7-3-10

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Billy Coleman's

5 star: OVER Houston/San Diego

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Master Sports (North Coast line)

5 star: OVER Dodgers/Arizona

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GamblersWorld
Tip of the Day - July 3, 2010


Date: 7.3.10 at 7:05PM
Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Current Line: Philadelphia (-125)

Over/Under: 8.5

Play On: OVER 8.5

Inside the Board Room:
Kyle Kendrick will be the starting pitcher for the Phillies on this day. Righthander Kendrick is 4-3 this season with a 5.00 ERA. Kendrick's opponent in this one will be Paul Maholm. The Pirates lefthander has a 3.98 ERA to go along with a 5-6 record this season. Ross Ohlendorf tossed seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts on Friday, as the Pirates blanked the Phillies 2-0. The Pirates won the game as +120 underdogs, while the teams played UNDER that game's posted over/under (8.5) set by sportsbooks. Andy LaRoche drove in one run for the Pirates, while Octavio Dotel closed out the ninth for his 18th save. Jamie Moyer gave up five hits and one earned run over six innings in the Phillies loss.
Take the OVER tonight

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MLB ML - Saturday, Jul 3 2010 9:40PM
ML 965 LOS (-154) Sportbet vs 966 ARI single-dime bet

Analysis: The Los Angeles Dodgers -154 is the 1 Unit Buried Treasure for Saturday, July 3rd!
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MLB ML - Saturday, Jul 3 2010 8:35PM
ML 963 HOU (+140) Bodog vs 964 SDP double-dime bet

Analysis: The Houston Astros +140 is the DOUBLE STAR SUMMER SIZZLER for Saturday, July 3rd!

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Re: 7-3-10

Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in LA Angels vs Kansas City @ 9:05 ET: Santana vs Chen – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!


Waiting on releasing our Top Play for Saturday has paid off as this line has moved down ever since opening up at a 9.5 yesterday. Now we can take the over 9 runs and lay a very fair price and there is nothing holding us back from giving this one our highest rating. Before getting into the ‘meat and potatoes’ of this write-up we first will take a look at some interesting trends that support this play. First off, the Royals are 8-2 to the over as a road dog of +150 to +175 this season. Secondly, even though the Angels first two games this month have stayed under the total, note that they went 35-15 to the over the prior two Julys combined. With warmer weather at this time of year we do see tendency for totals to jump and we expect to see more of the same this season as we go through the months of July and August. Also, the Angels wrapped up June by seeing just 3 of their last 11 games stay under the total. As for the Royals, yesterday’s game was the 12th straight time that they’ve had at least 9 hits in their game. They’ve struggled to get some timely hits but the fact that they’re averaging nearly 11 hits per game over their last 12 games shows just how well they’ve been seeing the ball.

Look for the Royals to enjoy success against Ervin Santana of the Angels. Even though he has compiled some impressive full season numbers, note that Santana has allowed 16 earned runs in his last 4 starts. During this stretch Santana has gone just 2-2 and he’s allowed 33 hits in 23.2 innings of work. Also, though he’s 4-3 in his 8 career starts against the Royals, note that he’s compiled a 4.50 ERA against Kansas City and they’ve hit him at a .295 clip. Santana has a 4.82 ERA at home this season and he’s allowed six homers in his last four home starts. The good news for the Angels sticks is that their lineup should come to life against the struggling Bruce Chen. The Royals left-hander threw over 100 pitches just to get through five innings in his most recent start. Chen has walked 11 batters in his last 16.2 innings of work. He’s also given up 3 homers in his last 2 road starts. Chen is just 2-5 on the road the last two seasons and he’s struggled much more on the road (5.68 ERA) than at home over his last two seasons. He’s been hit at a .292 clip in his four career appearances against the Angels. Los Angeles has bounced back and averaged nearly 7 runs per game when they are coming off of a game where they were held to 1 run or shutout. The last 7 times this has happened the following game has totaled 47 runs in these 7 occurrences. In other words, look for the Angels offense to bounce back tonight and, with one of the weaker bullpens in baseball supporting Santana, don’t be surprised if the Royals lineup is able to keep them in this game all the way! In other words, it should turn into a back and forth slugfest. Play OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game as a *10* Top Play selection

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Re: 7-3-10

ASA's


PLAY ON OVer the Total, LA Dodgers (Kershaw) vs. Arizona (Lopez), Saturday at 9:40 PM EST

Arizona has been one of the strongest ‘over’ teams in baseball this season, but not lately, as the ‘under’ has hit in five of the past six games entering the weekend. In the past 15 games the Diamondbacks have topped five runs just twice, but all but three of those games were on the road. In those three home games Arizona scored 18 runs and the ‘over’ is 13-5 in the last 18 games in Arizona. For the season Chase Field has the highest ballpark OPS in baseball with 103 home runs hit and a .276 overall batting average. The ‘over’ is 23-13 in those games in Arizona.

