7-4-10

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

DUNKEL MLB

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs

The Reds look to build on their 5-0 record in their last 5 games as an underdog. Cincinnati is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JULY 4
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: NY Mets at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Takahashi) 14.805; Washington (Stammen) 14.282
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Over

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.361; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 13.895
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135); Over

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 15.639; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.464
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+140); Over

Game 907-908: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 15.230; Cubs (Lilly) 14.408
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105); N/A

Game 909-910: San Francisco at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.575; Colorado (Hammel) 13.905
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Over

Game 911-912: Houston at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 16.743; San Diego (LeBlanc) 15.747
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+140); Under

Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 16.418; Arizona (Haren) 14.705
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-105); Over

Game 915-916: Florida at Atlanta (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 14.396; Atlanta (Hudson) 15.105
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-175); Under

Game 917-918: Seattle at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Lee) 15.794; Detroit (Bonderman) 14.954
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Over

Game 919-920: Oakland at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 15.159; Cleveland (Carmona) 14.847
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120); Over

Game 921-922: Toronto at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 13.584; NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.168
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-210); Under

Game 923-924: Baltimore at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 13.561; Boston (Lackey) 15.852
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-210); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-210); Under

Game 925-926: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.907; Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.462
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Under

Game 927-928: Chicago White Sox at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.870; Texas (Feldman) 16.340
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Over

Game 929-930: Kansas City at LA Angels (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Lerew) 16.274; LA Angels (Pineiro) 15.784
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+160); Over

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

Hondo

Hondo rolled with the Rangers last night to slash the number on the big red deficit toteboard to 735 gantners.


Today, it's a good day for a Brew and a 'dog, and Mr. Aitch gets both with Gallardo -- 10 units on Mil waukee to chug to victory at Busch Stadium.-$



Even though Joey "Dog Breath" Chestnut is the heavy favorite in today's hot dog eating contest, don't disregard Humble Bob Shoudt, who's listed at 300-to-1. Humble Bob set a world record for eating chili spaghetti in 2008 when he downed 13.5 pounds of the stuff in 10 minutes. Shortly after that mile stone he set the record for synchronized belching and flatulence. It makes you wonder how he stays so humble.

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the A's Saturday night. Sunday it's the A's.


The deficit is 845 sirignanos

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

CAPPERS ACCESS
Nationals
Twins

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-July 4th

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************

[903] Philadelphia |-130|B+0|Network N/A|1:35 pm EST

[910] SF/Col |UNDER|8 Runs|Network N/A|3:10 pm EST

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

Sportrends 7/4

MLB Take ST Louis W/Wainwright over Milwaukee W/Gallardo NO PLAY if < -155 or > -175

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

Marc Lawrence Comp

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

When the Cubs send Ted Lilly to the hill against the Reds in the wrap-up of this four-game series at Wrigley Field this afternoon they will do so knowing Lilly in is terrific KW form with five walks and 29 strikeouts in his last five starts. He's also 4-1 in his last five team starts in July. While Cincinnati went 6-1 in Mike Leake's first seven team starts this season, they are just 3-5 in his last eight efforts of late. With that, we'll stay at home with Lilly and the Cubs here this afternoon.

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

EZWINNERS COMP

Seattle Mariners -116

The Mariners starting pitcher Cliff Lee is the top prize for teams looking to make a deal before the trade deadline and for good reason. Lee thre his third straight complete game in his last start Tuesday against the Yankees. In those three complete games Lee has dominated on his way to a 3-0 record and an ERA of just 1.33. I expect another solid outing from the lefty here as he takes on the Tigers. Detroit's starting pitcher Jeremy Bonderman has been shaky lately. Bonderman is 2-1 in his last three starts but it is due to some very nice run support as his ERA is 4.91 in those three starts. I don't expect him to benefit from much run support in this start with Cliff Lee on the mound as the opposing pitcher. In two starts this season against the Mariners, Bonderman is 0-1 with an ERA of 6.55 so I expect the Seattle bats to be able to put some runs on the board for Lee. The Mariners are 7-1 in Lee's last eight starts as a favorite. Play on Seattle.

