7-27-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-July 27th

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
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2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
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[904] ATL/WAS |5*|UNDER|7 Runs|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST

[912] Colorado |5*|-105|-1.5 RL|Network N/A|8:40 pm EST

[930] LA Angels |5*|-145|B+0|Network N/A|10:05 pm EST

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

SPORTS WAGERS ( RANDEL THE HANDEL )

Pittsburgh +2.06 over COLORADO Pinnacle

The Rockies are really going bad and while the Pirates are a welcome sight for anyone, this take-back is simply too juicy to ignore. The Rockies have dropped 10 of 12 and six in a row and that includes a four-game sweep in Philadelphia in which they scored a total of nine runs. In the last three games they faced Kendrick, Happ and Blanton and scored nine runs combined after they were shutout by Halliday in the opener. In a recent three-game set in Cincinnati, the Rocks scored four runs combined in all three games. So, over its last 12 games that include four in Philly and three in Cinci, the Rockies are batting a combined .209 and only the Mets at .196 are worse over that stretch. The Rockies also return home for the first time since the break after a long 11-game trip in which they haven’t had a day off. If the Pirates are going to win a game, one has to give them its best chance in this one. Jorge De La Rosa has had one good start in three attempts since coming off the DL. That strong effort came in his last game in Florida and it could be a good sign for De La Rosa but even so, he and the Rocks do not warrant being better than a 2-1 favorite over anyone right now. Remember, De La Rosa can be wild and he also sports a career 5.21 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a .270 BAA, not exactly heart-stopping numbers. The Pirates are not as bad as its record suggests. They have a very weak rotation but its position players are young, talented, exciting and dangerous. Since the break, the Pirates are batting a combined .297, which is fourth best in the majors over that span and that includes three games in San Diego. Zach Duke is about as average as they come and his chances of getting rocked are greater than his chances of throwing a gem. Still, he’s looked sharper in two straight starts against Houston and Milwaukee after a month layoff and has an outstanding GB/FB ratio of 49%/35%. Duke’s career numbers look no worse than De La Rosa’s and anyway, this has nothing to do with wagering on Duke and everything to do with playing against De La Rosa and the Rockies as unwarranted huge chalk. Play: Pittsburgh +2.06 (Risking 2 units).



Los Angeles +1.05 over SAN DIEGO Pinnacle

Much has been made about the Dodgers lack of hitting since the break and things surely don’t get easier in San Diego. However, the Dodgers have still won four of its last five and they also played four games at home, three in San Fran and four in St. Louis, all pitchers parks, thus, it’s lack of hitting is overstated. On the other side is the Padres, who are averaging six runs a game over that same stretch. However, they played three in Pittsburgh, three against Arizona, three in Atlanta and three in Colorado. Incidentally, in Atlanta they scored seven runs in the three games and scored one and zero runs in two of the three games. In the other one they were down 4-2 in the ninth but scored two in the ninth and two in extra frames. In other words, they were fortunate to leave with a win and could have left scoring three runs in the three games. So, the Padres strong hitting since the break is also overstated. Then we have Chad Billingsley plus a tag against Jon Garland. In four July starts Garland has an ERA of 5.73 with two of those starts coming at home against Houston and Arizona. The other two were at Atlanta and Washington. In 22 frames in July, Garland has walked 11 and struck out 15. In two starts vs the Dodgers this year, he’s walked six and struck out six to go along with a BAA of .333 and an ERA of 4.91. Garland’s numbers are a complete mirage, as this is a guy that has to get lucky to win because he rarely misses anyone’s bat. Chad Billingsley is the opposite of Garland. Here’s a guy with tremendous stuff and whose confidence is soaring when he faces the Padres. He already shut them out once this year and has great career numbers against them that include a 9-4 record with a 2.51 ERA. Current Padre batters have 28 hits in 123 AB’s for a BA of .228. Over the last three years in five starts at Petco, Billingsley has a BAA of .179. Again, Billingsley plus a price over Garland is just plain sweet. Play: Los Angeles +1.05 (Risking 2 units).



