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Matchup: Minnesota at Detroit
Time: 1:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) PAVANO, C vs. (L) OLIVER, A
Play: Minnesota (ML -115) Solid Gold Play
The Twins are definitely limping into the break, and they're having to wind thing up with another game against the surging Tigers. Detroit is playing ridiculous ball at home, so this is no cinch. But I have to believe the Twins are looking at this as a very important game, and Carl Pavano has actually been their money pitcher so far this season. On the flip side, rookie Andy Oliver looks like a good prospect but the Motown lefty has been a little overmatched so far and I like the Twins to get to him today. Road favorites trying to avoid getting swept in a three-game set are a very profitable 15-9 for the season, and I'm going to back that trend and lay the moderate price with the Twins.
Matchup: L.A. Angels at Oakland
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) WEAVER, J vs. (R) CAHILL, T
Play: Under (7 -110)
All the ingredients for a dynamite pitching duel are in place as the Angels close their series with the A's. As noted on several prior occasions, Jered Weaver is a very dominant day game pitcher, and his 2.01 ERA this year under the sun is evidence the trend is continuing. Trevor Cahill has been lights out in daytime games as well, fashioning a brilliant 1.95 ERA, and the hot Oakland righty has a great chance to contain a Halos lineup that presently has some serious holes. Umpire Tony Randazzo is pretty neutral, so no real concern with him. There's always a little worry about Unders when the Angels bullpen gets involved, but I expect both starters to be in control today, so even at low number, playing the Angels and A's to stay Under is the selection for me.
Game: Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies Jul 11 2010 1:35PM
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
Reason: The Phillies have won three straight and are attempting a four-game sweep of the Reds here. Four out of the last five Phillies’ games have went to extra frames. We’ll grab the big price in this spot.
In Cole Hamels’ last start, the Phillies lost 6-3 as a 135 favorite in extra innings. Hamels had a quality start, but the Phillies offense did score enough to reward him. This has not been a good situation for the Phillies. In fact, Philadelphia is 0-7 when Cole Hamels starts as a favorite after losing as a home favorite in his last start. His last four starts in this spot were all non-quality starts and he was a 140+ favorite in each.
Also, Philadelphia is 0-6 when Cole Hamels starts as a favorite and he is off a quality start in which they lost and 0-8 as a favorite of less than 200 in the afternoon. Yikes.
The Reds are a very nice 9-1 as a DOG of less than 200 in the last game of a series while the Phillies are a dismal 0-5 as a 160+ favorite in the last game of a home series. The lone blemish in the Reds’ 9-1 record mentioned above came when they took a 9-3 lead into the bottom of the ninth against the Braves, but lost 10-9.
The Phillies have lost Hamels’ last four starts and they have trouble turning things around for a starter. In fact, the Phillies are 0-7 as a 140+ favorite when they lost their starter’s last two starts, with the last five coming from THIS season.
Finally, the Phillies are 0-7 as a favorite of at least 150 after an extra inning win in which they allowed fewer than six runs.
Maloney was the victim of a 3-0 shutout in his last start vs Johan Santana in New York. The Reds “pick-up” their starter in this spot, as they are a perfect 5-0 as a road dog of more than 150 when they scored two or fewer runs in their starter’s last start. The opposing starters in these five games were: Lilly, Lincecum, Cain, Lowe and Penny. We like the Reds’ chances here.
It all comes down to this! These two teams are evenly matched, but the key to this game will is winning the time of possession category. Look for Spain to strike first and control the clock once they get ahead. This should be a great World Cup final with the Spanish taking home the glory. Take Spain and the Under.
Yesterday we noted the major difference in form between these teams in cashing an easy ticket behind the Tigers, a game in which they jumped to a 2-0 lead in the first inning and never trailed, and through the first two games of this series they have doubled the Twins in runs despite having six fewer outs to work with. That makes this price range impossible to pass up, as a Detroit team on a 32-12 surge at home heading to the All Star break faces a patchwork Minnesota lineup at a time in which Carl Pavano may also be starting to correct.
It is one thing to have Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer on the sidelines for the Twins, but another matter entirely when that forces Nick Punto and Drew Butera into the starting lineup. It is a big drop both offensively and defensively, and makes life much easier for Detroit rookie Andrew Oliver, who had a rocky outing vs. Baltimore on Monday that helps to set up this price point, but brings much better stuff than that to the table. And while closer Jose Valverde had worked each of the first two games in this series, he has multiple days off prior to that, and should not be impacted.
Meanwhile Pavano has had a solid 9-6/3.58 run to this point, relying on pinpoint control to overcome the fact that he is not able to miss many bats (only 65 K’s in 118 IP), but he was rocked for three home runs in an ugly showing at Toronto in his last outing, a game in which he did not get tagged for a loss because the offense bailed him out, and not having posted an ERA of less than 4.77 since coming to the A.L., his best work for 2010 may be behind him. With Nick Blackburn and Francisco Liriano only lasting a combined 5.2 innings the past two days the Minnesota bullpen is also in a precarious setting, and that makes this value too much to pass up.
Detroit is on fire at home, owning a 17-2 mark in their last 19 played in their own backyard. They now stand at 32-12 for the season when playing at home. The Twins are really struggling right now and stand in at 5-13 over their last 18 games. The pitching staff is mired in a deep slump as they have now gone seven straight games allowing 6 runs or more, so the bullpen is depleted as well. Carl Pavano is already approaching more innings than he has thrown since 2004, and I look for him to hit the wall. The Twins are struggling on the road vs. left-hand pitching at 15-38 in their last 53, while the Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 at home vs. a righthander. Detroit gets this one.
Take Over 7.5 Chicago Cubs at L.A. Dodgers (8 p.m., Sunday, July 11)
Note: This is our Total of the Week. It's a little lighter than normal, but I do love the spot.
Take Under 8.5 San Francisco at Washington (1:30 p.m., Sunday, July 11)
Take Over 10.5 Florida at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, July 11)
Take Under 7.0 L.A. Angels at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, July 11)
Take 'Under' 9.5 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (1 p.m., Sunday, July 11)
Take Over 9.0 Cincinnati at Philadelphia (1:30 p.m., Sunday, July 11)
Take Under 9.0 San Diego at Colorado (3 p.m., Sunday, July 11)
Take Under 8.0 N.Y. Yankees at Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, July 11)
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