The Dodgers have also been a strong 'over' the team for the season in thanks to an offense that is batting .268 for the season. The opportunities for runs should be common for the Dodgers on Saturday with Rodrigo Lopez on the mound as the veteran has not pitched well at home. For the season his home ERA is 5.09 accompanied by a 1.47 WHIP. Lopez has allowed three of more runs in seven of his last eight starts and home runs have been a problem with 15 already allowed this season.

Arizona also features the absolute worst bullpen in baseball, holding a 6.98 ERA for the season. Arizona has blown 14 save opportunities and picked up 18 losses among relievers as opponents collectively own a .305 batting average. Typically the Dodgers can be found among the league leaders for bullpen numbers but that has not been the case this season with much higher numbers than the last few seasons. In the last ten games the Dodgers have a 4.24 bullpen ERA and the team has lost several games in the late innings.

Clayton Kershaw has good numbers for the season but he rarely goes deep into games. He has also pitched far worse in night games as he ERA climbs to 4.22. In road games Kershaw has a WHIP of 1.36 and he has been fortunate to escape without significant run damage in several outings. Arizona also gave Kershaw trouble earlier this season as he barely lasted five innings. Four of the last eight meetings between these teams have gone to extra-innings and the Dodgers scored 26 runs in the last three-game set in Arizona. With Kershaw on the mound this total has to be kept in check but the ‘over’ in Arizona continues to make sense.



PLAY ON Over the Total, Oakland (Braden) vs. Cleveland (Westbrook), Friday at 7:05 PM EST

The Indians do not appear to be a strong hitting team against left-handed pitching but the ‘over’ has hit in seven of the last nine home games that Cleveland has faced a left-handed starter. In the first series between these teams there were 28 runs scored with the ‘over’ hitting twice and those games came in Oakland where runs are much tougher to come by. Even with the Indians hitting just .248 as a team, 9.1 runs per game are being scored at Progressive Field and it ranks as an above average hitting park according to ballpark OPS.

Jake Westbrook is coming off an excellent start but he faced a cold Blue Jays offense and few outings have been that successful in Westbrook’s comeback season after missing all of 2009 and most of 2008 due to injury. Westbrook’s home ERA is 4.60 with a 1.49 WHIP and the A’s hit him hard earlier this season. Oakland got eight hits and four runs off Westbrook in an eventual 10-0 win as Westbrook lasted just five innings. In four of his last six home starts Westbrook has allowed at least four runs and the ‘over’ is 7-4 in his last eleven starts overall.

Dallas Braden was scratched from his last start with elbow stiffness but he is expected to give it a go Saturday. Braden has not picked up a win since his perfect game in early May and the results have been ugly of late. Over his last five starts Braden has allowed 43 hits in only 30 innings of work, giving foes a .323 batting average in that span. On the road Braden’s ERA is 5.03 this season and he has oddly had far worse results in night games. Braden has not struck out more than five batters in a game in any of his last eight outings and he will face a Cleveland lineup that is starting to put together some positive momentum.

The Indians swept a four-game home set with Toronto to start the week and after fully committing to several young players in the lineup the promise is finally starting to give some real results. The A’s have also been a hot hitting team with a .280 team average in the last ten games and scoring nearly five runs per game. The biggest reason to expect runs in this game will be in the late innings however as both bullpens have really struggled. The Indians have the highest bullpen ERA in the AL at 4.94 and the A’s are surprisingly not far behind with a 4.24 ERA. Oakland’s pen has really struggled on the road with a 5.43 ERA and both teams should get opportunities to cross the plate tonight.

