7-25-10

[kar261]

Re: 7-25-10

A-Redd 75 Dime Play

Dodgers -1.5 runs (+130) over Mets (w/Dickey & Kershaw)
(note: line opened at +135 is down to +120 now at most books)

[kar261]

Re: 7-25-10

Stephen Nover 100-Dime Play: STL Cardinals over Cubs (list Carpenter only)

Derek Mancini 60-Dime Play: Cubs over STL Cardinals (list Dempster & Carpenter)

Fade Nover or Fade Mancini?? Tough call as both tend to hit their big plays. Good luck!!

[spook]

Re: 7-25-10

thanks kar appreciate it my friend..gl spook!!

[getloose]

Re: 7-25-10

Real tough call on the Nover and Mancini ordeal but with Nover and the Spookster on my side hopefully i cant go wrong!

[kar261]

Re: 7-25-10

Real tough call on the Nover and Mancini ordeal but with Nover and the Spookster on my side hopefully i cant go wrong!

Here is Nover's write-up:

Sunday's play
My 100 Dime Release is on the St. Louis Cardinals. And make note, I am specifying one pitcher for this game, as you will see in my detailed analysis. As this play is releasid at 5:30 a.m. Pacific, the Cardinals are -125 pretty much across the board. Be sure to shop the numbesrs as best you can, to get the best posssble number.

Analysis

I easily cashed on my 100 Dime play on Saturday winning by six runs with San Francisco over Arizona.

Right now I'm in the zone and feel just as strong about the Cardinals, with Chris Carpenter on the mound, to beat the Cubs. It's just my third 100 Dime play of the season - my highist ranking - but the price and matchup are right to back St. Louis.

Carpenter is an ace, an "A" pitcher who is having another strong season and is in excellent form. His opponesnt, Ryan Dempster, is at least one level if not two levels behind him.

The Cardinals are the best team in the National League. The Cubs are eight games below .500, do not have a winning home mark and are playing for a lamedsck manager, Lou Piniella.

Yet the price doesn't reflect the disparity between the two teams, providing excellent value on the Cardinals.

In making the Cardinals a lesser favorite than they should be, the oddsmaker is factoring the Cubs winning the first two games of this series. Before this series began, though, the Cardinals had won eight of their last nine games. They were forced to start washed-up Jeff Suppan in Game 1 against the Cubs and then rookie No. 5 pitcher Blake Hawksworth during Saturday's loss.

So it's not shocking the Cubs won the first two games. The Cubs are going with young players. But these players aren't going to be facing bad pitching in this matchup. Carpenter is pitching well and ace closer Ryan Franklin is rested.

Carpenter is 11-3 with a 3.05 ERA. His road ERA is 3.07. He has yet to lose a decision when pitching at night going 8-0 with a 2.23 ERA in night games. Carpenter said he's happier with his delivery than he has been all season and it's shown in his last two starts - two earned runs in 16 innings against the Dodgers and Phillies with a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and nine hits.

The Cubs have lost the past four times they've faced Carpenter. Carpenter is going on his normal four days rest. The Cardinals are 20-6 (77 percent) the past 26 times Carpenter has pitched on four days rest.

Let's contrast this with Dempster, who has a 4.30 ERA this month. Dempster's last two starts - both coming at home versus the Astros and Phillies - have resulted in six earned runs, 14 hits and seven walks in 11 2/3 innings. Cubs closer Carlos Marmol threw 20 pitches in getting a save in Saturday's game.

The Cubs have lost the last four times they've faced the Cardinals with Dempster. The Cubs have lost in 12 of the last 17 times when Dempster has been an underdog.

After this game, the Cardinals have an off-day on Monday before staying on the road to face the Mets, who have one of the best home marks in the National League going 30-16 at Citi Field. The Cardinals are going to see Johan Santana in that series.

Trailing the Reds by one-half game in the Central Division, this is a huge game for the Cardinals. So a strong effort should be expected. Look for the Cardinals to be on their game and for Carpenter to get the best of Dempster.


And here is Mancini's write-up:

60 Dime release on the Chicago Cubs and Dempster over St. Louis and Carpenter. You should specify both schediled starters here. Any pitcshing change would result in this play being null and void. As I release this selectson at 8:30 AM Eastern, the Cubs are +110 in Las Vegas and offshore where i look.

Loving this spot for the resurgent Cubs, who've responded to Piniella's retirement announcement with some strong efforts in winning 3 of their L4 games. Moreover, it was Piniella's decision to shake up the batting order that has really got his club rocking and rolling. Moving Colvin and Castro to the top of the order seems like a genius move, and it's paying instant dividends with the Cubs scoring 7.2 runs per game (batting .321) since the change July 18th. Castro has been especially hot (.489 L11 games), and for those of you thinking this is going to be an easy match up for Carpenter... You've haven't been watching the Cubs lately.

Its tough to argue against Carpenter (11-3, 3.05 ERA), but let's not forget he's just a couple starts removed from a pair of ugly efforts to begin the month. He now has to face a red-hot Cubs offense, which should do better in their second go around against him this season. Most bettors seem to think this is a major mismatch for Dempster (8-7, 3.70 ERA), but he's pitched quality efforts in 3 of his last 4 home starts, including excellent outings against the high-powered Reds and Phillies offenses. He had a slight slip-up against the Astros in his last one, but that's even more reason to believe he'll come out sharp tonight.

The best news for Dempster is he's catching the Cardinals in the midst of a mini-slump at the plate, which is significant. Betting baseball is all about timing, and right now, there's no question the Cardinals are ice-cold, while the Cubs are red-hot (in the short-term at least). St. Louis is batting just .175 in their L3 games - not good, especially when the Cubs are playing with a new found confidence. Gamblers are counting on the "avoid the sweep" angle to bail them out here, but buyer beware, there's a reason the Cardinals are only slight favorites tonight.

Price on this game is nothing short of a trap, making it so very easy to lay it with Carpenter. But instead of blindly playing the Cardinals - ask yourself: why is it so cheap to play Carpenter in this spot, in an "avoid the sweep" type situation. The answer is simple... Oddsmakers are begging for Cardinals money. Not falling for it. Cubs (Dempster) over Cardinals (Carpenter) Sunday night.


Also, Accuscore is 50.1% on the Cardinals.

Personally, I lean with Cardinals.......Nover was more convincing. Good luck all!

[kar261]

Re: 7-25-10

Al DeMarco (has been horrible lately):

Phillies 5-dime
Giants 5-dime
Rangers RL 5-dime

[spook]

Re: 7-25-10

David Banks

Rockies
Twins
A's
Giants
LA Dodgers
Cardinals

[spook]

Re: 7-25-10

5* SPORTS

4* Florida + 122

3* Milwaukee - 138

3* Cubs + 111

4* Cleveland + 134

3* LA Angels + 210

[spook]

Re: 7-25-10

Bob Akmens

San Fran
Boston
Detroit GM 2

[spook]

Re: 7-25-10

IF YOU GUYS WANT TO CHAT ABOUT THE GAMES OR CHECK OUT MY BIG PLAY FOR TONIGHT..CLICK ON SPOOK THE BOOK THE BOOK LINK BOTTOM OF MY POST!...I'AM 6-0 LAST SIX NIGHTS ON POD PICKS!!!