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Arizona is 10-27 vs. division opponents this season
Arizona is 4-11 when playing in a Sunday this season
Arizona is 9-18 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season
A hot day in the Bronx with the wind blowing towards that short right field porch opens up the chance for some big innings here, with one pitcher particularly vulnerable, and the other over-valued. So we are in play.
We think that Sean O’Sullivan is absolutely in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. He was nothing special at all at AAA Salt Lake City, with a 5-5/4.75 in which he allowed 95 Hits and 31 W’s in 85 IP, but when the Angels called him up he appeared from this mound on Tuesday and checked the Yankees on two runs over six frames. So what is his reward for that sparkler? A trade to the Royals, which not only takes him out of the playoff hunt, but sends him right back to this mound again, a most rare setting (ever?) in which a top flight offense gets two cracks at a mediocre pitcher in their home digs within the span of a week. And having been embarrassed the first time around, as well as from yesterday’s result, the right focus will absolutely be there.
Meanwhile here is what we wrote about Phil Hughes, prior to cashing a First Half ticket at a big underdog price against him on the 4th of July - Phil Hughes hit an early peak that he could not sustain, and has been in a steady decline. A 10-2/3.58 bottom line provides the high price tag, but note that Hughes was sitting on 5-0/1.38 on May 5th. Since then it has been a 5.33 allowance over eight starts, and the recent trending is even worse. Over the last three starts it falls to 6.87, with 22 hits vs. 13 K’s, after he had been at 56 hits vs. 68 K’s prior to that. But making matters worse is that two of those starts were vs. the Astros and Mariners, offenses that are 27th and 29th in the Major Leagues in runs. And four starts back he had more than twice as many hits (9) as K’s (4) vs. lowly Baltimore, which is 28th in runs. Now he steps way up in class against a Toronto attack that leads the league in HR’s, and that is a matchup problem for a guy that brings one of the highest fly ball ratios of any starter in the Majors (if you are looking for yet another Hughes number that will regress, his ratio of HR’s per Fly Ball has been abnormally low).
Since that writeup Hughes has been roughed up to a 6.00 tune over three starts, with five HR’s allowed in those 18 IP, and that includes seven strong inning against feeble Seattle in Safeco field. From the time that it became summer on the calendar he has had five home starts, working to an awful 7.58, allowing nine HR’s in 29.2 IP, and that sub-set includes such offensive lightweights as the Mariners, (again), Astros and Mets (on current form). This one has a chance to be loose and free-flowing throughout, with both sides getting plenty of good swings.
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