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Scott Delaney

15 Baltimore

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The Duke's Sports

Philadelphia Under (8') for 2 Units

The Phillies are decimated with injuries and should have more problems generating run production today; after all, Maholm controls a stellar 0.78 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them. On the other hand, the Pirates have produced a measly 12 combined runs over their last 7 games; fortunately, the Pirates starting pitching has been solid over the last few weeks (2.81 ERA). And Kyle Kendrick, who can't be trusted on the road, does sport a 2.45 ERA in 3 career starts vs Pittsburgh.

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Re: 7-3-10

Vegas Sports Informer's


5 Unit Play. #978 Take Texas -140 over Chicago (8:05 p.m., Saturday July. 3)

(Game of the Week) Revenge Factor tonight in Arlington! The Rangers are off a rare home loss last night against the South Siders of Chicago. Texas is 21-7 in their last 28 home games and tonight we feel the Rangers are a great bounce back spot tonight at home. Tommy Hunter is on the mound tonight for the Rangers and in his first 5 starts he is a PERFECT 4-0 with an ERA of 2.15. Tonight we see Hunter go 5-0! Texas is also a PERFECT 4-0 when a left-handed starting pitcher takes the mound.




4 Unit Play. #658 Take Phoenix -3 ½ over New York (Saturday 7/3 10:05 PM)

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Penndel Sports Picks

LA ANGELS -177
ANGELS -1.5 (117)
BOSTON -290
ST LOUIS -210
PHILADELPHIA (K.Kendrick) at PITTSBURGH (P.Maholm) Over 8.5

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MJP Sports

TORONTO 162
CINCINNATI -115
NY METS 170
METS OVER 7
PITTSBURGH 108
HOUSTON 156

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George Pappas Jr

Minnesota Twins
Oakland A's

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ALL COMPS !!!!!!!


John Martin
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Red Sox -1.5 (-145)


Pure Lock
Los Angeles Angels -175



Mikey Sports
Texas Rangers -138



R&R Totals
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Total 7½ un-120


Platinum Plays Win MLB Texas Rangers -1.5

CTSportsPicks MLB Texas Rangers (-135)



Frank SawyerGAME: (966) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS vs (965) LOS ANGELES DODGERS
SPORT: MLB
PICKS: (965) LOS ANGELES DODGERS
REASON FOR PICK: Take the Dodgers over the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Los Angeles puts their star lefty, Clayton Kershaw, on the hill with his 7-4 record that accompanies his 3.19 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Kershaw has been particularly tough on the road this season as evidenced by his 2.95 ERA. He squares off against Rodrigo Lopez who is 4-6 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.37 WHIP for the year. However, Lopez does not enjoy much of home-field advantage as he has a 5.09 ERA and a 1.47 while batters are hitting .300 against him at home this season.

A deeper sabermetric statistic helps to illustrate the vast difference between these two starting pitchers this season. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Kershaw has a sparkling low ISO of .095 while Shields has a high .177 ISO. This metric exposes the fact that hitters are nailing Lopez for many more extra-base hits than they are against Kershaw. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future. Take the money line with the Dodgers while listing both pitchers. Best of luck -- Frank.



EZ's Free Pick For Today

(976) Boston Red Sox -$280

6:10pm Central Time

Boston's starting pitcher Jon Lester owns the Orioles. In fourteen career starts against Baltimore, Lester is a perfect 11-0 with an ERA of just 2.06. In two starts against the Orioles this season, Lester is 1-0 with an ERA of ZERO after not allowing a run in twelve innings of work. Baltimore starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie has not had any success at all against the Red Sox. In his thirteen career starts against Boston, Guthrie is only 1-6 with an ERA of 4.52. Guthrie is not pitching very well right now as he has allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last six starts and had lost five consecutive outings before a no decision against the Nationals in his last start. I don't expect his fortunes to change in this game at Fenway. The Red Sox are 42-11 in Lester's last fifty three home starts and the Orioles are only 4-22 in Guthrie's last twenty six starts against the American League East. Play on Boston.





