7-16-10

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

Fox Sheets

Friday, 07/16/2010 (979) SEATTLE vs. (980) LA ANGELS
Favoring: SEATTLE on the run line.Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (SEATTLE) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
(45-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.8%, +38 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (8-0 +8 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (979) SEATTLE vs. (980) LA ANGELS
Favoring: SEATTLE on the run line.Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (SEATTLE) - with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
(47-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.4%, +38.5 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0 +4 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (971) TAMPA BAY vs. (972) NY YANKEES
Favoring: NY YANKEES on the money line.Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (TAMPA BAY) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts
(66-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.4%, +50.8 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (13-5 +2.1 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (979) SEATTLE vs. (980) LA ANGELS
Favoring: SEATTLE on the run line.Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to +165) (SEATTLE) - with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
(50-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (87.7%, +39.1 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +3 units).


Friday, 07/16/2010 (963) ARIZONA vs. (964) SAN DIEGO
Favoring: ARIZONA on the run line.Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (ARIZONA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL
(41-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.8%, +30.9 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +3.7 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (971) TAMPA BAY vs. (972) NY YANKEES
Favoring: NY YANKEES on the money line.Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (TAMPA BAY) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts
(54-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.5%, +42.6 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-3 +2 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (955) COLORADO vs. (956) CINCINNATI
Favoring: CINCINNATI on the run line.Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts
(67-34 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.3%, +48 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (13-8 +7.3 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (979) SEATTLE vs. (980) LA ANGELS
Favoring: SEATTLE on the money line.Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (SEATTLE) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
(36-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.5%, +30.1 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2 +6 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (957) WASHINGTON vs. (958) FLORIDA
Favoring: FLORIDA on the run line.Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (FLORIDA) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts
(82-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.1%, +53.7 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (13-8 +6.5 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (979) SEATTLE vs. (980) LA ANGELS
Favoring: SEATTLE on the money line.Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (SEATTLE) - with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
(38-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.1%, +30.6 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 +0.5 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (979) SEATTLE vs. (980) LA ANGELS
Favoring: SEATTLE on the run line.Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to +165) (SEATTLE) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
(46-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.2%, +33.8 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (8-3 +4.3 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (979) SEATTLE vs. (980) LA ANGELS
Favoring: LA ANGELS on the run line.Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SEATTLE) - poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after 2 straight losses by 4 runs or more
(52-30 since 1997.) (63.4%, +42 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-4 -2 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (967) DETROIT vs. (968) CLEVELAND
Favoring: CLEVELAND on the money line.Play On - Any team (CLEVELAND) - poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), after 2 straight games with no home runs
(64-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.4%, +42.8 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (17-8 +11.9 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (969) TORONTO vs. (970) BALTIMORE
Favoring: BALTIMORE on the money line.Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (BALTIMORE) - after a win, terrible team, winning 38% or less of their games on the season
(56-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (58.9%, +45.9 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (11-6 +10.3 units).

Friday, 07/16/2010 (969) TORONTO vs. (970) BALTIMORE
Favoring: BALTIMORE on the run line.Play On - Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-130 to +110) (BALTIMORE) - after 4 or more consecutive road games, playing on Friday
(37-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.4%, +27 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2 +0.7 units).

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

PHIL MAXWELL

TOP PLAY
KC ROYALS -145 over Oakland
Greinke -vs- Gonzalez

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

POWERPLAYWINS
PLAY OF THE DAY

Minnesota Twins -138 ML
Pitcher: Liriano

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

WIN OR LOSE SPORTS BETTING


Major League Baseball
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
951 PHIL ML +113 $9
953 HOU ML -103 $9
956 CIN ML -122 $10
960 ATL ML -178 $14
961 LAD ML +120 $5
964 SD ML -109 $14
967 DET ML -143 $17
969 TOR ML -162 $8
972 NYY ML -190 $15
972 NYY -1.5 +105 $7
973 TEX ML -125 $14
977 CWS ML +124 $5

WNBA
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager

651 Ind / Atl OV 161.5 -109 $9
654 SA -9 -107 $8
656 LA / Chi UN 149 -110 $8


AFL
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
354 ARIZ -23 -110 $6

CFL
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
413 WIN +3.5 -108 $8
415 Mon / BC OV 54 -108 $10
416 BC +5.5 -108 $5
416 BC ML +190 $5


PICK 4
956 CIN UN 9 -120 4.7 units
961 LAD OV 7.5 -120 7.2 units
968 CLEV UN 9 -120 5.9 units
973 TX OV 9.5 -115 7.9 units

[BKK]

Re: 7-16-10

Football Jesus Text :
Under in whitesox/ Twins

thanks for the post BKK. but go figure,i just tailed beattheodds and played over 8

sorry, it was late..but FBJ's texts are 10-2 in July..im on it

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

DWAYNE BRYANT

MLB ML - Friday, Jul 16 2010 10:05PM
ML 980 ANA (-131) SportBet vs 979 SEA single-dime bet

