 hits. Prior to that Brian had put together four of five quality starts and he was pitching relatively well. I look for Brian to have a much better effort this evening as he looks to bounce-back against a quality team such as the Braves. Brian is actually a decent pitcher and as he comes off a horrible effort, I can't see him put together back to back terrible starts. Derek Lowe comes off a quality start over the Twins as he went more than seven innings and gave up just two runs in the process. He has pitched well at home of late as he has given up one run in back to back efforts against the likes of the Phillies and Pirates. He also faced the Mets at home and gave up three runs in seven innings as well. Long story short, Derek has come through for the Braves at home as he is pitching in a first place ballclub and at the same time, Bannister is facing the Braves as he comes off a rough start. And, with 80% being on the Braves, I look for the dog pitcher to have a quality effort today as well as this game likely goes under the posted total. The Under is 6-2-2 in Bannister's last 10 road starts when the total is set at this range and the Under is 5-0 for Lowe when the total is set at this range
Players MLB *10* Top Play OVER in Boston Friday 18 June
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in Boston vs LA Dodgers @ 7:10 ET: Doubront vs Monasterios – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Our two totals plays yesterday were overs involving both of these teams. The Red Sox hosted the Diamondbacks and their game finished with 13 runs and flew over the total by the sixth inning. The Dodgers visited Cincinnati early yesterday and, while their total came up short it certainly should not have fallen short. The game was 7-1 through five innings but the scoring died at that point and the game ended 7-1. This is helping to give us some line value here because the fact that the Dodgers scored just one run yesterday is deceiving. The Dodgers, despite hitting into three double plays yesterday, left ten men on base in the game and certainly had plenty of scoring opportunities. We look for an opportunity for the Dodgers to cash in plenty of opportunities against a rookie hurler today. Los Angeles will be facing Red Sox starter Felix Doubront and he’s making his major league debut. As for Boston’s powerful lineup, they will be facing Dodgers starter Carlos Monasterios and he’s only made five starts at the MLB level. He’s coming off of a very poor effort in his most recent start and he was going to be dropped from the rotation were it not for the injury to Chad Billingsley. Now, even though Vicente Padilla is back with the team, the Dodgers are still having to stick with Monasterios a little longer because of Billingsley’s injury.
Monasterios allowed four earned runs on seven hits in just 2.2 innings of work in his most recent start. He’s also walked six batters in his last 8.2 innings and he’s only recorded two strikeouts in his last two starts combined. He doesn’t pitch deep into games and his confidence has been shaken by the rough outing Monasterios just had against the Angels. Facing the Red Sox at Fenway Park on a warm night in Boston won’t make things any easier for the right-hander. The only good news for Monasterios tonight is that he should be the recipient of plenty of run support. The Red Sox are starting a southpaw, Doubront, who makes his MLB debut after enjoying great success in the minors so far this season. Success in the minors doesn’t easily translate to success in the majors and Doubront is only 42-30 with a 3.55 ERA overall in 109 minor league starts. He’s making this start because of the injury to Daisuke Matsuzaka and, while we’re not saying that it’s undeserved, we are simply saying that this rookie is likely to struggle against a Dodgers lineup that has been hitting the ball very well of late. On the season, the Dodgers rank 8th out of all 30 MLB teams for batting average on the road. Also, the Red Sox are hitting a very impressive .289 at home this season with a stellar .482 slugging percentage. Boston’s bullpen ERA, however, ranks 20th in the majors and we look for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. Just like last night’s game at Fenway and plus tonight’s game is boosted by very favorable weather conditions for a big night from the hitters! Play OVER the total in Boston as a *10* Top Play selection.
ASA MLB PICK - Friday, June 18 - Over the Total, Cincinnati vs. Seattle
ASA MLB PICK - 3* Over 6.5 runs, Cincinnati (Cueto) vs. Seattle (Lee), Friday at 9:05 PM CST
Safeco Field has been a very low scoring ballpark this season and Cliff Lee can be an elite pitcher but this total is about as low as a MLB game is ever listed at. Lee has actually been a far better pitcher on the road this season as his home ERA is a pedestrian 3.68 this season. Over his last four starts Lee has allowed three or more runs four times and although he owns an amazing strikeout-to-walk ratio he has been hittable, allowing seven or more hits in five of his last eight outings. Lee also faces the building trade rumors which can be a distraction for any player. Seattle’s bullpen has also struggled including an ERA of 7.00 over the last ten games.