Robbie Gainous

MLB | Jul 03
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Philadelphia Phillies
-115 at 5dimes > 4h.
Pittsburgh starter Ross Ohlendorf became the third Pirates pitcher in as many days to win for the first time this season, limiting the Phillies to five hits over seven innings during a 2 to 0 victory Friday night. Phillies starter Jamie Moyer was solid but two infield singles by Pittsburgh and the pitcher's throwing error led to Philadelphia's fourth loss in five games. We look for the Phillies to bounce back from their two losses and get back on track tonight versus the Pirates. Philadelphia is 23-9 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons and 38-23 in road games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons. Phillies starter for tonight’s game Kendrick is 18-3 versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season since 1997. Our TPR Index projects a Phillies victory by 2.83 runs over the Pirates so lay the short price as the Phillies stop the bleeding and get back in the win column on Saturday night.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Philadelphia Phillies 6 Pittsburgh Pirates 3




George Castillo

MLB | Jul 03
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers Total
9½ ov+106 at 5dimes > 5h.
73 Runs have been scored in just 7 games between these two teams It’ll be safe to say that the bats always come alive for these matchups. The Rangers are favorites today thanks in large part to their smoking hot offense and pitcher Tommy Hanson who has not lost a single decision this season.

I’ll be counting on the hot bats of texas to knock in an ample amount of runs, shouldn’t be too hard, John Danks was tagged for 6 runs in 5 innings in his last outing against a not so good Cub offense, he sports a high ERA of 4.50 on the road, and that’s dangerous against a team as prolific at scoring runs as the rangers.

Tommy Hanson has yet to face these white sox and we will have to see how he reacts. It’s never easy to face a team for the first time though and there will be a few mistakes there. The tradition of high scores will continue here.



Marc Lawrence

Florida w/Sanchez vs Hanson Note: The Marlins and Braves battle in Game Two of this three-game weekend series in Atlanta Saturday afternoon when Anibal Sanchez meets Tommy Hanson at Turner Field in Atlanta. Sanchez takes the mound with wins in three of his last four road starts while standing 4-2 in his career road team starts during July. On the flip side, Hanson is 0-2 with a sky-high 17.55 ERA in his last two stars. He's also 1-4 in his career team starts in July. With that we'll back the Fish in this attractive underdog spot today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Florida. Good Luck - Marc Lawrence

Play on: Florida Marlins




VEGAS EXPERTS

After losing the first game of this four series the Twins bounced back last night to beat the Rays 2-1. Tonight the Twins send Liriano while the Rays start Davis. The sportsbooks have the Twins as lofty $150 favorites but the Rays are worth a look at this price considering that the Twins are only 7-14 this season after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game and Liriano has an awful 2-10 team start record when facing AL East opponents. Add in the fact that Tampa is 8-1 this season on the road against pitchers like Liriano and you have a very live dog in the Rays.

Play on: Tampa Bay




Jeff Alexander

MLB | Jul 03
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox
-1½-145 at BOOKM > 5h.
Free Play for July 3, 2010
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -1.5 -145
Bottom Line: I'll take Boston on the run line with Lester on the hill. The Red Sox have won 9 of Lester's last 12 starts, and all 9 of those wins have come by 2 or more runs. On the other side, the O's have lost 5 of Guthrie's last 6 starts, losing all 5 of those games by at least 3 runs. Furthermore, Baltimore is 0-12 with Guthrie on the mound over the last 2 seasons when facing AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs per game on the season. Baltimore is losing by an average score of 2.9 to 7.4 in these spots. It is also worth noting that Boston is 17-1 with Lester on the hill at home the last 3 seasons when facing AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game on the season. Boston is winning in these spots by an average score of 5.8 to 2.2. Take the Red Sox on the run line.



Dave Price

MLB | Jul 03
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers
-1½+126 at 5dimes > 5h.
Free Play for 7/3/10
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -1.5 +126
The Keys: The Mariners have been playing better baseball in recent weeks. They even took 2 of 3 from the Yanks. But this is still one of the worst road teams in baseball, and they got hit with a harsh dose of reality with yesterday's 7-1 defeat. The Tigers bring ace Justin Verlander to the hill, and they have won 8 of his last 11 starts by 2 runs or more. It is also worth noting that the Tigers are an impressive 28-5 in Verlander's last 33 home starts against a team with a losing record, winning these starts by an average score of 6.4 to 3.7. Take the Tigers showing solid value on the run line.




Jack Jones

MLB | Jul 03
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins Total
8½ ov-108 at 5dimes > 2h.
Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Rays/Twins OVER 8.5

The Rays and Twins have played part in a couple pitcher's duels in the first two games of this series, but as a result I find solid value on the OVER in Game 3. Wade Davis has really struggled this season for Tampa, going 5-9 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.464 WHIP. His numbers get even worse on the road, where he is 2-3 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. Francisco Liriano has been a solid starter this season for Minnesota, but he has faltered of late going 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over his last 3 starts.