Analysis: Hernandez & Weaver MUST START
Yes, Felix is a phenomenal pitcher and he's been on quite a tear, but these Angels just seem to have his number. Hernandez is 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA in 18 starts versus Los Angeles, and the M's have lost 6 of Felix's last 8 starts against the Angels. Hernandez's worst start of the season came against the Angels. He surrendered 8 runs in 3 1/3 innings of an 8-0 defeat on May 7th in Seattle.
Many will point out Jered Weaver's last two starts, in which he allowed 9 runs in 12 1/3 innings, and say that he's in a funk. I disagree. I say, "Throw out those last two starts because they were ROAD starts." Not only that, but his K/BB ratio was still 12/1 in those two games, so you know he's still in good form. It's just that Weaver is a different pitcher at Angel Stadium. In 11 road starts, Weaver owns a 4.37 ERA, .246 BAA, and .417 opponents slugging percentage. But in his 8 home starts (ALL Quality Starts), he sports a 1.70 ERA, .194 BAA, and .291 opponents slugging percentage.
Then we look at the offenses. On the road, Seattle is batting .233 and scoring 3.5 runs per game against righties. At home, the Angels are hitting .256 and scoring 4.7 runs per game against righties. That's a nice 1.2 runs per game edge for LA.
Just in case they're needed for an inning or two: Seattle's pen owns an 8.27 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, and .318 BAA in their last five outings. The Angels pen has been much more respectable in their last five games, sporting a 2.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and .265 BAA. Home/road bullpen splits also favor the Angels, who own a 4.02 ERA and .254 BAA at home. Seattle's pen sports a 5.24 ERA and .284 BAA on the road.
Bottom line: We have the better bullpen (in better current form as well) and the better offensive team. The starting pitching edge could go either way. Some would call it even. Some would favor Felix. I favor Weaver based on his home numbers. But even if Felix matches Weaver pitch for pitch, we have the better offensive team and bullpen behind u s. Take the Angels/Weaver over Seattle/Hernandez

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

gill alexander | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/16/10 - 7:10 PM

triple-dime bet 973 TEX (-125) Sportbet vs 974 BOS
Analysis: Lewis has quality starts in 7 of his last 9 outings. He has a 1.59ERA in winning his last 2 road starts. But much like last night's key when we successfully backed Tommy Hunter v Boston, Lewis is another pitcher who holds right-handed batters to an average below the Mendoza line. Righties are hitting just .198 v Lewis this season and, as covered with our Best Bet yesterday, with Martinez, Varitek, Hermida, and Ellsbury all out of the lineup, the Sox are forced to field a decidedly more right-handed hitting lineup. Pedroia's absence is obviously an addiitonal downgrade, as is the possible absence of Beltre again. Doubront has only made 2 sta€rts at the big league level, so we admittedly don't have much to work with. However, there are two things that stick out for me. One, he hasn't faced as potent a lineup as he'll see tonight, and two, while I can't trust any conventional stats after such hlimited action, it is worth noting that his xFIP is 6.17. While that certainly can't be considered the gospel with so few innings, let's just say that when coupled with the notion of the Rangers lineup stepping up against him, I smell value on the Rangers for the second straight night at Fenway.

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

Marc Lawrence | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/16/10 - 10:15 PM

triple-dime bet 965 NYM (+110) BetUS vs 966 SFG
Analysis: Play On: NY Mets w/Niese vs Zito (Game 965)
Note: The Mets meet the Giants in Game Two of this four-game series tonight in San Francisco whe~n Jonathn Neise opposes Barry Zito at AT&T Park. Niese enters tonight's contest with wins in six of his last seven team starts. He's also in great KW form with four walks and 21 strikeouts in his last three games. With sporting a 6.75 ERA in his last four starts and also 0-3 in his last three starts in this series and the Giants just 3-9 as a host in this series, look for Niese to remain undefeated (2-0 1.29 ERA) in his career against San Francisco this evening. We recommend a 3-unit play on the MY Mets.

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

JR ODonnell | MLB Total Fri, 07/16/10 - 7:10 PM

triple-dime bet 957 WAS / 958 FLA Under 7 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
Washington Nationals Under 7- 105 game at 7

Let's roll out the sharp information tonight as the sharps will back the Strasburg/Nolasco show in Florida tonight. The Nationals S. Strasburg has been light's out and the Nationals Strasburg 3-2, 2.32 ERA is on fire! The Marlins Nolasco has also been on fire as he has been 6-0 and a terrific 2.98 vs the Nationals. The Marlins have not been hitting the ball well lately and the Marlins are back at home for the first time in a month. These 2 teams have gone 5-2 the last 7 to the under and the Marlins are 4-1 Under in last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter let's roll out the sharp info as we have the power ratings at 5.6 runs. play the under

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

Tony George | MLB Total Fri, 07/16/10 - 7:10 PM

dime bet 955 COL / 956 CIN Under 9 BetUS
Analysis:


Under 9 Reds / Rockies

Arroyo and Hammel on the hill tonight for these teams, BOTH in excellent form on the mound and Arroyo with an ERA under 3 in his last 3 starts and Hammel at 3.26, and both pitchers with great WHIP numbers as well. 6 out of the last 7 in this series have went under, and I like a pitching duel in Cincy tonight big time. Yes Colorado hot at the plate in their last 10 games, BUT all their last 10 games have been at home against weaker pitchers overall. The line is off here, I say 7 runs max, and I am all over the under in this one. Should be a tight game.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER. Bonus Play, Detroit -140 for a half unit over the Tribe.

