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The Houston Astros have struggled on the road and when Bud Norris takes the mound, they have been outscored by over 2 runs a game in all of his starts, posting just two wins in his eight starts for the season. Ross Olendorf has just one win on the season, but the numbers are deceptive as he has pitched to a fairly decent 4.22 ERA - certainly more deserving of a single win. The Pirates are scoring 2 runs per game in his 13 starts, and sooner or later those numbers even out. The Astros sport just a 21-53 mark in their last 74 posted as a road dog, and just 16-44 on the road vs. a right-hand pitcher.
I'll go with Pittsburgh in this one.
Toronto Blue Jays MINUS 128
It's been an absolutely horrific season for the Baltimore Orioles as they have the worst record in all of baseball. The second half of the season began much like the entire first half went as Baltimore lost again, this time to the Toronto Blue Jays. Brad Bergesen allowed nine hits and four earned runs in six innings of work to take his seventh loss of the year as the Orioles used five pitchers total. Ty Wigginton, Felix Pie, and Julio Lugo all had two hits each but it only led to two runs which wasn't half enough to match Toronto. The loss puts Baltimore 28 games back in the American League East and makes the birds 5-5 in their last 10 games. For game two of the series Baltimore starts Jeremy Guthrie who has had a rough year individually. For the season Guthrie has allowed 112 hits and 59 earned runs while striking out 57 in 111 and a third innings of work. The Toronto Blue Jays got back to .500, a mark they have been better than for the bulk of the season. Aaron Hill hit his 13th home run of the year and had three hits while Fred Lewis had two hits and scored twice to pace the offense. Ricky Romero allowed five hits and two runs while striking out five to get his seventh win of the year. Toronto has gone 5-5 in their last 10 games and have been outscored by their opponents by a total of one run all season. Toronto looks to get over the .500 mark as they start Brandon Morrow who didn't make it out of the fourth inning in his last start. For the season Morrow has allowed 99 hits and 54 earned runs while striking out 111 in 100 innings of work. Baltimore is 4-2 in their last six home games as an underdog, 33-73 in their last 106 overall, 1-5 in Guthrie's last six starts as a home underdog, and 5-3 in their last eight home games. Toronto is 5-10 in their last 15 games overall, 2-4 in their last six against the AL East, 4-1 in Morrow's last five starts as a favorite, and 2-6 in their last eight road games. Toronto has won the last seven meetings in this series.
TAKE TORONTO MINUS HERE.
Pavano is the man tonight as Rz goes over the top and $$$$ tonight with the Minny Twins, fresh off a GOW Under Nats WINNER on the Under Nationals /Fla Marlins last night. The Pavano twins are getting some Vegas respect and Jr O respect respect as they pound the Chi Sox tonight. The 47-43 Minny Twins will be the sharp side tonight as the Chi Sox were exposed last night as 4 errors helped the Twins to a W. Buehrle has a nice record so far and Pavano has been super. C Pavano, 5-0 with a 2.87 ERA in his last seven starts, Let's roll out the Pavano lead Minny Twins tonight as the Sox C. Quentin is questionable and the Twins at -150 or so have some Vegas respect tonight. Let's roll the Twins tonight as a POWER PLAY BOMB
100* Play Atlanta (-210) over Milwaukee
Game starts at 7:10 PM EST
Atlanta has won 11 of the last 14 games when playing on a Saturday and they have also won 3 consecutive games when revenging a home loss of 6 runs or more. Tim Hudson has won 5 of the last 6 games as a favorite of -110 or higher and he is 2-1 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 1.23.
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100* Play Florida (-235) over Washington
Game starts at 7:10 PM EST
Florida pitcher, Josh Johnson has won 9 of the last 11 games when playing in the month of July and he has also won 8 of the last 10 games as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Josh Johnson is 6-0 vs. Washington over his career with an ERA of 3.65 and he is also 9-3 in all starts this season with an ERA of 1.70.
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100* Play LA Angels (-185) over Seattle
Game starts at 9:00 PM EST
Seattle has lost 8 of the last 9 games and they have also lost 23 of the last 30 games vs. division opponents. Ryan Rowland Smith has lost 9 consecutive games as a road underdog of +150 or higher and he is 0-5 in road games this season with an ERA of 7.38.
