7-18-10 sunday

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

Jeff Benton

Sunday's Action 25 DIME selection on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS and Vicente Padilla over the Cardinals and Jeff Suppan in a series finale at St. Louis. Los Angeles is a solid favarite of -130 to -145 both here in Vegas and offshore, so be sure to shop around and get the best of the number. Also, you must speceify both Padilla and Suppan as the starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!

10 DIME seleotion the HOUSTON ASTROS and Roy Oswalt over the Pirates and Paul Maholm. Houston is a -140 to -145 favorite in this contest, and again you must specify both starting pitchers. If either Oswalt or Maholm don’t start this game, this play is VOID!


Dodgers

The Dodgers haven’t exactly come out strong to start the second half, losing the first three games of this series by scores of 7-1, 8-4 and 2-0 – and losing Manny Ramirez to yet another injury in the process. But it’s extramely difficult to sweep a four-game series in this sport, so certainly this is a strong percentage play on L.A.

But what pushes things over the top for the Dodgers is this pitching matchup. Vicente Padilla, who has certainly had his problems with consistency over the years, has been magnificent in his last four starts, allowing a total of just five runs, 17 hits and three walks in 28 2/3 innings (1.57 ERA). And although this solid run started with a 2-1 home loss to the Yankees, Padilla has since gone 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA, including a 7-0 beatdown of the Cubs last Sunday (he went a season-high eight innings).

Padilla was L.A.’s most reliaeble pitcher last October and he was on the mound in St. Louis for the clincher of a three-game divisional playoff sweep of the Cardinals, scattering four hits and a walk over seven shutout innings in a 5-1 victory. So in two career starts at Busch Stadium, Padilla has pitched 15 scoreless innings and surrendered just eight hits and one walk.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is Jeff Suppan, who is 0-5 with a 6.55 ERA this season. The veteran right-hander has made seven starts – two with Milwaukee, five with St. Louis – and not once has he made it through six innings (and only once has he lasted longer than five innings). Over his last four starts, he’s 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA.

Finally, the most telling stat that desoribes the difference between these two pitchers is this: Padilla has allowed just 57 baserunners in 55 2/3 innings this season, and he’s held opponents to a .280 on-base percentage. Suppan has allowed 107 baserunners in 55 innings, and opponents are reaching base at a .425 clip!

Enough said! Take the Dodgers to finally get into the post-All Star break win column.


Astros

Two words: Roy Oswalt. The veteran right-hander has flat-out owned the Pirates in his career, going 15-7 with a 2.50 ERA in 28 career games (27 starts) against Pittsburgh. Oswalt’s most recent gem against the Bucs was also his most recent start. On July 8, Oswalt pitched a complete-game one-hitter, walking two and striking out eight in a 2-0 home victory. Throw in a 4-3 win on April 23, and Oswalt is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA against Pittsburgh this season, giving up just two runs and five hits in 16 innings.

Since the start of the 2006 season, Oswalt has faced the Pirates 12 times and delivered 11 quality starts, with Houston going 8-4. In those 11 quality starts, Oswalt has surrendered a grand total of 10 earned runs in 77 2/3 innings (1.16 ERA).

One last point about Oswalt: Although he’s just 6-10 on the season (mainly due to the lack of run support), he sports a 3.08 ERA. And if you eliminate a 10-1 loss at Texas on June 27, Oswalt is 4-1 with a 1.26 ERA on the road.

As for Pirates starter Paul Maholm, the words “below average” come to mind. He’s 5-7 with a 4.37 ERA overall, 3-5 with a 5.80 ERA at home, and over his last six starts, he’s got a 5.68 ERA, and the Pirates are just 1-5.

If that’s not enough to convince you to jump on Houston at this cheap price, this should do it: The Astros have won seven of eight against the Pirates this season (the last six wins by more than a run) and they’re 23-7 in the last 30 head-to-head clashes.