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

Stan Sharp | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/16/10 - 7:05 PM

double-dime bet 969 TOR (-155) Bodog vs 970 BAL
Analysis: Stan is Betting TORONTO today. Stan notes Baltimore should come out flat following the break after their Big Sweep of Texas in Texas. Ricky Romero had 2 rough starts before the break but those 2 games were against Boston and The Yankees 2 very potent offenses. Today he faces Baltimore who struggles against left-handers. Also note that Baltimore is just 4-21 following giving up 3 runs or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 years. Toronto wins this easy and this this line should be much higher but we are getting line value because of Baltimore's sweep of Texas. TAKE TORONTO as STAN'S 2* VEGAS WISE GUY GAME

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

GoodFella | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/16/10 - 10:05 PM

double-dime bet 980 ANA (-132) Bodog vs 979 SEA
Analysis:
BOTH Weaver and Hernandez MUST START

(2*) Double Star Play

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

Mike Hook | MLB Total Fri, 07/16/10 - 10:05 PM

triple-dime bet 963 ARI / 964 SDP Over 6.5 Sportbet
Analysis: The OVER 6.5 RUNS between the San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks is the TRIPLE STAR Play of the Day!

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

Greg Shaker | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/16/10 - 8:15 PM

triple-dime bet 962 STL (-128) Sportbet vs 961 LOS
Analysis: MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals - Cardinals (Billingsley/Garcia)(Best Bet) -128 | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 7/16/2010
Note: While I am not too thrilled about the high betting line. My MLB Model has the hometeam winning here by a substantial margin of 61.7% and while I do not always agree with it, I must this time. The Cardinal Pitcher has been a huge surprise this year for his team and while he suffered from pre-allstar break weariness, the rest he has gotten should fix that. This guy has been masterful at Busch Stadium with 7 starts and an ERA of a very low 1.20. The best thing about this guy is that he does not allow dingers and that is important when facing a good hitting squad like LAD. Just 4 Homers in 100 innings of work is almost unheard of and that is what he has done. LAD has never liked playing in St Louis and their record proves that with just 4 wins in 22 tries. St Louis will face a good one in Chad Billingley but his career stats are not that good when throwing at St Louis and a lot of Cardinal Hitters have had great success against the righthander. The Cardinals will be in their best hitting posture facing the rightly as well and by far their best one here at Busch. St Louis has suffered some setbacks recently but mostly on the road and they are tough to beat at this park. These teams are very similar in that respect with both possessing terrific homefield advantage and both not up to snuff traveling. Handicapping games does not always require Rocket Science Stuff and this is in that category. therefore I will cut these thoughts short and play this one harder than usual.

[spook]

Re: 7-16-10

Greg Shaker | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/16/10 - 7:10 PM

dime bet 974 BOS (+118) Sportbet vs 973 TEX
Analysis: MLB: Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox - RedSox (Lewis/Doubront) +118 | Unit Value: 1
Game Date: 7/16/2010
Note: This line can be had as low as +115 and as high as +120. I am going to be brief here with this play. If picking pitchers were the only thing we had to do to win bets, this sport would be pretty damn easy. If we did that we would certainly play the Rangers. Lewis has been very good this year but he has been much more hittable of late and the Rangers have cooled down a lot since their Torrid Pace run they had. They did get a jumpstart last night but tonight they face a lefty and these Southpaws have given them some trouble this year. They are clearly in their worst hitting posture tonight and Boston is clearly in their best winning posture playing here at Fenway where they have been dominent for a very long time. It is almost amazing that they could be a Dog ever at this park and whe…n they are, they are certainly worth a look. The Bullpen is starting to come around for Boston and that might be the key tonight with the weather pattern setting up for what might be a high scoring affair. The fact is, I am still looking at the OVER as a possible play as well. The Bottom line is that while my MLB Model shows a large advantage toward Texas, my own computer mind does not. Starting throwers are simply not going to be as important as other factors tonight and those other factors tell me that Boston here at Fenway, with the success they have had, and the way they have hit righthanded pitching, gives us a great shot at a nice dog winner. And yes, I do know that Boston has some injuries. Public betting is loving Texas for this game and every game they are playing right now and that means we have a great number for sure.