7-10-10

[spook]

Re: 7-10-10

STEVE MERRIL

Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Total
9 over

FREE PLAY

For the third straight time, Brian Bannister and Gavin Floyd will face off against each other as the White Sox host the Royals. Bannister is 1-2 with a 9.69 ERA against the White Sox so far this season. Those are approximately his career numbers against Chicago as his ERA is 7.97 in 15 outings against them. A.J. Pierzynski (13-31), Alexei Ramirez (8-20), Alex Rios (6-13), Carlos Quentin (5-12), Juan Pierre (3-9), Mark Kotsay (4-7), Andruw Jones (2-5), and Dayan Viciedo (1-2) all hit the righty well. The White Sox have scored 27 runs so far in their 5-game homestand, and they are hitting over .280 as a team in their past eight games.

Gavin Floyd is 1-2 with a 6.16 ERA in three starts against the Royals. The righty has given up 14 runs and 30 hits over 19 innings pitched against them. Floyd is 2-7 with a 5.40 ERA in 10 overall career starts against Kansas City. David DeJesus (9-32), Billy Butler (7-24), Mike Aviles (6-19), Alberto Callaspo (6-17), Yuniesky Betancourt (6-16), Scott Podsednik (3-10), Jason Kendall (2-7), Mitch Maier (2-7), Willie Bloomquist (1-3), and Chris Getz (2-3) all have the most success against Floyd. The Royals have now gone Over in 21 of their 33 games against A.L. Central opponents, and they’ve also gone Over in four of their last five games overall. We expect another high-scoring game here so we’ll recommend a play on the Over between the Royals and White Sox tonight.

[spook]

Re: 7-10-10

Derek Mancini
Free play

Easy Free Play winner with Boston routing Toronto 14-3 last night! N.L. action Saturday with the Arizona hosting Florida in the 3rd game of their 4-game set tonight.

Not been pretty of late for the Snakes, who are the midst of a 1-6 slide, with all those games being played at Chase Field. However, with that being said, I'm seeing a light at the end of the tunnel in this match up, and that's thanks to the tired arm of Nate Robertson (6-6, 4.94 ERA).

After just 49 2/3 innings last season due to injury, Robertson has managed to stay healthy this year, amassing 89 1/3 innings. But that's not necessarily a good thing, being that he's clearly starting to fatigue, and his numbers prove it: 2-2 with a 7.12 ERA over his L6 starts. He's had real trouble on the road this season (5.28 ERA away), including terrible efforts at the Mets and Orioles in the last month.

Ian Kennedy (3-7, 4.16 ERA) hasn't been much better lately, but the one thing you can hang your hat on, is he's been far more effective at Chase Field. He's posted a solid 3.47 ERA at home this season (WHIP of 1.03), and after giving up a career worst 7 runs in his last one, I expect he'll be looking to bounce back strong tonight. Prior to his implosion vs the Cubs, he posted 5 straight quality efforts at home.

Lay it with Arizona tonight, as they get a strong bounce back effort from Ian Kennedy. Snakes offense hasn't been great lately, but a match up against a tired Robertson is just what they need to get going again. Arizona (Kennedy) over Florida (Robertson) Saturday.
3? ARIZONA

[spook]

Re: 7-10-10

Derek Mancini
Free play

Easy Free Play winner with Boston routing Toronto 14-3 last night! N.L. action Saturday with the Arizona hosting Florida in the 3rd game of their 4-game set tonight.

Not been pretty of late for the Snakes, who are the midst of a 1-6 slide, with all those games being played at Chase Field. However, with that being said, I'm seeing a light at the end of the tunnel in this match up, and that's thanks to the tired arm of Nate Robertson (6-6, 4.94 ERA).

After just 49 2/3 innings last season due to injury, Robertson has managed to stay healthy this year, amassing 89 1/3 innings. But that's not necessarily a good thing, being that he's clearly starting to fatigue, and his numbers prove it: 2-2 with a 7.12 ERA over his L6 starts. He's had real trouble on the road this season (5.28 ERA away), including terrible efforts at the Mets and Orioles in the last month.