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

Jimmy Boyd
Free play

1 Unit on New York Mets -103

After yesterday's disappointing loss, giving up 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth, I look for the Mets to bounce back strong this afternoon. The Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss. After back-to-back quality efforts against the Orioles and the Yankees in their ballparks, Takahashi has had a pair of rough outings. I like his chances of getting back on track today, though, as the Nationals are 12-28 in their last 40 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Nats send Stammen to the hill, and they are just 3-7 in his last 10 starts. They are also 4-10 in his last 14 starts versus a team with a winning record. He is carrying a 5.24 ERA in 4 career starts against New York. Also, the Mets are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Compare that to the Nationals, who are 8-23 in their last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. I'm taking the Mets.

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

Jack Jones
Free play

White Sox/Rangers OVER 10

The runs should come in bunches tonight in the White Sox vs. Rangers Game 3 Sunday. Both Mark Buehrle and Scott Feldman have taken a step back this season. Buehrle is 6-7 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.495 WHIP this season for Chicago, while Feldman is 5-7 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.636 WHIP this year for Texas. The OVER is 8-7-1 in Buehrle's 16 starts, while the OVER is 11-4-1 in Feldman's 16 starts. Buehrle has faced the Rangers twice this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in 12.1 innings for a 7.30 ERA. Feldman has also faced the White Sox twice this year, giving up 8 runs, 6 earned, in 14 innings. Both of Feldman's starts vs. Chicago have gone OVER the number this year with combined scores of 12 and 14.

This Texas line-up is one of the best in the big leagues, especially at home where they are hitting .304 and scoring 6.1 RPG. The White Sox are hitting the ball with much more authority over the past few weeks, scoring 5 or more runs in 9 of their last 16 games. The OVER is 7-1-1 in the Rangers last 9 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The OVER is 9-1-2 in Feldman's last 12 starts as a favorite. Take the OVER in this game Sunday night.

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

Gill Alexander
Free play

TOR (+190) vs NYY

Much has been made of Morrow having a poor road mark this season, posting a 6.69ERA in 8 road starts. But his last 2 road outings have been quality efforts @ Col and Cle. He has a 2.25ERA in his last 3 outings overall and two starts prior to that stretch, went 7IP v NYY, yielding just 1ER on 4H w 8SO against just 1BB. He has a 3.13ERA in 9 appearances v NYY. Jeter, ARod, and Teixera are a combined 5-for-31 (.161) v Morrow. Though Hughes has a tidy 3.68ERA in 5 starts v Tor, he has a 6.29ERA in his last 4 starts overall. He's coming off a 5.2IP, 6ER, 10H raking v Sea. Sabermetrics smiles on both Morrow and Hughes. Morrow has a 3.44 FIP and 3.89 xFIP. Hughes has a 3.39FIP and 3.95xFIP. However, Morrow's numbers are coupled with a .331BABIP, the 14th "luckiest" mark in MLB, telling us that he's poised for even more quality efforts. Yes, we got nailed on the 3* yesterday, backing Ricky Romero and the Jays v NYY and the Yanks put an 11 run 3rd inning together to beat us. But, that doesn't make the reasoning behind it unsound. It's so sound, in fact, that I have no hesitation going back to that well again Sunday morning, at an even more attractive +190.

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

Sac Lawson
Free plays

COL / SFG Under 8

First off, wind is blowing in at Coors. Not a huge deal, but quite frankly, even a 5-10 MPH wind blowing in is something that certainly won't hurt our UNDER play.

With that said, this play is definitely based off our starters. These teams have gone UNDER the total in 7 of their last 10 meetings against each other. What's even better though, is that Matt Cain is 1-12 O/U against Colorado in his career. The guy flat out LOVES facing this Rockies roster (even though they're mostly lefties), and although it's unfortunate for him, it's fortunate for us that his team usually fails to give him much run support against the Rocks. Cain has not been in great form lately, but his numbers against the Rockies are tough to ignore, and the fact that this side line is so short, even with him struggling and going up against a guy in Hammel who is undefeated at home, really makes me think he'll pitch well today.

Speaking of Hammel, the guy is indeed undefeated at home, and for that reason I do feel comfortable backing a guy that is struggling a bit in his own right. The guy flat out finds ways to win in his home park, just like the Giants flat out find ways to leave men on base on the road.

Both pitchers come in with signs of mediocrity in their recent performances, but a close side line, and a total of 8, tells me that Hammel's success at home, and Cains success against the Rockies will be the most influential trends in the result of the game. Let's go UNDER!


WAS (-110) vs NYM

There is no doubt that Craig Stammen won't be in the majors for long. When the Nationals finally get healthy in their rotation, his roster spot will most likely be gone. Quite frankly, I'm okay with backing mediocrity here. For one, we've got 4th of July in our Nations capitol, which means that this game is an important one for the Nats and the home crowd. But most importantly, we've got Takahashi on the mound against a team that has seen him before....

