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20 DIME COLORADO ROCKIES laying the 1½ runs over the Padres in N.L. West action. Both Jorge De La Rosa (Colorado) and Kevin Correia (San Diego) must start this game or this play is VOID!
5 DIME HOUSTON ASTROS plus the big money over the Cardinals in N.L. Central action. Note that you must list Bud Norris as Houston’s starting pitcher. If Norris does not start, this play is VOID!
Rockies (-1½ runs)
Gotta ride the scorching-hot Rockies tonight, even though their starting pitcher tonight (Jorge De La Rosa) is coming off an 11-week stint on the disabled list and hasn’t pitched since April 25.
Colorado just swept the Cardinals – including two incredible come-from-behind victories on Tuesday and Wednesday – and it has won four in a row, six of seven on its current homestand and eight of 10 (including two wins in San Diego). With this recent surge, the Rockies are a season-high nine games over .500 and just 2 ½ games back of the Padres in the N.L. West.
As for De La Rosa, I know he got lit up in his final rehab start last week, but he was solid in his first two minor-league outings. Besides, pitching in the Pacific Coast League is not necessarily a gauge on how good a guy’s stuff is. Rather, take a look at what De La Rosa did before tearing a tendon in his finger in late April: He went 3-1 with a 3.91 ERA in his first four starts, including 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA at home. That includes a dominating 7-0 win over the Padres on April 9 (the lefty gave up just one hit and one walk with nine Ks in seven innings). And going back to last September, Colorado is 3-0 when De La Rosa faces San Diego, and De La Rosa was brilliant in two of those three starts (one run, six hits in 14 innings).
The Rockies (now 29-15 at home) have won six of nine from San Diego this season, and they’re 4-1 the last five times they’ve faced Padres right-hander Kevin Correia (all since the start of the 2009 season). In those five games, Correia gave up a total of 18 runs in 25 1/3 innings (6.40 ERA), including two losses this year by scores of 5-2 and 10-6 – and both of those games were in pitcher-friendly Petco Park!
Correia is coming off a strong 1-0 home win over the Astros, but his ERA since the end of May is still a bloated 6.50. Also, he’s 2-2 with a 6.07 ERA on the road this year, and all six of San Diego’s losses with Correia starting this season have been by multiple runs.
The Rockies are 8-2 in De La Rosa’s last 10 starts dating to last September (five wins by multiple runs) and they’re an astonishing 21-5 in his last 26 trips to the mound, 13-3 in his last 16 Coors Field starts, 5-0 in his last five Friday outings and 6-0 the last six times he’s opened a series.
Astros
Why not take a shot with Houston at this rich underdog price at home? The Astros just finished off a three-game sweep of the Pirates (giving up just five runs in the three victories), and they’ve won five straight home games. St. Louis just got swept in a three-game series at Colorado and it has lost six of its last eight overall and 11 of 15 on the road (including the last four in a row).
I know the pitching matchup here – on paper anyway – favors the Cardinals in a big way (hence the big odds). But as great as Adam Wainwright has been this season for the Redbirds, he’s a sub-.500 pitcher on the road (3-5 despite a 3.20 ERA, and St. Louis has lost six of his nine road starts). And while the Cardinals are 6-0 when Wainwright pitches in day games, they’re 6-6 when he throws at night.
Yes, Wainwright has dominated the Astros the last three seasons, leading the Cardinals to nine wins in 10 tries since the start of the 2007 season (and he’s given up just 12 runs in 70 innings (1.54 ERA). But look at what Houston right-hander Bud Norris has done in four career starts (two this year, two last year) against St. Louis: 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA (he’s allowed two runs – one earned – in 26 innings).
In fact, since the start of last August, Norris is 4-0 with a 0.35 in four starts against the Cardinals, but 4-9 with a 6.94 ERA in 17 other starts!