Ian Kennedy (3-7, 4.16 ERA) hasn't been much better lately, but the one thing you can hang your hat on, is he's been far more effective at Chase Field. He's posted a solid 3.47 ERA at home this season (WHIP of 1.03), and after giving up a career worst 7 runs in his last one, I expect he'll be looking to bounce back strong tonight. Prior to his implosion vs the Cubs, he posted 5 straight quality efforts at home.

Lay it with Arizona tonight, as they get a strong bounce back effort from Ian Kennedy. Snakes offense hasn't been great lately, but a match up against a tired Robertson is just what they need to get going again. Arizona (Kennedy) over Florida (Robertson) Saturday.
3? ARIZONA

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Re: 7-10-10

Stephen Nover Comp

I am 37-22-1 on my past 60 complimentary selections following Friday's no-play on the Yankees-Mariners matchup with the traded Cliff Lee an obvious scratch.

But I did cash on my lone paid selection Friday, a 30-dime winner on the Tigers, and am looking forward to my 35-dime winner tonight.

After missing all of last season due to elbow surgery, Oakland's Ben Sheet finally is getting his stamina and fastball back. He went a season-high 7 1/3 innings versus the Yankees in his last start. He has 17 strikeouts in his past three starts.

Sheets hasn't given up more than four earned runs during any of his last 12 starts. That consistency should be enough to beat the Angels and a struggling Scott Kazmir.

Kazmir is much worse than his 7-8 record. His 5.98 ERA is indicative of that. But even that high ERA doesn't explain how bad Kazmir has become.

Kazmir has always relied on a slider that was one of the best in the American League. But he's lost that pitch, which has forced him to become more of a nibbler than a thrower. He is struggling to make that adjustment.

The last time Kazmir's average pitch per inning count was less than 17 1/2 was back in May. He has been brutal in his last three starts. During this span, Kazmir has surrendered 17 runs in just 14 2/3 innings throwing 284 pitches.
2? OAKLAND (WITH BOTH PITCHERS LISTED)

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Re: 7-10-10

EZWINNERS COMP

(908) Philadelphia Phillies -$220

The Phillies send their ace pitcher Roy Halliday to the mound for this start against the Reds. Halladay continues to throw complete games on a regular basis and has been a work horse for Philadelphia keeping the suspect Phillies bullpen out of his games. Halliday has now thrown seven complete games this season and has lasted at least seven innings in fifteen of his eighteen starts. Halliday's ERA is only 2.33 this year and his strikeout to walk ratio is a ridiculous 119 to 17. I don't see anything changing as I expect him to pitch another outstanding game here as well. Cincinnati sends their rookie pitcher Travis Wood to the mound for this game at Philadelphia. Wood looks to have a bright future, but I don't expect him to out duel Doc Halladay in this match up. Wood's margin for error is very small and I expect the Philadelphia bats to do enough damage for the Phillies to pick up the win here. The Reds are only 5-12 in their last seventeen meetings with the Phillies. Play on Philadelphia.

[spook]

Re: 7-10-10

MARC LAWRENCE COMP

Play On: Oakland w/Sheets vs Kazmir
Note: The A's and Angels meet in Game Two of this three-game weekend set in Oakland tonight when Ben Sheets matches serves with Scott Kazmir. Sheets takes the mound having cashed in four of his last six home team starts and 10 of his last 16 team starts during July. On the flip side, Kazmir is 3-10 in his career team starts on the road during the month of July. Back the better arm here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland.