Chicago –1.02 over HOUSTON Pinnacle

The Cubbies somehow got right-sided after the break and they’re now on a 7-4 run. Since the break, the Cubs are batting a NL high .316 and they would like nothing more than to give Ted Lilly some run support. Lilly is a ridiculous 3-8 and it’s ridiculous because this guy pitches well enough to win almost every game. Lilly has allowed one run or less in five of his last nine starts. He’s 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA in 11 starts versus Houston, including 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA in his last nine. The man can flat out pitch and when his career is all said and done, maybe then folks will sit back, look at his career numbers and realize just how good he really was. For him to have three wins in 17 starts is a crime when you consider a 1.12 WHIP, a .236 BAA and just 28 walks all year in 111 innings. Brett Myers has been a model of consistency all season long. He’s pitched a full six innings in all of his twenty starts this season, which is unheard of. Whether or not Myers is approaching hitters differently than he did a year ago when he gave up a ton of jacks, we don't know. What we do know is that the bulk of his improvement is tied to a steep decline in hr/f. Even if we assume there was an injury problem affecting Myers and throw out last year's data, his historical hr/fly-ball tells us that he's been quite lucky - especially pitching at Minute Maid Park (+13% RHB HR). Myers allowed an amazing 14 HRs in 122 ABs vs. RHB in 2009 (that's the equivalent of a HR per every 11 batters) vs. 4 HR in 277 ABs vs. RHB this season. Well, the Cubbies just saw him six days ago and now they’re seeing beach balls. A Myers blowup is a distinct possibility. Play: Chicago –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

Greg Shaker | MLB Total Tue, 07/27/10 - 8:40 PM

triple-dime bet 911 PIT / 912 COL Over 9 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies - Over 9 (Duke/De La Rosa) -120 | Unit Value: 3 Unit (Total of the Week)
Game Date: 7/27/2010
Note: Let me first note here that this line up above is only available at a few books and most have 9.5 at -120 to -125 skewing to the Under. If needed buy down to 9 and if your book or books will not allow you to do so, I would wait it out or play 9.5 +100 to +105 at 3 Units anyway. Your waiting it out is your decision but since it is not going to 10, you can only lose a few dollars in Vig, if this line stands pat. There is no indication at this writing that it will go up or down. Good weather pattern for tonight at Coors which has been a large OVER Venue over the years at this time of the year and is doing so right now as well with OVER being 9-3 last 12 here. The Rockies are positively in their Best Hitting Posture as well facing the lefty. De La Rosa is not throwing well at the present time and Duke is a guy that simply does not go deep into any game he pitches. That means that we will most likely see the Pitt Pen early and they have been very bad on the road this year. Helping our cause is the fact that Troy Tulowitzki is going to be back in the Colorado lineup for tonight's contest. My MLB Model has 9 or Over at a whopping 64.7% and one of the highest percentages I have seen this year. I do agree with it for sure.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

Billy Coleman

3* Washington Nationals -135

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

DAVID MALINSKY

4* TORONTO -1.5 -105 over BALTIMORE

It was a sin of omission to not have backed the Blue Jays last night, particularly since we had been riding Brandon Morrow often. But that double-header in Detroit on Sunday created too many bullpen issues for us to pull the trigger. Now there is no such obstacle, so we are in play.

There isn’t much left in the Kevin Milwood tank, with his 2-9/5.84 showing a lot of validity because of the consistency of the Home/Away splits (1-4/5.86 and 1-5/5.82). He has been tagged for 21 HR’s in just 114 frames, which creates an awful matchup against a team that has bashed 21 more than any other in the Majors. The matchup problems have already shown – the Blue Jays have five HR’s against him in 13.2 IP over two appearances this season. And pitching to any kind of contact is a problem with a defense behind him that rates dead last in the A.L. on our best ratings, and is particularly vulnerable on the faster surface in the Rogers Centre, where the Orioles have been out-scored 25-8 in going 0-4 so far this season.