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

Richie_Parker

Cincinnati Reds R: -1.5 (144.0) 1

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

ROCKETMAN

3* Houston Astros

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

B&S PICKS
3 DIME SYNDICATE PLAY Cincinnati Reds -145 ML
2 DIME BOOKIE BASHER NY Yankees -140 ML
2 DIME BOLD SPORTS UPSET PLAY OF THE DAY Pittsburgh Pirates +130 ML
1 DIME REGULAR PLAY SF Giants -105 ML

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

Foxsheets 7-18-10

All Rated the same today



Favoring: PITTSBURGH on the money line.
Play Against - Any team (HOUSTON) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL
(39-16 since 1997.) (70.9%, +33.1 units. Rating=
The situation's record this season is: (1-1 +

Favoring: ARIZONA on the money line.
Play Against - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (NL), after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs
(38-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.5%, +30.2 units. Rating
The situation's record this season is: (2-3

Favoring: BALTIMORE on the run line.
Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (BALTIMORE) - terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), after a loss by 2 runs or less
(42-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.4%, +30.4 units. Rating=)
The situation's record this season is: (9-2 +

Favoring: WASHINGTON on the money line.
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (WASHINGTON) - after being shut out in a loss to a division rival, a bad team (38% to 46%) playing a team with a losing record
(43-17 since 1997.) (71.7%, +33.6 units. Rating)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0

Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings
(48-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.7%, +33 units. Rating=
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +).


Favoring: BALTIMORE on the run line
Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (BALTIMORE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), after a loss by 2 runs or less
(82-34 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.7%, +48.3
The situation's record this season is: (13-4

Favoring: KANSAS CITY on the run line.
Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (KANSAS CITY) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), after a loss by 2 runs or less
(82-34 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.7%, +48.3 units. Rating=
The situation's record this season is: (13-4 +)

Favoring: NY YANKEES on the run line.
Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (TAMPA BAY) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games
(52-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.8%, +. Rating=
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 +

Favoring: CLEVELAND on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CLEVELAND) - poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games
(49-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.0%, + Rating=
The situation's record this season is: (12-5 +

Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings
(84-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.4%, + Rating=
The situation's record this season is: (5-2 +

Favoring: PITTSBURGH on the money line.
Play Against - Any team (HOUSTON) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL
(85-52 since 1997.) (62.0%, +55.1 units. Rating=)
The situation's record this season is: (2-6 -.

Favoring: PITTSBURGH on the money line.
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (PITTSBURGH) - after a win, terrible team, winning 38% or less of their games on the season
(56-40 over the last 5 seasons.) (58.3%, )
The situation's record this season is: (11-7 +

Favoring: PITTSBURGH on the money line.
Play Against - Any team (HOUSTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL
(66-38 since 1997.) (63.5%, )
The situation's record this season is: (1-1

.Favoring: PITTSBURGH on the money line.
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PITTSBURGH) - on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games
(39-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.9%,
The situation's record this season is: (3-2 +

Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the money line.
Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (NY METS) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, playing on Sunday
(62-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.1%, )
The situation's record this season is: (12-3
.

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

Dave Cokin

Play - KC Royals

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

Smart Analysis Sports

For Sunday,

Seattle Mariners (+128) (1.0 unit to win 1.28)

San Francisco Giants (-1.10) (1.65 unit to win 1.50 units)

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in San Diego vs Arizona @ 4:10 ET: Correia vs Jackson – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!


We are getting a low total here because of the long-term reputation of the Padres as a low-scoring team and Petco Park as a low-scoring park. While both of these long-term assessments may be true, the current cycle is telling us that now is the time to take advantage of the extreme value we are being given here. The Padres have been hitting the ball extremely well and they’ve now seen 11 of their last 15 games go over the total. Even in home games, note that San Diego is 13-4-2 to the over in their last 19 games! That’s right, just 4 unders in the last 19 games played at “pitcher-friendly” Petco Park! Again, we’re not trying to take away from the long-term numbers here as, indeed, the Padres and Petco Park are synonymous with more unders than overs through the years. However, we’re just stating that, based on the pitching that the Padres have been getting and the way their lineup has been pounding the ball, over players are being given an extreme value play here. This total may drop to a 7 but, even at a 7.5, the ability to not have to lay any juice and, in fact, get plus money on the return is a fantastic value!

Kevin Correia gets the start for San Diego and he has not recorded a victory since May! Also, he’s coming off of a start where he allowed two homers against the Rockies. Yes, that game was at Colorado but if you think that had more to do with the thin air at Coors Field than it did with Correia’s pitching, think again! Correia has given up six homers in his last five starts at Petco Park in San Diego. Additionally, the Padres right-hander has allowed 31 earned runs in his last 41 innings of work. That equates to a 6.80 ERA for Correia and he’s also struggled with his command of late. Correia has walked 14 in his last 22.1 innings of work. He’s just 3-4 at pitcher-friendly Petco Park this season and he’s compiled a 4.53 ERA there. In four day starts this season Correia has compiled a 7.79 ERA while being hammered at a .342 clip!