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#42 07-10-2010, 07:41 AM

[spook]

Re: 7-10-10

BIG AL COMP

At 8:10 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Diego Padres. Look up the term "smoke and mirrors" in the dictionary and you should see Wade Leblanc's picture. The 25-year-old lefthander for San Diego who is now in his third MLB season, has somehow put up an ERA of 3.10 after 15 starts, despite a K-to-BB ratio of just 58:33 and a WHIP of over 1.4. Leblanc doesn't throw hard and obviously benefits from his home ballpark, Petco, which has been one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in the Majors for the past several years. Leblanc has a won-lost record of just 4-6 and although the Padres have a 9-6 record in his 15 starts, it should be noted that four of those victories were against the Diamondbacks, Orioles, Mariners, and Astros. Righthander Jason Hammel will get the start for the Rockies and after a very rocky start (no pun intended) which saw Hammel with a 2-3 record and ridiculous 6.93 ERA through April and May, this guy has really settled down in a big way since then and has become perhaps the second ace of the staff (after All-Star Ubaldo Jimenez). It remains to be seen if he can keep it up, but the Rocks certainly don't mind putting him out there every five days to find out and this is a critical series for the Rockies heading into the break as they sit tied with the Dodgers three games behind this Padres team. Hammel just beat the Padres and Leblanc 6-3 in San Diego and now he gets to try and repeat that feat at home. Take the Rockies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

[spook]

Re: 7-10-10

SEAN MURPHY COMP

This play is on Uruguay +1 goal -170 in regulation time only.

The Germans are saying all the right things (most of them at least), but I think they're going to be hard pressed to stir up enough emotion to win this match handily.

The 1-0 loss to Spain was obviously an extremely bitter defeat. Germany is still pondering what could have been had it not elected to sit back and wait for a Spanish mistake rather than go on the attack.

Germany did win the third place game at the World Cup four years ago, but I feel that this edition of the squad had set a much loftier goal for itself late in the tournament. This group knows that it let a tremendous opportunity slip away, and given the youth on the team, I'm not convinced they'll regroup in time for Saturday's contest.

For Uruguay, there was disappointment in losing to the Netherlands in the semi-final, but this is a team that had already exceeded expectations. Who would have thought that they would be the last South American team standing in the semi-finals.

The Uruguayans would have needed all hands on deck to take down an attacking Holland squad on Tuesday, and the absence of Luis Suarez was certainly a major factor in their defeat. Suarez will of course be back on the pitch on Saturday, and all indications are that we'll see all hands on deck from the Uruguayan side.

By contrast, German boss Joachim Loew has indicated that he may give his reserves some additional playing time as a reward for their readiness here in South Africa.

There are injury issues on both sides, as Miroslav Klose and Diego Forlan are hoping to play, but probably won't be at 100%. There's also been rumblings that German forward Lucas Podolski is battling a case of the flu. It looks like Forlan will give it a go, which is obviously huge for Uruguay. As for the Germans, it's been very hush-hush leading up to this match, and to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a much different looking squad on the pitch today.

Another third place finish is no real consolation for the Germans, while Uruguay would love to take something away from what was certainly been a positive experience in South Africa. I expect this to be a hard-fought battle all the way. Don't count on a wide margin of victory in favor of Germany. Take Uruguay +1 goal -170.

[spook]

Re: 7-10-10

The ASIAn Executive

Over The Total Lock of the Month - Pirates Brewers Over
Vegas Line Error of the Year - Red Sox
Under The Total Lock of the First Half Season - A's Angels Under
CFL Lock Of Our Generation - British Columbia

[spook]

Re: 7-10-10

Joe Wiz

Big Information Play - Florida

[spook]

Re: 7-10-10

SPORTS WAGERS

COLORADO –1½ +1.35 over San Diego

The Padres bubble hasn’t completely burst yet but they’re starting to lose more games and with a bunch of guys on the rack, its chances of gaining some steam are not good. San Diego has lost three of its last four games, they’ve lost six of 11 with three of those wins coming against the Astros. Wade LeBlanc (32 BPV, 3-3-2-5-3 PQS) has an 81% strand-rate to thank for his 3.10 ERA (see the bottom of this page for an explanation of BPV and PQS). LeBlanc is one of those guys that has hugely benefitted from pitching at home but his road numbers tell a different story, In fact, his road ERA is 4.85, which is 2½-runs higher than his home ERA (2.36). His BAA on the road is .300 and now he’ll pitch in a park that always exposes average pitchers and that’s precisely what LeBlanc is. Jason Hammel (93 BPV, 5-3-0-4-4 PQS) has quality starts in six of his last seven starts (the lone exception being against the Red Sox). He is 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA at Coors Field this year, and has a 55/14 K/BB over his last ten starts. Hammel gets better as the game progresses and in fact, he’s been as close to unhittable after the fifth inning as any pitcher in the league. Hammel is an elite pitcher that has solidified himself as a groundball pitcher and in this park he has a huge advantage over LeBlanc. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.35 (Risking 2 units).