While the Reds remain in strong contention in the NL Central the team has a glaring weakness in the bullpen. For the year Cincinnati owns a 4.88 bullpen ERA and the numbers are even worse in the last ten games. Opponents are incredibly batting .287 against Reds relievers as the Cincinnati bullpen has blown eight saves and taken 14 losses. Starter Johnny Cueto owns a strong 6-1 record but his road ERA is 4.89 and the ‘over’ is 5-1 in those starts. For the year the ‘over’ is 11-2 in Cueto starts as his team typically gives him great support. Over the last three outings for Cueto he has a 9.00 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP so the Reds will likely need to score runs to help Cueto win another game.
The ‘over’ is actually 6-3-1 in the last ten Seattle home games and the last three-game series that these teams played featured 32 runs scored. The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the last eight Cincinnati games and 9-3 in the last twelve games that the Reds have been dogged. Facing a left-hander should be a favorable situation for the Reds as they have superior numbers against southpaws in basically every split. In road games the Reds are batting .279 against left-handers and in the last ten games the Reds are batting .306 in those match-ups. Despite going 4-6 in the last ten games the Reds are hitting .285 as a team and scoring nearly five runs per game.
While Seattle’s offense is struggling, the Mariners have allowed more runs than this total by themselves in five of their last ten games. Seattle is batting ten points higher in home games despite the low-scoring numbers at Safeco and in this match-up with two struggling bullpens there is likely to be some late inning drama even if both starters deliver good outings. Cincinnati has been one of the top ‘over’ teams in baseball this season and this total should be surpassed in tonight’s match-up.
Nelly's MLB FRIDAY TOTAL DOMINATION - June 18 (Under KC/ATL)
Nelly's 1* Pick 'UNDER 9' #921 Kansas City Royals (Bannister) at Atlanta Braves (Lowe) 7:35 PM ET
Atlanta may be one of the hottest teams in baseball but the run production has still been inconsistent. In five of the last eight games the Braves have failed to top four runs scored and Atlanta is batting just .263 for the season. Kansas City starter Brian Bannister was hit hard in his last start but that ended a strong of six straight outings while allowing four or fewer runs. The Royals actually were on a 5-0 run in Bannister starts and he has not pitched as poorly on the road as the numbers indicate as his last outing greatly inflated the figures. The Braves should be in good hands on the mound tonight as Derek Lowe has delivered great results in the last few weeks. Lowe has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last seven outings, allowing just one home run in those seven starts. Lowe has been much sharper in Atlanta with a 3.24 ERA and the 'under' is 4-2 in his last six starts. The 'under' is also 7-2 in the last nine interleague games that the Braves have played. Turner Field has been stingy this year with fewer than nine runs scored per game on average and teams collectively hitting only .253. The Royals have hit for a strong average this season but have failed to convert many scoring opportunities. Look for more of the same and a low scoring affair in this interleague match.
dime bet 907 NYM / 908 NYY Over 9.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
Takahashi & Vazquez MUST START
The oddsmakers know that 9 is a key number when betting MLB totals. They put this number out at 9.5 knowing bettors will be inclined to go UNDER because a 5-4 final would be a win instead of a push. I don't play too many totals, but I feel this number is a bit low.
Hisanori Takahashi owns a 1.64 WHIP on the road this season. He's walking a batter about every other inning on the road. This guy just flat out lets A LOT of men on base, which spells trouble against a Yankees lineup that is batting .301 and scoring 8 runs per game at home this season against lefties. And given that the Bombers have been held to a total of 4 runs over their last two home games, I expect those bats to be pounding tonight. When Takahashi leaves the game, he'll be turning things over to a Mets bullpen tha‚t owns a 5.22 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road, allowing opponents to hit .280 against them.
Javier Vazquez has made three straight Quality Starts, going 7 innings in each. But two of those starts were against Houston and Baltimore. I expect Vazquez to find the going a bit tougher tonight against a Mets lineup that is batting .299 and scoring 5.9 runs per game against righties in their last 10 outings. When Vazquez leaves the game, he'll be turning it over to a Yankees pen that owns a 5.29 ERA at Yankee Stadium this season.
Bottom line: The Yankees lineup has absolutely crushed lefty pitching at home, the Mets are hot and hitting very well, and both bullpens should contribute to the scoring. Looks like a winning formula to me. Take the OVER 9.5 at Yankee Stadium tonight.
Stan Sharp | MLB Money Line Fri, 06/18/10 - 7:05 PM
double-dime bet 912 PIT (-122) Bodog vs 911 CLE
Analysis: Stan is Betting PITTSBURGH today. Stan notes that even though the Pirates are in a losing streak this is a great spot for them to get the cash tonight. Pittsburgh catches Cleveland following them getting swept at home by the Mets. Paul Maholm the Pittsburgh starter has pitched 3 straight good games and should handle the Indians. TAKE PITTSBURGH as STAN'S FRIDAY BEST BET.
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