Ricky Romero ably takes care of the other part of this equation. He has held Baltimore to one earned run over 16 IP this season, including a complete-game, and a full-season 2.16 from this mound speaks well of his confidence level here. His overall numbers fell a bit before the break when he appeared tired in loss to the Yankees and Red Sox, but after a full week off has come back with a pair of solid starts, working a full seven IP each time, and getting 18 ground ball outs. This time the bullpen is also set up well, so the limited amount needed from that group should be solid.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

GamblersWorld
Tip of the Day - July 27, 2010

Date: 7.27.10 at 7:05PM
Game: Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals

Current Line: Washington (-140)

Over/Under: 7

Play On: UNDER 7

Inside the Board Room:
Tommy Hanson will be the starting pitcher for the Braves on this day. Righthander Hanson is 8-6 this season with a 4.12 ERA. Hanson's opponent in this one will be Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals righthander has a 2.32 ERA to go along with a 5-2 record this season. The Braves were toppled 5-4 by the Marlins in 11 innings last time out, as -146 favorites. That game's nine runs made it OVER the posted over/under (8.5) . Hunter Pence and Chris Johnson hit solo home runs for the Astros. Rodriguez improved to 8-11 with the win.
Take the UNDER tonight

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

teddy covers

dodgers/sd ov 6-

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

Marc Lawrence | MLB Money Line Tue, 07/27/10 - 10:05 PM

triple-dime bet 914 SDP (-110) Sportbet vs 913 LOS
Analysis: Play On: San Diego w/Garland (Game 914)
Note: The Padres will look to keep the Dodger bats on ice when they send Jon Garland to the mound in the opener of this three-game N.L. West Division rivalry matchup Tuesday night in San Diego. There couldn't be a worse venue than spacious Petco Park for Los Angeles to try and shake out of its hitting doldrums as they have scored five or fewer runs in each of their last nine games. With Garland 11-3 with a 2.12 ERA in his last 14 home team starts, and also 9-3 in his last 12 July home team starts, look for the Dodgers bats to remain silent one again here this evening. We recommend a 4* play on San Diego.

Be sure to score with another powerful play on Tuesday night's MLB card from Marc. It's supported with terrific winning angles inside the game, one of which is 90% forever. Hurry, get it now and win good again with Marc tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

gill alexander | MLB Money Line Tue, 07/27/10 - 8:10 PM

double-dime bet 910 MIL (-135) Sportbet vs 909 CIN
Analysis: Volquez is coming off a 2.1IP, 6ER, 5H, 4SO, 4BB outing v Was in which he had tremendous control problems. Against the Brewers, he has a lifetime 6.35ERA. Gallardo has a 2.45ERA in 2010 and has quality starts in 6 out of his last 8 qualified appearances. He has a 2.94FIP (6th best in MLB) and 3.49xFIP (12th best in MLB) this season. Against a lineup with significant power like the Reds have, Gallardo brings a 0.46 HR/9IP rate to the hill. That's the 5th best mark in MLB. The Reds boast a right-handed heavy lineup but Gallardo is holding righties to an anemic .188BA in '10, and Joey Votto, a lefty who is Cincinnati's most dangerous hitter is just 2-for-9 (.222) career v the Brewers ace. Gallardo also brings a 9th legitimate bat to any ballgame that he starts. This line is affordable because Volquez gets a lot of respect, and rightfully so, I might add. But something's amiss with him right now and against Gallardo in this matchup, that won't get it done. The Brewers are on a mini-roll having won 5 in a row overall and 6 in a row at home. I expect it to be 6 and 7 in a row, respectively, with their ace on the hill tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

SR COMPUTER

New York Yankees -240 ***

Milwaukee Brewers -145

Detroit Tigers +110

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

Michael Cannon

20* tigers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

Capri Sports


Colorado -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

Greg Shaker | MLB Total Tue, 07/27/10 - 10:05 PM

dime bet 913 LOS / 914 SDP Over 6.5 BetUS
Analysis: Strong numbers pointing to OVER here and My MLB Model says 58.2% off the time. That is plenty good enough for me to bet this one..List those pitchers...