Cincinnati +2.13 over PHILADELPHIA

Roy Halliday needs no introduction. The guy has been the major’s toughest pitcher over the last decade and over that stretch he’s missed very few starts. This season he has barely missed a beat and ranks fifth in the NL with a 2.33 ERA, first in complete games with seven, eighth in strikeouts with 118 and first in innings pitched with 139. Thing is, those 139 IP might not be such a good thing. Halliday is coming of a complete game win in the scorching heat over Atlanta this past Monday. He’s also lost seven games this year and that ranks 12th in the NL. It should be noted that Halliday’s fly-ball rate is way up and that he’s given up eight homers in his last five starts after allowing three in his first 13. In a recent game vs the Yanks he allowed 14 fly-ball outs to just seven GB outs. He faced the Reds two starts ago in Cincinnati and allowed 13 hits in eight frames and he allowed 19 fly-outs to just eight GB outs. These are all signs of fatigue and for a guy pitching in a tough park that is 33 years old, has logged more innings than anyone in the game, not to mention close to 2200 career innings, this is a ton of lumber to lay against the NL’s top ranked offense. Travis Wood has very decent numbers and would have much-better numbers over his first two major league starts were it not for his bullpen, who have allowed multiple inherited runners to score in both starts. In those two starts Wood has a BAA of .186 although it did come vs the Mets at Citi Field and against the Cubbies at Wrigley. Still, Wood is a lefty and the Phillies have just two wins in nine attempts vs southpaws at home and they’ve ever faced Wood. Overlay. Play: Cincinnati +2.13 (Risking 2 units).


Uruguay +3.58 over Germany

Uruguay +2.07 (to finish 3rd) over Germany

Germany deviated from what was working for them in this World Cup and tried to revert back to good old German defending against Spain in their semifinal match. The whole world knew that Spain would control possession but the German counter-attack was non-existent. The Spaniards dominated shots on target 5-2 and overall shots 12-3. The Germans were literally playing with fire and it was no surprise when Carles Puyol netted a header off a corner-kick in the 73rd minute to propel "La Furia Roja" to a 1-0 victory. Many Deutschland supporters will always be left wondering if the outcome would have been any different if midfielder Thomas Mueller had have not been suspended for the match. Their stagnant attack certainly could have used his energetic runs and electrifying finishes. Uruguay had to play their semifinal match against Holland without two of its key components. Jorge Fucile and Luis Suarez were both ineligible to play due to suspension. Diego Forlan tried to do it all himself, scoring a remarkable goal in the first half, but it was very evident that he was missing the speed and finish of Suarez. Uruguay was flawless in their defending during the group stage, sharing an auspicious honor with Portugal as the only two teams to keep clean sheets. However, their defending has not been as strong during the knockout stages as they have given up five goals in their last three matches. The Germans are the highest scoring team in the entire tournament with 13 goals and have been equally strong on defense, surrendering just three goals. The 3rd place game at the World Cup is notorious for being a wide-open affair, with most players losing interest after the devastation of being eliminated in the semifinals. Germany won this match in the 2006 tournament but that was on their home soil and there are serious doubts concerning their motivation for this particular contest. Lack of motivation might not be the only problem for the Germans in this match, as they also have to deal with both a key injury and a flu-bug. Miroslav Klose is just one goal away from tying Ronaldo as the all-time leading scorer in World Cup history. A goal would also give him a shot at the 'Golden Boot' award in this World Cup but he will be a game-time decision with a back injury that he suffered in the semifinal match against Spain. On Friday it was also announced that a flu-bug had fiercely hit the German squad. Defender Philipp Lahm and Striker Lukas Podolski are the two worst affected players and the loss of either or both would be a huge blow to German hopes for this match. The worst affected by the virus is actually Germany's bench boss Joachim Low and it has been stated his absence from the match is a strong possibility. Oliver Bierhoff has also hinted that many of the German substitutes might get the opportunity to play and this is probably why they have not released their starting 11 for the match. Uruguay has revealed their starters for the match and it certainly looks like they are taking it seriously. While Germany is already building in their excuses, the Uruguayans are acting and talking like they still have a lot to play for. Luis Suarez will surely be extra motivated for this match, after missing the semifinal, and he has stated that his team will play until the death to win this match. It's evident that winning this match would end the tournament on a high note for Uruguay, while it might just rub more salt in the wound for Germany. Uruguay was never supposed to go this deep in the tournament and a 3rd place finish certainly means more to them, their soccer program and their country. This looks like a perfect to spot to take massive value on what still appears to be a very hungry Uruguayan squad. If the flu and injury bugs in the German camp are half as bad as indicated, this match will still be a dog fight and it only makes sense to take over 3-1 on Uruguay. Play: Uruguay +3.58 (Risking 1 unit) Play Uruguay +2.07 to finish 3rd (Risking 1 unit).


