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Re: 6-24-10
Dwayne Bryant | MLB Money Line Thu, 06/24/10 - 8:40 PM
dime bet 921 BOS (-105) BetUS vs 922 COL
Analysis:
Matsuzaka & Hammel MUST START
Boston is just 17-15 on the road, while Colorado is 23-13 at home. Colorado won the first two games of this series and five in a row against Boston during the regular season. Daisuke Matsuzaka is coming off the DL, while Jason Hammel is currently riding a career-best streak of 25 1/3 scoreless innings. Yet the Rockies opened as just a -115 home favorite? Hmm. Looks like the oddsmakers expect some regression to the mean for Hammel tonight and for Boston to avoid the sweep. I happen to agree.
This Boston lineup, which is hitting .321 and scoring 6.7 runs per game against righties over their last 10 contests, will provide Hammel with a MUCH tougher challenge than he's faced recently. Matsuzaka was 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in his last four starts prior to the forearm injury that landed him on the DL. If you look past the home/road ERAs for these two, they have produced very similarly. Dice K owns a 1.30 WHIP & .320 OOBP (Opponents On-Base Percentage) on the road, and Hammel owns a 1.24 WHIP & .320 OOBP at home.
A regression to the mean is in order for Mr. Hammel tonight against a tough Boston lineup that his hit him well in the past (Ortiz, Scutaro, Pedroia & Varitek are a combined 9-for-17 against him). Take Boston/Matsuzaka over Colorado/Hammel.
Dwayne Bryant | MLB Money Line Thu, 06/24/10 - 8:40 PM
dime bet 921 BOS (-105) BetUS vs 922 COL
Analysis:
Matsuzaka & Hammel MUST START
Boston is just 17-15 on the road, while Colorado is 23-13 at home. Colorado won the first two games of this series and five in a row against Boston during the regular season. Daisuke Matsuzaka is coming off the DL, while Jason Hammel is currently riding a career-best streak of 25 1/3 scoreless innings. Yet the Rockies opened as just a -115 home favorite? Hmm. Looks like the oddsmakers expect some regression to the mean for Hammel tonight and for Boston to avoid the sweep. I happen to agree.
This Boston lineup, which is hitting .321 and scoring 6.7 runs per game against righties over their last 10 contests, will provide Hammel with a MUCH tougher challenge than he's faced recently. Matsuzaka was 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in his last four starts prior to the forearm injury that landed him on the DL. If you look past the home/road ERAs for these two, they have produced very similarly. Dice K owns a 1.30 WHIP & .320 OOBP (Opponents On-Base Percentage) on the road, and Hammel owns a 1.24 WHIP & .320 OOBP at home.
A regression to the mean is in order for Mr. Hammel tonight against a tough Boston lineup that his hit him well in the past (Ortiz, Scutaro, Pedroia & Varitek are a combined 9-for-17 against him). Take Boston/Matsuzaka over Colorado/Hammel.
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