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

Dan Bebe | MLB Money Line Tue, 07/27/10 - 8:10 PM

double-dime bet 910 MIL (-150) Sportbet vs 909 CIN
Analysis: We are firmly planted on the Reds fade-train, and it's going to take a monumental effort to extricate me from this cozy chair.


We faded the Reds yesterday to splendid success on the Summer Sizzler, and while the price is a little less favorable today, we're fading a second time in a row. Yep, back to the well.


Admittedly, there's some chalk involved in this one, but I happen to believe this is going to be a cruising winner, so it's in our best interest to swallow the chalk and bring home the units. Why?


Well, the starters play a huge role, but not the entire one. For the Brewers, Yovani Gallardo gets the start, easily the best pitcher on their staff, and probably among the top 6 or 7 starters in the NL. He gets some love, but probably not as much as he deserves, as pitching for a bad team has kept his killer season (and beefy strikeout numbers) under wraps, for the most part. Gallardo does not give up many hits, he strikes out a great many batters, and rarely ever gives up the longball, 3 great keys to success for any starter that Yovani has put into action. His walk numbers are a little high for our liking, but if he can keep those to 2-3 free passes, we should be fine in that respect.


Gallardo is coming off 6 shutout innings against the Pirates in his only start since the All Star Break, and he went 6 innings and allowed just a single earned run to the Reds the one time he faced them this year, a 6-3 loss that the suddenly relevant Brewers pen threw away back in May.


That is point number two in Milwaukee's favor the bullpen has absolutely turned a corner. The Brewers win streak has been highlighted by holding opponents to just 3 runs/game, and the pen has done a splendid job of holding leads and keeping the opposition at bay. Even the nearly-retired Trevor Hoffman has found his way to success in a middle-relief role. Cincinnati's pen has been decent, too, but the perceived advantage in the pen is not nearly as pronounced as the season stats might make it seem.


I also love fading pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery, as is the case for Edinson Volquez. I don't care what people say, it takes 18 months for a pitcher to get back near full strength, and Volquez's arm clearly isn't where it once was, at least not yet. He powered his way through his first start back with adrenaline and moxie, but his last time out Volquez got shelled. His pitches don't have the bite they did before surgery, his arm doesn't have the strength it did before surgery, and I'd be surprised if, (1) he pitched well, and (2) in the event he pitches well, goes deeper than 6 innings. The Reds don't want to blow the kid's arm out trying to rush him back, so we'll be seeing at least 3 innings of pen work from Cincinnati, and with the way the Brewers are clubbing homers (15 straight games with a dinger), every new pitcher we see is another chance that the Brewers will see a hurler that just doesn't have his best stuff.


The Reds offense continues to slump, and I did a very long piece on that in yesterday's writeup. Basically, the Reds are averaging a little under 4.5 runs/game since the Break, but that number is inflated by a few games where they scored close to 10. In reality, the Reds are scoring 1-3 runs most games, and not playing particularly solid offensive ball.


So, again, there's some chalk involved, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Milwaukee run up the score here for an easy one.


Play on the Brewers!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-27-10

Andre Gomes | MLB RunLine Tue, 07/27/10 - 7:05 PM

dime bet 902 PHI -1.5 (-115) Bookmaker.com vs 901 ARI
Analysis: MLB - 901 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 902 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: R. Lopez vs C. Hamels)

Pick: 3 units on 902 Philadelphia Phillies RL -1.5 (w/ C. Hamels) @ -115 on the greek