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Lenny Del Genio | MLB Money Line Sun, 07/11/10 - 8:05 PM
triple-dime bet 966 LOS (-140) Bodog vs 965 CHC
Analysis:
Play on LA Dodgers at 8:05 EST – the Cubs and Dodgers play the final game of this four game series tonight in LA. The Cubs won the first two games of this series, but last night the Dodgers took the win 7-3. Tonight, good pitching matchup on ESPN with Silva opposing Padilla. Silva has been rock solid all season with a 2.96 ERA and 11-5 team start record. However, tonight he’s going to get out pitched by the LA righty Padilla. He pitched four games to start the season, but was injured and had to take two months off. He made his first start back in Fenway Park and the Red Sox roughed him up for four earned runs in only 5 1/3 innings of work. However, since that one start he’s been very tough in three outings posting a 2.18 ERA and remarkable 0.822 WHIP. In 20 2/3 innings of work he’s whiffed 21 opposing batters. As we noted the Cubs Padilla has a very strong ERA on the season, however the Dodgers have performed very well this season when facing an opposing pitcher with a 3.50 or better ERA posting a 12-4 record. The Cubs don’t get many extra base hits and LA’s Padilla is tough against teams that average 2.75 or less extra base hits per game posting a 21-9 team start record. Good Luck. Vegas Icon Pick on LA Dodgers!
triple-dime bet 969 BOS / 970 TOR Under 9.5 Sportbet
Analysis: I'm playing on Boston and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series both finished well above the total. This afternoon's finale has the highest O/U line of the three games. Yet, I expect it to be the lowest-scoring of the bunch.
Litsch wasn't very good last time out. He was very sharp in his previous start though (2 runs on 4 hits through 6 complete innings) and he's always fared well vs. the Red Sox. In six starts vs. Boston, he's gone 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA. He allowed three earned runs or less in five of those six starts, including two or less in four of them. In three home starts vs. Boston, he's allowed three earned runs in 17 2/3 innings. That translates to a 1.53 ERA.
Like Litsch, Matsuzaka has enjoyed plenty of success vs. today's opponent. Indeed, he's 5-1 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.091 WHIP vs. the Jays. He faced them once this season and allowed just three hits and one run through seven innings. In that game, he had nine K's with zero walks. The final score was 6-1. That was at Boston. In his most recent start here at Toronto, he allowed just two hits through seven shutout innings, a 3-0 Boston victory. Overall, he's got a microscopic 0.64 ERA his last two vs. the Jays and a 2.70 ERA his last three starts, here at Toronto.
The Red Sox have seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last nine times that they were listed as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Given the past success of both starters against today's opponent, I expect those numbers to improve here. *10
Favoring: NY YANKEES on the money line.
Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SEATTLE) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts
(65-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.3%,
The situation's record this season is: (12-5
These all have same rating
Favoring: SEATTLE on the run line.
Play Against - Road favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+115 or higher) (NY YANKEES) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games, in July games
(37-13 since 1997.) (74.0%,
The situation's record this season is: (0-0
Favoring: SEATTLE on the run line.
Play On - Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 or higher) (SEATTLE) - with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start
(32-11 since 1997.) (74.4%,The situation's record this season is: (2-1
Favoring: CLEVELAND on the money line.
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TAMPA BAY) - after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing
(39-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (59.1%, )
The situation's record this season is: (3-6
Favoring: TORONTO on the run line.
Play On - Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (TORONTO) - after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts
(74-25 since 1997.) (74.7%,
The situation's record this season is: (4-2 ).
Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (KANSAS CITY) - poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after 2 straight losses by 4 runs or more
(52-30 since 1997.) (63.4%, +42 units. )
The situation's record this season is: (2-4
Favoring: OAKLAND on the run line.
Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (OAKLAND) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
(79-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.4%, )
The situation's record this season is: (8-5
Favoring: TORONTO on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (TORONTO) - after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, with a tired bullpen - after 2 straight games throwing 5+ innings
(45-19 since 1997.) (70.3%, +33.5 units.
The situation's record this season is: (0-0
Favoring: SEATTLE on the money line.
Play On - Home teams (SEATTLE) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings
(110-54 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.1%, )
The situation's record this season is: (17-12
Favoring: CLEVELAND on the money line.
Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TAMPA BAY) - after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing
(33-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (58.9%,
The situation's record this season is: (1-6 -
Play On - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (LA ANGELS) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games
(78-28 since 1997.) (73.6%,
The situation's record this season is:.4-3
Favoring: DETROIT on the money line.
Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, playing on Sunday
(61-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.5%, )
The situation's record this season is: (11-2
Favoring: OAKLAND on the money line.
Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (LA ANGELS) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, playing on Sunday
(61-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.5%, +
The situation's record this season is: (11-2
Favoring: TORONTO on the money line.
Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (BOSTON) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, playing on Sunday
(61-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.5%, )
The situation's record this season is: (11-2 +
.Favoring: CLEVELAND on the money line.
Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (TAMPA BAY) - after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing
(45-39 since 1997.) (53.6%, )
The situation's record this season is: (1-2
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