My rule on Takahashi is similar to my rule on many up n comers, back first, fade 2nd. In other words, when facing a team for the first time, it's usually safer to back them, whereas the second time around a straight fade is usually profitable. Takahashi has one of the craziest deliveries in the sport, and as a result the first time through the lineup is always tough for hitters. His ball is tough to spot out of his hand, and it seriously takes some getting used to. The Nationals have seen this guy out of the pen a bit this season, and most of their roster has at least a couple at bats off the dude. Doesn't sound like much, but seriously, 3rd and 4th at bats against Takahashi have been straight up deadly! With so much power on the right side of the plate for the Nats, and enough speed on the left side to make it interesting, I do think the Nationals get some serious run support for Stammen today.

I'll fade the lefty here against a roster that has seen enough of him this year to be able to adjust to that crazy arm movement that Takahashi shows. Don't be afraid to back Stammen... even if we get down early, the second time through the Nationals lineup should provide plenty of runs to get the Nationals the lead, and possibly put them in a position to win another game in the 9th, which has been their style the last few days.


MIN (-105) vs TAM

First off, this line should be +105, not -105. The Pregame system does not let you edit a play once it has been locked in. No doubt a good thing to have in place, ensuring honesty and all, but it's unfortunate when small mistakes such as this are made.

That said... Tampa Bay and Minnesota. Obviously Minnesota at home is always a money-making situation. Especially today, with a guy who is definitely giving people reason to worry as Nick Blackburn is. Don't get me wrong, this guy has been really bad lately, but any time I can back a guy that is 5-0 at home at an underdog price, I've gotta do so. It's no secret around major league baseball that Blackburn is one of the biggest home fielders there is. He simply does not pitch well on the road. But with an ERA in the mid 3's at home over the last 4 seasons, and an ERA in the low 3's for day games, I do think we see him bounce back today.

On the other side, Shields has definitely struggled lately. It's been hit-ability more than anything else. He's simply giving up far too many hits, and making far too many costly mistakes in pressure situations. The Twins at home are one tough cookie, and although there is little doubt that Shields is a decent starter, it's tough to suggest that he'll turn the corner against one of the toughest left-handed lineups in baseball, and on the road none the less.

Like I said, I love getting a guy that is 5-0 at home at an underdog price. No doubt both of these starters come into this game struggling, but I'll take the home field pitcher to bounce off a rough stretch first in most situations. Take the Twins for 1.5 units!

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

TRENDS


TORONTO vs. NY YANKEES
Toronto is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Yankees are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games at home
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto

SEATTLE vs. DETROIT
Seattle is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Detroit is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home

OAKLAND vs. CLEVELAND
Oakland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
Cleveland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland

PHILADELPHIA vs. PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Pittsburgh is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games

BALTIMORE vs. BOSTON
Baltimore is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Boston
Baltimore is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Boston is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Boston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

NY METS vs. WASHINGTON
NY Mets are 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Washington
NY Mets are 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against NY Mets

TAMPA BAY vs. MINNESOTA
Tampa Bay is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Minnesota is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games

MILWAUKEE vs. ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Milwaukee is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

CINCINNATI vs. CHI CUBS
Cincinnati is 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home
Chi Cubs are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games

SAN FRANCISCO vs. COLORADO
San Francisco is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
San Francisco is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Colorado is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Colorado is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

HOUSTON vs. SAN DIEGO
Houston is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games
Houston is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games on the road
San Diego is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
San Diego is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Houston

LA DODGERS vs. ARIZONA
LA Dodgers are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing Arizona
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
Arizona is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
Arizona is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games when playing LA Dodgers

FLORIDA vs. ATLANTA
Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Florida is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Florida

CHI WHITE SOX vs. TEXAS
Chi White Sox are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
Texas is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
Texas is 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing Chi White Sox

KANSAS CITY vs. LA ANGELS
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
LA Angels are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games when playing Kansas City
LA Angels are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

KIKI SPORTS

Sunday July 4th

1 unit Milwaukee +1.45
1 unit Cincinnati +1.15
1 unit Seattle -1.20

[spook]

Re: 7-4-10

Sportrends 7/4

MLB Take ST Louis W/Wainwright over Milwaukee W/Gallardo NO PLAY if < -155 or > -175