I find the Rays scoring 5.6 RPG on the road this season, while the Twins are putting up 5.0 RPG at home and also hitting .285 here. The Twins are 39-20 to the OVER after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota and their opponents are coming back to average 10.6 RPG in this spot. The OVER is 10-3 in Rays last 13 games as a road underdog. The OVER is 5-2 in Davis' last 7 starts as an underdog. Look for the bats to come out to play tonight with 9 or more combined runs in the end. Take the OVER.




Black Widow

MLB | Jul 03
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers
-139 at 5dimes > 6h.
Widow's MLB Free Pick Saturday:

1* on Texas Rangers -139

We'll take the Rangers to get back in the win column tonight after 2 straight losses, including a blown 3-1 lead to the White Sox last night. Texas is 47-32 this season, and 28-13 at home where they are hitting .304 and scoring 6.1 runs/game. The White Sox are only hitting .252 and scoring 4.4 runs/game on the road. The edge on the mound goes to Tommy Hunter of the Rangers, who is 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 5 starts this season. John Danks sports a 4.50 ERA in 6 road starts, and Danks is 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA in 4 career starts against Texas. The Rangers are 21-7 (+10.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The Rangers are 9-0 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series and 7-0 in Hunter's last 7 starts as a home favorite. Take Texas on the Money Line.





Tom Freese

MLB | Jul 03
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Total
7½ un-120 at SPBOOK > 6h.
Colorado starter Ubaldo Jimenez is 11-5 UNDER in 16 starts this year Jimenez has allowed 23 runs total in his 16 starts. The Rockies are 6-2 UNDER their last 8 home games vs. lefty starters. Jimenez is 25-12-1 UNDER his last 38 starts overall. These teams have gone UNDER in 7 of their last 9 meetings. San Francisco starter Barry Zito is 10-6 UNDER in his 16 starts this year. The Giants are 10-3 UNDER their last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. Zito is 12-3-1 UNDER on Saturday and he is 5-0 UNDER vs. AL West teams. Zito is 8-3-1 his last 12 starts vs. the Rockies. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Jimenez vs. Zito)

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Re: 7-3-10

ROBERT MICHAEL - ROBCAT
HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-July 3rd

Capper: Robert Michael *Robcat* (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************


[959] Philidelphia |2*|-105|B+0|N/A|7:05 pm EST

[974] Detroit |2*|-170|B+0|N/A|7:05 pm EST

[975] Baltimore |2*|+282|B+0|N/A|7:10 pm EST

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SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +1.56 over SAN DIEGO Pinnacle

Because of a brutal start to the year and some ugly offensive stats as a result of that brutal start, the Astros continue to offer up great value almost daily. They were shutout last night in a 3-0 loss but they faced Matt Latos and he’s been tough as shoe leather all year. In its previous four games the Astros scored a combined 25 runs and they’ve also gone 6-4 over its last 10 games. In other words, they’re playing a lot better now and that’s because they underachieved early. This is a decent team with a winning percentage of just .395 so there’s just now way they keep that underachieving pace and its ascent has already begun. Bud Norris makes his second start since coming off the DL and that has to be a positive thing. It’s almost like a horse in his second start back after a long layoff. Norris has outstanding stuff but his 6.84 ERA is what is noticeable on paper and thus, the big take-back. Thing is, he has 60 k’s in 48 frames and he’s walked just 27 batters. Upon his return he struck out six and walked one and he’s only going to get better. In this park, against this offense he most certainly has a great chance for success. Lost in the Padres’ surprising NL West run has been Kevin Correia’s month-by-month decline - including a 7.83 ERA / 5.99 xERA in 23 IP in five June starts. In his last three starts at this pitcher-friendly venue, Correia has allowed 24 hits and 14 earned runs over 16 IP and two of those three starts were against Seattle and Toronto. Win or lose, Kevin Correia as a –1.65 favorite is just plain stupid. Play: Houston +1.56 (Risking 2 units).



