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Top pick: #11 (MINESWEPT) - Freshened-up since an impressive maiden win at Belmont on May 20 this son of "Mineshaft" has been working fast and has previous experience (last year at age two) over this surface. Looks very tough if as expected this race is run on the main-track.
2nd pick: #7 (Abilio) - Last year's leading trainer here (Linda Rice) sends out this lightly raced and speedy son of "Pioneering" who broke his maiden on the dirt at Aqueduct this past April. He finished third on the grass last out at Belmont in his first race facing winners and will be making back-to-back starts for the first time.
3rd pick: #1 (Winning Token) - Lightly raced and speed/stalker will be facing winners for the first time after breaking his maiden at this mile trip at Belmont on July 2. Has the rail and a solid recent drill before shipping north.
4th pick: #9 (Mr. Vantastic) - Has some good dirt form in his past and one of his better efforts came some time back on a "wet" main-track. Working fast and he's a contender at a nice price to use in the same race exotics.
Top pick: #11 (MINESWEPT) - Freshened-up since an impressive maiden win at Belmont on May 20 this son of "Mineshaft" has been working fast and has previous experience (last year at age two) over this surface. Looks very tough if as expected this race is run on the main-track.
2nd pick: #7 (Abilio) - Last year's leading trainer here (Linda Rice) sends out this lightly raced and speedy son of "Pioneering" who broke his maiden on the dirt at Aqueduct this past April. He finished third on the grass last out at Belmont in his first race facing winners and will be making back-to-back starts for the first time.
3rd pick: #1 (Winning Token) - Lightly raced and speed/stalker will be facing winners for the first time after breaking his maiden at this mile trip at Belmont on July 2. Has the rail and a solid recent drill before shipping north.
4th pick: #9 (Mr. Vantastic) - Has some good dirt form in his past and one of his better efforts came some time back on a "wet" main-track. Working fast and he's a contender at a nice price to use in the same race exotics.
The D-Backs are just 7-14 against lefties and will face one here that they’ve never seen (other than 5 career AB’s combined) in Madison Baumgarner. Bumgarner has a nifty 2.41 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with a 24:7 K:BB ratio over 33.2 innings and that’s with four of his five starts coming on the road. In fact, his worst start came at home in his season debut but his last four starts have all been on the road and they include games in Colorado and Milwaukee. He has a 1.69 ERA on the road to go along with a BAA of .248. Furthermore, the Giants are 13-3 over its last 16 and remain one of the hottest teams in the league. Ian Kennedy is having a decent year and could have success here. However, the D-Backs are watching him very closely and they’re being very cautious with him so it’s rare to see him go past six innings (or even five) even if he’s pitching well. An aneurysm in his shoulder limited him to just 23.2 innings last season and he has already reached 116.1 innings this year. In his last game against the Mets, Kennedy was pulled after five and he was in complete control, having only thrown 86 pitches and allowing four hits and one ER. The D-Backs are going to continue to be cautious with him because this season is a wash and thus, the Giants advantage becomes even bigger. Play: San Francisco +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego –1½ +1.01 over PITTSBURGH Pinnacle
The Padres love playing against this host, as do most teams, but SD is now 19-7 over its last 26 games vs the Pirates. Mat Latos was given a few extra days rest here because of a heavy workload thus far but damn, is this guy the good or what? Latos has had 16 days off between starts so he should be ready and raring to go here and his numbers are just plain sick. He’s allowed just 75 hits in 106 innings for a BAA of .193. On the road his numbers are even better. How about 41 hits in 62 frames for a BAA of .181. Overall he’s walked 28 while striking out 99 and his WHIP of 0.97 is tops in the league. Over his last four starts, Latos has three shutouts and in the other game he allowed one run. The man is gold and the Pirates have never faced him. Ouch. For the Pirates, Jeff Karstens has been pretty good since being inserted into the rotation. Still, he’s just a fourth of fifth starter and nothing about his skills stand out at all. Karstens has a 4.84 ERA, a BAA of .291, a low groundball rate of 38.7% and a high strand rate of 75.4%. He’s also allowed 18 jacks in just 83.2 innings and that works out to about 1.9 HR’s per nine innings. Padres should score at least four (probably more) and that should be more than enough to cash this ticket. Play: San Diego –1½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
MLB ML - Saturday, Jul 24 2010 4:10PM
ML 956 LOS (-125) BetUS vs 955 NYM single-dime bet
Analysis: 1 UNIT PLAY
Pelfrey & Monasterios MUST START
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MLB ML - Saturday, Jul 24 2010 4:05PM
ML 970 OAK (-115) BetUS vs 969 CWS single-dime bet
I successfully played against both of these teams last week. Both were favored. Saskatchewan won but didn't cover. Calgary lost outright, at Toronto. The Stampeders were on the wrong side of a fourth quarter comeback. The Riders were on the right side of one. Those results have worked in our favor here. For starters, they've kept the Riders as the league's lone undefeated team. That's forced the oddsmakers to give us a little better line on Calgary than we normally would have gotten. Additionally, those results should have the Stampeders highly motivated to bounce back with a victory. Of course, the Stampeders' real motivation comes from the fact that the Riders knocked them out of the playoffs last season. The Stamps were the defending Grey Cup champs and the Riders took that away from them. Note that Calgary had a 381-338 edge in total yards in that game, which was at Saskatchewan. Last week, when playing against the Stampeders, I noted that they were playing on a very short week and with less rest than their opponent. This week, the Stamps are the team which is playing with more rest. As a result of last week's game occurring on a Wednesday, the Stamps now find themselves with 10 days between games. That extra preparation figures to have come at a good time. Not only were the Stamps off back to back nailbiters but this is a huge 'revenge' game vs. an undefeated team. While this is arguably the biggest game on Calgary's entire regular season schedule, the Riders have already played theirs - their Week 1 Grey Cup rematch vs. Montreal. Obviously, they want to keep their undefeated record in tact. That said, they may not be quite as 'hungry' as the Stamps. Already 1-0 SU/ATS here this season, the Stamps are now 14-2-1 SU and 11-6 ATS their last 17 games here. While they were 0-1-1 against the Riders here last season (scores were 24-23 and 44-44) the Stamps are still 11-7-1 the last 19 series meetings here. Playing at home and loaded with motivation, I expect the Stamps to hand the Riders their first loss.
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