HAMILTON –2 over Calgary

The stars have aligned nicely for this early season matchup as the Stampeders enter this one off a win while the Ti-Cats took their lumps in Winnipeg. That offers some great value on the home team as we expect a strong effort here against a suspect visitor. While Calgary moved the ball efficiently against the woeful Argonauts, they lacked the precision and effectiveness to come up with major scores. You can get away with that against Toronto's inept offense but a similar effort will not work here. The Tiger-Cats disposed of these Stamps on this field last year by a 24-17 count and that was before the Tabbies began to gel as a unit. A trip to Calgary two weeks later resulted in a 15-14 squeaker for the host. Calgary has a revenge-motivated home date with the Roughriders on deck, after Saskatchewan knocked the Stampeders off in Western Finals last year. A short price in an ideal situation has us comfortably backing the hosts here. Play: Hamilton –2 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).


B.C. LIONS –2 over Saskatchewan

Tough game in that it’s difficult to play either one of these teams. The Roughriders are coming off that tremendously grueling and emotional win over the Alouettes and that’s makes this one a very tough act to follow. They may respond well or they may suffer a serious letdown. What is apparent, however, is that the Roughriders have the ability to score big points and that could pose a problem here for the Lions. As for the B.C., they’ll open up in a new stadium and it’s a crapshoot as to how they’ll respond. Furthermore, Casey Printers did not look that good in week one against a rather soft Eskimo defense. Having said that, the Lions defense did a terrific job against Ricky Ray and that’s significant. Really, what we have here is more question marks than answers. We simply can’t trust the Roughies to come out with the same intensity as they did against Montreal last week. It was only week one but they exerted a ton of energy in coming back from 21-down and celebrated like they won the Grey Cup. The Lions weren’t the greatest show last week but they were methodical, efficient and very good defensively and thus, we’ll go with that. Play: B.C. Lions –2 (No wagers).

[spook]

Re: 7-10-10

Stephen Nover

Saturday's Play
My 35 Dime Release is on the Astros with both pitchers listed. Note that the scheduled pitchers must start in this game or else the selection will be null and void. As this play is released the Astros are -130.

[spook]

Re: 7-10-10

Free Silver Key Pick for Saturday ML Baseball

Florida Robertson -L +1.5 Runs, -150 over ARIZONA (8:10 et)

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Re: 7-10-10

jeff benton saturday

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1-1 yesterday for PLUS 15 dimes or $190...overall, 73-87-3 minus 250 dimes.

current winning streak is 2.

Saturday's Action 30 DIME selection on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX on the run line (-1½ runs) over the Royals in the midale game of a series between A.L. Central rivals. Chicago is a slight underdog on the run line of about +105. As with all run-line releaeses, both starting pitchers are listed, so Gavin Floyd and Brian Bannister must start or this play is VOID!