COLORADO –1½ +1.06 over San Francisco Pinnacle

Barry Zito (39 BPV, 2-4-4-0-5 PQS) is still getting mileage out of that hot April (1.53 ERA, 81% strand rate), as his ERA is still a very respectable 3.43. But his ERA in May and June was 4.30 and 4.50, respectively. His fly-ball rate by month (39%, 42%, 50%) isn’t encouraging and neither is he. Zito will deliver some decent games the remainder of the year but don’t count on too many, especially in this park. What he hasn't done is discover a time machine that has allowed him to travel back to the year 2002 and retrieve the skills he had when he won the American League Cy Young. Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the high 80's, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre stuff that says he can't get out of trouble on his own ... and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. Fact is, he’s just not that good. Furthermore, the Giants are reeling with seven straight losses and one win over its last 10 games. They’ve scored three runs or less in seven straight and things surely don’t figure to get better here. Ubaldo Jimenez (90 BPV, 5-4-4-3-4 PQS) is still rolling along, going for his 15th win and still sporting a sub-2.00 ERA. His dominance/disaster splits are an amazing 94%/0%. The 90%+ strand rate he had in April and May finally pulled back in June, and he had a 4.41 ERA in the month but he’s still pitching very well and he’s still one of the best in the business. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.06 (Risking 2 units).



Los Angeles –1½ +1.04 over ARIZONA Pinnacle

It just so happened that the Dodgers were on the wrong end of a 17-run game last night when the D-Backs broke out for 12 runs. However, the Dodgers still scored five times and have now scored 34 runs over its last four games at this park. What can be expected when these two meet are runs galore and the majority of those runs for this one should come off the bats of the Dodgers. Rodrigo Lopez (30 BPV, 4-4-1-3-3 PQS) gets the nod tonight. Ian Kennedy was originally scheduled to start, but is being pushed back in an effort to mitigate the risk of overuse. Lopez has seen his command drop and fly balls rise after a decent April, and his current 4.42 ERA looks like a best-case scenario. The Dodgers have seen him twice already this year and that has to be a strong advantage for them. Clayton Kershaw (77 BPV, 4-5-5-5-5 PQS) comes into this game on a 10-game PQS-dominant streak. You have to go back to May 4th to find his only PQS disaster of the year. In 16 starts overall, Kershaw has a BAA of just .206 and he also has 108 k’s in 98 innings. This one could get ugly. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).



Cincinnati –1½ +1.31 over CHICAGO Pinnacle

What can one say about the Cubbies after yesterday’s totally humiliating defeat? Poor Ryan Dempster needed to throw a shutout and hit a home run himself to win yesterday. Lou didn't even show up to make any postgame remarks. Maybe he's finally had enough. Now Randy Wells will start with the winds blowing out to center at 15-20 MPH. Wells has gone eleven consecutive starts without a win, so this game is certainly a story of two starting pitchers on divergent paths. Wells has gone 11 consecutive starts without a win and that has to take its toll. He’s consistently served up a 25% line-drive rate this year and that simply spells big-time trouble with the winds blowing out. Johnny Cueto might allow a few runs too but his chances of a strong outing are about 100 times better than Wells chances. Cueto also is a strikeout pitcher and that, too, is a big asset when a favorable hitter’s wind is blowing at Wrigley. No matter how you break this one down, the Cubbies chances of winning aren’t good. This is a team in complete turmoil and aside from seeing BB’s at the plate, they’re mentally drained to the max. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.31 (Risking 2 units).



Milwaukee +1.85 over ST. LOUIS Pinnacle

The most overrated and overvalued team in baseball continues to be the St. Louis Cardinals and taking back a tag like this, despite Chris Carpenter going, comes highly recommended. It’s worth noting that despite going 3-0 in June, Carpenters skills are trending downward. His walks are up (eight in the last two games) and his groundball rate is coming down game by game. Let’s also not forget that he pitched just 21 innings combined in ’07 and ’08 followed by 192 frames last year so fatigue could be setting in. He also took a line drive off his arm in his last start and it stung badly. In fact, it wasn’t even clear that Carpenter was going to be able to make this start. Also note that Milwaukee’s lineup is hot, with a league-leading .491 SLG over the last seven days. Manny Parra (86 BPV, 3-5-5-3-2 PQS) has faced the Cardinals more than any other team in his career, and he probably wishes he could face them all the time. Among teams he’s faced more than three times, Parra’s 3.00 ERA against the Cardinals is his best. Over his last five starts, Parra has allowed more than three runs just one time and that includes a game in Colorado and a game against the Rangers. There is huge talent here and there is also huge value so get on Parra before he’s back on everyone’s radar. Play: Milwaukee +1.85 (Risking 2 units).