With Norris leading the way, the Astros have won four straight against the Cards this year (all in St. Louis), and Houston is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Texas
VR's Morning Moves | MLB Money Linedouble-dime bet 968 TOR (+120) Bodog vs 967 BOSAnalysis: ** MLB MORNING MOVES 2* BOOKIE BET **
BLUE JAYS +120....(2*)....ROMERO over Lester
The Red Sox can't get to the All-Star Break fast enough, after losing 4 straight games heading into this Final Series with the Jays...On the flip side, Toronto comes in off beating the Twins in 2 of 3...and sit at .500 for the season...So we can be sure, they definitely want to reach that goal of staying above .500 going into the break...
More importantly, we have a starting pitcher whose Home/Away SPLITS are huge...Romero has an ERA above 5.00 on the Road...and an ERA below 1.50 at Home...Where he also sports a WHIP of less than 1.00...So he will be extremely tough to beat whenever he gets the start at Home, where he'll be tonight...
Finally...as good of a season as Lester is having...when you look at his results on the Road...you will find that the Red Sox have only gone "4-4" in his starts...And after beating the Jays in Toronto early in the season, I expect the Home team to get some revenge here tonight...
S let's go ahead and back a winning team at Home...with an incredible Home pitcher on the mound...at a DOG Price based on Perception along...And see if we can add another winner to our Morning Moves Program...VR
Stan is Betting OAKLAND today. Stan notes that the ANGELS can't buy a run right now. In their last 8 games they have scored 2 runs or less in 7 of them. Both teams are on losing streaks but Oakland just played the Red Hot Yankees and they were winning before that. Both pitchers are razor sharp. Oakland is 12-4 at home this season following a game in which they were held to 2 runs or less. These 2 split a 4 game series here in June but Oakland outscored them 19-13 in their 4 games
BK PROFESSIONAL SPORTS BETTING
BK's TOP PLAY Friday
BK Professional Sports Betting went 1-0/+$200..Guys got 1 play tonight that I really like and will make it our TOP PLAY..For my action junkies ALL THESE WERE STRONG LEANS!!!! Phillies..Braves...Royals...Rockies...A' s!!!!
TONIGHT'S PLAYS
D'BACKS Risking $280 to win $200...Guys I could fill this page with the reasons this play is worthy of a 2U risk just on what I have capped it out!!! This play became VERY SHARP around 1pm(ish)..We got the BOOKS with almost a dead even split!!! BOOKS react quickly to increase the risk on D'Backs by -10/100 and the Marlins they took them from a +110 to a +130!!! BOOKS DON'T WANT D'BACK MONEY AND THEY ARE BAITING THE SQUARES FOR FLORIDA MONEY!!!!
Posted by BK Professional Sports Betting at 6:21 PM
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Bernie's 7/09 TOP MLB PLAYS OF THE DAY!!
Well we went 2-0-1 +2.00 Units on Wed and we passed on Thursday and we are now 5-1 this week! Lets keep it going tonight fellas!
TOP MLB PLAY OF THE DAY
2** Red Sox -141 vs Blue Jays
1* Angels/A's UNDER 8
1* Arizona -144 vs Florida
Mike Hook | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/09/10 - 7:10 PM
double-dime bet 955 ATL (-112) Sportbet vs 956 NYM
Analysis: The Atlanta Braves -112 is one of 2 DOUBLE STAR selections today!
Also included with this 2 for 1 package is some MMA tonight! Here are those 2 MMA plays!
TATSUYA KAWAJIRI -115 Shinya Aoki
MITSUHIRO ISHIDA -200 Daiki Hata
I believe we have a distinct pitching edge tonight in our favor. I trust Tommy Hanson far more than i trust R.A. Dickey.
Dickey has been great up to this point, but at some point he's going to revert back to the R.A. Dickey that so many of us all know. I believe that night is TONIGHT. After all, the Braves came out as the listed favorite here, despite how great the Mets have been at home this season. I took notice of this line the moment it came out.
Over the past few years, Tommy Hanson is a guy that i've backed OFTEN. I realize he had a few bad performances recently, but i think he's over that stretch. In my opinion, Hanson has the track record to prove that those few starts were nothing but a blip on the radar screen. Hanson has been brilliant against the Mets in the past, and i see no reason why that doesn't continue tonight.