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Canadian Football
50* Play Saskatchewan (-7) over Edmonton
Game starts at 4:00 PM EST
Saskatchewan has won and covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games in the month of July and they are averaging over 45 points a game on offense this season. Edmonton has lost 12 of the last 18 games as a road underdog and they have also lost 3 consecutive games coming off a two game home stand.
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WNBA Basketball
50* Play Seattle (-4.5) over Minnesota
Game starts at 3:30 PM EST
Seattle has won 17 of their 19 games this season and they have also won 7 of the last 8games vs. Minnesota. Seattle has covered the spread in 10 of the last 11 games vs. division opponents and they have also covered the spread in 6 consecutive road games when the total posted is 150 points or greater.
Both Brandon Morrow and Jeremy Guthrie sport similar ERA’s (4.86 vs. 4.77) and are off of recent struggles. But we see a major gap between the two in terms of the actual stuff in their arsenal right now, and that means a chance to also back the major team gap that exists.
Morrow was on a solid run until going up against the Red Sox and Yankees in his last two outings, but those games were not major sins – he still walked away with 11 K’s vs. three W’s against those lineups, and after facing eight winning teams in this last nine starts, he will relish the chance to step down in class here. Those chances have been rare – of the 126 pitchers that have worked at least 75 innings, his difficulty of batters faced is #8. That is one of two categories that help to keep him under-valued, with the other being that .358 BABIP, that is the second highest on our charts. When we note that he has 111 K’s vs. 99 hits allowed, despite the misfortune of the BABIP rates, he could be an excellent value play in the second half of the season.
We can not say the same about Guthrie. He has not won since May 25th, with the Orioles being out-scored by 27 runs in his eight starts since then, and his stuff has fallen off the table. He could not finish the 5th inning in either of his last two starts, with a 10.38 ERA in those games, and horrific counts of 16 hits and eight W’s vs. only two K’s. For the second straight season his W’s per 9 are up while his K’s per 9 are down, which ultimately leads to a crisis of confidence, especially in the brutal A.L. East – he is on an 0-14/5.67 slide against teams from this division since the All Star break LY, showing what happens when good hitters have seen all that there is from an arsenal that is nothing special.
triple-dime bet 927 TEX / 928 BOS Over 8.5 Sportbet
Analysis:
MLB: Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox - Over 8.5 (Lee/Lackey) -120 | Unit Value: 3 Unit "Game of Week"
Game Date: 7/17/2010
Note: It is important to note that this betting line started at 9 and has drifted to the one I have posted at about 1/2 of all sportsbooks that I monitor. Most all books allow you to buy the 1/2 run and since the one's at 9 are skewing at -120 to -125 right now, I would STRONGLY encourage you to get the same as I just bet. I would even lay -125 if you have to. If you cannot get the number, play it at 9, and still for the full 3 Units. We all know about how good Cliff Lee can be and if this one does not win, it will be because of him. But his numbers are not so spiffy verses Boston and especially here at Fenway which is clearly an OVER venue. It is more so with the weather pattern we have today, winds out mostly to rightfield, which has produced OVER at 9-2 this year including the contest last night. Not only has the RedSox Hurler not been on his game of late, and all this year, his numbers pitching verses the Rangers are THE WORST of all teams he has faced career-wise. In fact, over the last 10 starts verses Texas, his ERA is almost 8 Runs with Ranger bats hitting him at a whopping .356 BA over that time. Texas is loaded with offensive talent and they have been misery facing righties this year. These teams have played 5 times here at Fenway this year and 4 of those have gone over this posted mark. It is not often that we will see a total this low here, especially with the weather pattern and MY MLB Totals Model says that Over 8.5 will be accomplished 62.2% of the time. I have to agree with that summation and even though the RedSox have some injury problems, they should be able to muster some runs to help our cause. There is a lot more that I could say about this opportunity but I do think that I have said enough. I will add that this line might start moving back up late this morning so I would not wait to play it.
7:10 est | 921 DETROIT TIGERS | (R) Porcello | -122 |
We like the matchup here with Rick Porcello returning to Detroit after working on mechanics in AAA Toledo. We look for Porcello to get more on strikes (K) and look sharp in his return. He has never dished out many passes (BB).
Hondo ended up treading water last night when he was hosed by the White Sox, which offset his win with the Reds and left the deficit holding at 1,005 willoughbys.
Tonight, he'll send Cahill to the mound in K.C. and leave it to some Lackey in Boston -- 10 units apiece on the A's and Sawx
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