Correia is opposed by Edwin Jackson of the Diamondbacks. The Arizona right-hander is winless in six career games – four starts – against the Padres in his career. Jackson has compiled a 5.31 ERA in those outings. Also, in his last eight starts Jackson has walked an average of four batters per outing! His command has been off and he’s also allowed at least four runs in four of his last six outings! Jackson has been hit at a .317 clip in day games this season, compiled a 4.13 ERA in day games last season, a 5.20 ERA in day games the prior season – 2008, a 6.53 ERA in day games in 2007, and was pounded at a .340 clip in day games in 2006 and a .316 clip in day games in 2005. You can see the pattern here and we love the fact that he’s contending with a Padres lineup that has suddenly caught fire. San Diego has averaged over 5 runs per game in their last 19 home games! That’s not bad for Petco Park. As far as overall games, the Padres enter this game having averaged over 6 runs per game in their last 13 games! The Diamondbacks come into this game having gone 55-31 to the over this season in games played on a grass field. Arizona is also 16-9 to the over in day games this season. The Diamondbacks bullpen also ranks last in the majors with a 6.75 ERA and opponents are pounding their relievers at a .301 clip! The Dbacks are 3-1 to the over in Jackson’s four day game starts. The Padres are 7-1 to the over in Correia’s last eight starts and, on the season, they are 4-0 to the over in his four day game starts! Play OVER the total in San Diego as a *10* Top Play selection.




Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 7*(Regular Play) OVER in Cleveland vs Detroit @ 1:05 ET: Gomez vs Oliver – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!


We had to wait on this one due to the overnight pitching change to Jeanmar Gomez for the Indians. As a result of the change, there was no line available on this one until about three hours before game time so we will definitely go shorter than usual on the details for this one. We like the fact that these teams are off of a double-header yesterday where the teams second game went 11 innings. As a result, the teams have combined to use 19 innings of bullpen work in the first three games of this four game set! That is great news for over players as the bullpens have been used for a ton of action just in the last two days alone and now we have teams squaring off who are both using unproven pitchers. The Indians hand the ball to Gomez for his MLB debut. How well can it possibly go when his minor league numbers are 6-8 with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP this season? The fact is that he’s likely to get pounded and be forced to an early exit. That opens up the door with a bullpen that has been over-extended the last two days.

As for the Tigers, they send Andy Oliver to the mound and he’s winless so far in his first four starts at the MLB level. He’s been pounded at a .314 clip while compiling an ugly 6.38 ERA so far. Worse yet is that things have been getting worse in stead of better for the rookie southpaw. Oliver has allowed 15 runs (11 earned) in his last three starts and those outings have only totaled 12.1 innings! That doesn’t bode well for what’s on tap for him this afternoon. The Tigers were 6-1-1 to the over before each game in yesterday’s double-header stayed under the total. As for the Indians, they were 5-3 to the over in their last eight games before yesterday’s twin-bill. Also, the bullpen of the Tribe has compiled a 4.48 ERA and a .271 BAA so far this season. Each of those marks are among the worst in the league so far this season. Play OVER the total in Cleveland as a *7* Regular Play selection.





Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 6* (Regular Play) Philadelphia Money Line (-) @ Chicago Cubs @ 8 ET: Halladay vs action – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!


As long-time followers know, we play mostly totals in the baseball and when we do play sides we have a strong tendency toward underdogs and small favorites. Very rarely do we get into the moderate price range for favorites and we certainly avoid the large favorites as if they have the plague! That said, this one truly is at the upper reaches of where we like to play but after seeing numbers around -155 for the Phillies this one was on our radar screen. Now, even though the price has been on the rise, we simply still like this one way too much to just let it pass us by. You will notice that our specification on the pitchers above says “Halladay vs action”. The reason for this is that we feel Roy Halladay is the key to this play and so, even if Tom Gorzelanny would not get the start, we would still back the Phillies here. Halladay has simply phenomenal stuff and it is our belief that Philadelphia did some real good for him by giving him extra rest after the All Star Break. Additionally, the Phillies had the kind of win yesterday that a team can really build off of and, at the same time, the Cubs suffered a loss that is the type that can really sting a team for a long period of time. Philly was down 1-0 in the top of the 9th when they rallied for four runs…all with two outs! Carlos Marmol couldn’t find the plate and the Phillies took advantage of the struggles of the Cubs closer.