UFC 116

MGM Las Vegas, Nevada

Brock Lesnar –1.20 (-2½ Points) over Shane Carwin 5dimes

When this fight was first announced it looked like Shane Carwin would be the play. However, on the day of the fight it sure looks like Brock Lesnar sports all the value. The only doubt surrounding Brock Lesnar is his ring rust and health after being away from the game for a year with a serious case of diverticulitis. Before his absence, Brock won the UFC heavyweight title in just his 4th career MMA fight and looked to be unbeatable. The only blemish on his MMA record was a first round submission loss to Frank Mir when he was still very green in the octagon. Since then he completely destroyed the likes of Heath Herring, Randy Couture and Frank Mir. Shane Carwin is 12-0 in his MMA career and 4-0 in the UFC. Nobody has ever escaped the first round against Carwin but his opponents in those matches aren’t exactly a who's who of mixed martial arts. His first two fights in the UFC came against Neil Wain and Christian Wellisch. Wain was one and done in the UFC with that loss and Wellisch is 2-3 in the UFC. His next victory came against Gabriel Gonzaga who has lost four of his last seven fights in the UFC. Gonzaga actually caught him with some effective blows that seemed to daze Carwin before being caught with a short right that sent him to la-la-land. Carwin won the Interim heavyweight belt by completely obliterating Frank Mir. Anyone who saw that fight may have noticed that something was just not right with Mir. He looked unmotivated and absent in his walk to the octagon and in his corner before the fight. Shane Carwin is certainly impressive but he has never fought anyone with the athleticism and explosiveness of Brock Lesnar. Carwin sports some wrestling credentials but Lesnar's resume is second to none in the UFC. Brock will try to neutralize Carwin's striking ability by putting him on his back. He will smother him, try to invoke his lethal ground and pound and try to wear him out. There are questions surrounding Lesnar's cardio following his illness but who says Carwin won't gas-out past the 1st round? In winning every fight in the first round, his cardio has never been put to the test. It's very hard for an athlete to do something they have never done before and Carwin will have to do just that if he wants to be victorious here. Carwin has the biggest hands and heaviest hands in all of MMA but Lesnar should never give him the opportunity to land a lethal blow. Brock will dominate this fight with his superior wrestling and overall athleticism. He opened the fight nearly a 2-1 favorite but all the late money has been pouring in on Carwin. Late money in MMA isn't always smart money, as it came in by the boatload on Chuck Liddell at UFC 115 against Rich Franklin. A lot of that money is public money and it flies in after MMA fans watch the highlight packages that are almost always cut to glorify the underdog. The value in this "superfight" certainly appears to be with laying 2½ points with the ever- dominant Lesnar. If Brock wins "inside the distance" our wager is a winner and if it goes to decision he will have to win by 2½ combined judges points. It is very unlikely that it will go the distance but if it does Lesnar should easily cover that. Play: Brock Lesnar –2½ points –1.20 (Risking 2 units).





UFC 116

MGM Las Vegas, Nevada

Brendan Schaub by KO/TKO –1.42 over Chris Tuchscherer 5dimes

Brendan "The Hybrid" Schaub is a guy that the UFC has been pushing for a while now. He made it all the way to the finals of the 'Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights' edition but lost to Roy "Big Country" Nelson. Schaub certainly had credentials entering the UF house, playing professional football until starting off 4-0 in his mixed martial arts career. He rebounded from his loss to Nelson with a very impressive 47 second, first round KO of Chase Gormley. Chris Tuchscherer entered the UFC with a 17-1 record but was knocked out by Gabriel Gonzaga in his UFC debut. He came back to beat Tim Hague via majority decision in his next bout but that's the same Tim Hague that's lost three consecutive matches. Schaub is a natural athlete loaded with speed and explosiveness. He will dictate the pace of the fight with his edge in both wrestling and striking. Tuchscherer's biggest asset, his large frame, will actually be a liability against the quicker and more agile Schaub. Brendan Schaub is certainly a fighter on the rise and Tuchscherer is just a stepping-stone on his way upward. He is a fighter that likes to finish his fights and you can rest assure he will be looking for the knockout blow early and often. Play: Brendan Schaub by TKO/KO (Risking 2.82 units to win 2).