Coming into tonight, the Braves are playing the better baseball as a team. The Mets have been very inconsistent of laŒte, something they will need to fix if they are to beat the Braves in this series. Meanwhile, the Braves keep winning series after series. I trust this Braves team, and i trust Tommy Hanson.
I can't say the same for R.A. Dickey. The price you are paying on Dickey right now is the ultimate PREMIUM. I just don't see how he is worthy of this honor, at least not against the Braves and Tommy Hanson.
The Braves win this game 5-2 tonight. The Braves -112 is one of 2 DOUBLE STAR SELECTION tonight!
Mike Hook | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/09/10 - 10:10 PM
double-dime bet 965 CHC (+137) Bodog vs 966 LOS
Analysis: The Chicago Cubs +137 is the 2nd DOUBLE STAR Play for today!
I knew the moment last night's game was over that i was going to be all over the Cubs tonight. Here's why:
1. The Cubs are playing better of late. This team has become a good road dog all of a sudden.
2. They lost a very close game last night. That's important, as this team appears to be quite streaky and emotional. The fact that they were quite competitive last night says a lot.
3. I FIRMLY believe the Cubs have the BETTER starting pitcher going tonight. Ted Lilly is a QUALITY START MACHINE. He is pitching against the team that originally drafted him. He will be pitching in front of numerous family and friends. THIS START means a great deal to a TRUE COMPETITOR. This can't be understated.
4. I don't believe in Chad Billingsley yet. Yes, he has been sharp since coming back from injury. But that was only 2 starts. How will he fare tonight against a team that's quite talented and finally starting to play to expectations??
5. This line is VALUE. Quite frankly, this line is just too high. I expected something like .25 cents lower on this line. I know value when i see it. Tonight is value.
Behind a great pitching performance from Ted Lilly, the Cubs will score just enough to win this game. The Cubs +137 is a SWEET, SWEET, DOUBLE STAR SELECTION!
VR's Morning Moves | MLB Money Linedouble-dime bet 968 TOR (+120) Bodog vs 967 BOSAnalysis: ** MLB MORNING MOVES 2* BOOKIE BET **
BLUE JAYS +120....(2*)....ROMERO over Lester
The Red Sox can't get to the All-Star Break fast enough, after losing 4 straight games heading into this Final Series with the Jays...On the flip side, Toronto comes in off beating the Twins in 2 of 3...and sit at .500 for the season...So we can be sure, they definitely want to reach that goal of staying above .500 going into the break...
More importantly, we have a starting pitcher whose Home/Away SPLITS are huge...Romero has an ERA above 5.00 on the Road...and an ERA below 1.50 at Home...Where he also sports a WHIP of less than 1.00...So he will be extremely tough to beat whenever he gets the start at Home, where he'll be tonight...
Finally...as good of a season as Lester is having...when you look at his results on the Road...you will find that the Red Sox have only gone "4-4" in his starts...And after beating the Jays in Toronto early in the season, I expect the Home team to get some revenge here tonight...
S let's go ahead and back a winning team at Home...with an incredible Home pitcher on the mound...at a DOG Price based on Perception along...And see if we can add another winner to our Morning Moves Program...VR
--Yesterday proved to be invaluable! Although The betting series with
Pittsburgh began with them being within the .15 range of RPI
differential, that quickly changed as soon as they lost their first
game. Pittsburgh had an RPI of .459 to Houston's .477 (.18 difference)
before the [B} wager began, and an even greater deficit before the
[C] game began. We must keep in mind that under no circumstances
should a wager be made when the RPI difference between two teams is
greater than .15. Going forward, it's important to walk away from a
betting series if the RPI difference between two teams become
greater than the .15 limit during any time within the series!
For today, we have an official [A] wager on the Saint Louis Cardinals
in their game versus the Houston Astros. This betting series will be
100% within the RPI differential filter throughout the entire series,
so it is literally guaranteed for the win! Load it up!
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