Philly will build off of yesterday’s win as they take advantage of a hurler whom they already faced this season and whom had struggled for each of the last two seasons before enjoying some success with the Cubbies this season. The Phillies struggled against Gorzelanny when they faced him earlier this season but that was the first time they had seen him in three years. Now they get a second look and Gorezelanny has just one win his eight games – six starts – at home. Also, the southpaw has a 4.24 ERA at Wrigley Field where he’s been hit at a .269 clip. He’s also just 1-4 in night games this season. In his career, Gorzelanny is 13-8 in day games but 20-25 in night games! The Phillies are 5-2 their last seven games while the Cubs are just 3-4 their last seven games. The Phils are 35-24 in night games this season while the Cubbies are 19-25 under the lights. The Phillies are 77-52 against southpaw hurlers the last three seasons while the Cubbies are a miserable 26-35 against right-handed starters this season. The Cubs have won just one of Gorzelanny’s five night starts! The Phillies are 8-2 in Halladay’s ten starts where he is a favorite of less than -200 this season. Halladay has been simply amazing against National League opponents this season. Though he struggled some in interleague action, note that he’s allowed two earned runs or less in 13 of his 15 starts against National League opponents. We expect him to dominate the Cubs lineup tonight and we look for the Phillies to build off of yesterday’s 9th inning comeback win and improve to 6-2 in their last eight games. Play Philadelphia on the money line as a *6* Regular Play selection.

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

GamblersWorld
Tip of the Day - July 18, 2010


Date: 7.18.10 at 4:05PM
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres

Current Line: San Diego (-140)

Over/Under: 7.5

Play On: San Diego (-140)

Inside the Board Room:
Righthander Edwin Jackson will take the mound for the Diamondbacks to start this game. Jackson is 6-7 this season with a 4.92 ERA. It'll be Kevin Correia toeing the rubber for the Padres in this contest. Righthander Correia is 5-6 with a 5.26 ERA so far this season. Yorvit Torrealba drove in four runs on Saturday night as the Padres rolled to an 8-5 win over the Diamondbacks. The Padres were winners as -170 home favorites in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the night's posted total (7).
Take the Padres tonight!

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

Frank J. Belanger
Official Pick:
LA OVER STL (moneyline)

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

David Banks

MLB
1:05 Yankees -130
1:35 Braves -165
1:35 Red Sox -145
1:35 Astros -137
2:10 Twins -105
4:05 Mets -108

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

BOB AKMENS

Toronto
LA Dodgers
LA Angels
San Diego

All Plays are 10*

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

MR A

Toronto Blue Jays -140

San Diego Padres -125

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

GINA

Sunday, July 18, 2010 3:35 p.m. est.

Seattle Mariners (35-56) at Los Angeles Angels (50-44)
(L) Jason Vargas (6-4) vs. (R) Ervin Santana (8-7)

The sorry Mariners have dropped 12 of their last 14 games overall and six of its last seven on the road. They have been lifeless at the plate, the lowest scoring team in the league. Look for the Angels to take a four game sweep of the Mariners this afternoon at Angel Stadium and their ninth consecutive victory against them.

Los Angeles has won the last five meetings versus Seattle in Anaheim. To boot, they send Ervin Santana to the hill, the Angels have been successful against Seattle with Santana at the helm. The Angels are 11-4 in Santana's last 15 starts versus the Mariners and 6-1 in his last 7 against them at home.

Seattle's lefthander Jason Vargas (6-4, 3.09), is 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA in his last three starts. Vargas is 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in 3 career starts against the Angels. The Mariners are 2-5 in Vargas' last 7 starts, 1-8 in his last 9 on the road.

Los Angeles' right-hander Ervin Santana (8-7, 3.76 ERA), is 1-2 with a 3.13 ERA in his last three starts. Santana is 7-4 with a 4.19 ERA in 17 career starts versus the Mariners. The Angels are 6-2 in Santana’s last 8 home starts.

Los Angeles Angels -145

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Re: 7-18-10 sunday

Bookiemonsters
nyy -133