10 DIME selection on the OAKLAND A’S over the Angels in the middle game of a series between A.L. West rivals. The A’s are a solid -125 favorite both here in Vegas and offshore. Note that you must list both Ben Sheets and Scott Kazmir as the staroing pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!


White Sox (-1½ runs)

The numbers suggest Brian Bannister (7-6 record) has had a better season than Gavin Floyd (4-7). In this case, the numbers are lying.

Since getting lit up in a 9-5 loss to Texas on June 2 (six runs allowed in 2 2/3 innings), Floyd has pitched as well as anyone in baseball. In six subsaquent starts, he has given up just six earned runs and 27 hits in 42 2/3 innings (1.27 ERA). That includes three dominating performances at home (two runs allowed in 20 innings), plus a 4-3 win at Kansas City on June 29 (two earned runs allowed in 6 2/3 innings as he outpitched Bannister). And after going 3-10 in Floyd’s first 13 starts of the season, Chicago is 4-0 in his last four trips to the mound, including Monday’s 9-2 home rout of the Angels.

Then again, the White Sox have been crushing opponents no matter who is on the mound. With Friday’s 8-2 rout of Kansas City, they’ve won 23 of their last 28 overall, including the last six in a row, and they’re also 12-1 in their last 13 home games. And 16 of Chicago’s last 23 wins have been by more than one run.

As for Bannister, his 7-6 record is a big aberration. He’s got a 5.44 ERA overall, a 6.99 ERA on the road and a 7.45 ERA in night games. Over his last four starts, Bannister has given up 24 runs (22 earned) in 24 innings – and that includes a 1-0 road win at Washington on June 23! The only time Bannister has had consistent success this season is when he pitches in day games (4-0, 2.37 ERA). Well, this contest starts at 7 p.m. Central time.

Also, with the 4-3 home loss to Floyd last week, Bannister is now 4-6 with a 7.97 ERA in 15 career starts against the White Sox, including 1-2 with a 9.55 ERA in six games at U.S. Cellular Field. The Royals’ record the last two-plus seaseons when Bannister faces Chicago: 3-7, including 1-3 in the Windy City.

What’s more, Kansas City has now dropped 43 of its last 60 games at U.S. Cellular Field, with the last five defeats being by margins of 9-2, 5-1, 13-3, 4-2 and 8-2. In fact, eight of Chicago’s last 11 wins over the Royals (home and road) have covered the run line.


A’s

More than anything, this is a play against the Angels’ Scott Kazmir. Yes, Kazmir has great career numbers against the A’s, including two wins in two strong starts (one run, eight hits in 11 1/3 innings) since joining the Angels last year. However, the veteran left-hander is in a serious funk right now, losing three straight starts while posting an ugly 10.43 ERA (17 runs allowed in 14 2/3 innings). And after Monday’s 9-2 loss at the White Sox – he gave up seven runs in 6 1/3 innings – Kazmir is now 5-4 with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP on the road and 4-8 with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in night games.

As for Oakland’s Ben Sheets, he’s pitched much better than his 3-8 record. He’s held 12 of 18 opponents to three earned runs and has given up more than four earned runs just twice all season (in back-to-back road starts against the Rays and Blue Jays). And he’s been a big-time workhorse, going at least six innings in 15 of his 18 starts, including the last 12 in a row. Sheets has also been very good at the Oakland Coliseum (3-3, 3.25 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) as opposed to on the road (0-5, 6.66 ERA, 1.68 WHIP).

The A’s blew last night’s series opener to the Angels and have now dropped four straight games (all at home). However, they’ve lost five in a row just once all season (and all five of those defeats were on the road. Besides, it’s not like the Angels are playing much better, as they’re 3-7 in their last 10 overall and 1-5 in their last six on the road.

[spook]

Re: 7-10-10

Jr. O'Donnell (RedZone Sports) free internet play:

LA Angels
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