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Sometimes, we love that expression, and hopefully, this will be one of them.
Because of the chalk, this game fell to Free status, but I still definitely feel it's strong enough to make a play. The Rockies are starting to really hit the ball, they've scored a ton of runs in 3 straight games, and are piling up the hits as well. And on top of that, Carlos Silva is making a start in Coors Field, a pitcher that has absolutely been on the steady decline since starting the year so strongly.
I need to keep this note brief, but the Rockies got a key walkoff homer last night to pick up yet another win, and despite the Cubs waging a comeback, the Rockies prevailed, showing once again that motivation can be a huge factor in any game, even baseball.
Today, I believe that's even more important, as the Rockies hit righthanders well, and they're taking advantage of that home ballpark to the greatest extent.
Jorge De La Rosa has his game back together, and while most folks haven't completely taken note, I expect him to completely shut down the Cubs. His strikeout numbers are excellent since 2 poor starts when he came off the DL, and I expect that to continue in this one.
Look for the Rockies to wrap this series up in fine fashion against a lackluster Cubs club that can't pitch and can't hit, right now, and if not for a somewhat miraculous 3-run jack by Derrek Lee, would have been held to only 1 or 2 runs again, yesterday.
The Braves are really laboring these days with just six wins in its last 14 games. Tommy Hanson is a guy who also looks to be in a bit of trouble. When Hanson isn’t striking out a batter, he’s very hittable and it appears as though he’s fading. His 194 innings last season between the majors and Triple-A was the most of his career and he’s already up to 120 this year. His outings are getting shorter and he’s been rocked already on a few occasions. Hanson’s BAA is .270, which isn’t awful but it’s not so great either and the reason his ERA last season was so low was because of a strand rate of 80.3%. This season his strand rate is at a more normal 70.6% but his BABIP is .350, which confirms that when he’s not striking out guys he’s very hittable. The Reds crushed him already once this season (1.2 IP 8H 8ER) and that was in Atlanta and this park is a lot less forgiving. Edinson Volquez makes just his fourth start of the year. He’s been awful in his last two after a strong season debut and that is a bit of a concern. However, Volquez went 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA in four rehab starts and really his only issue is control. In his season debut he was brilliant when he struck out nine and walked just two. In two subsequent starts he was falling behind hitters and walking too many people and that’s why he got into trouble. The focus here will be getting ahead in the count and should that come to pass Volquez will be fine because he has electric stuff and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Braves are laboring offensively these days. Play: Cincinnati +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh (36-67) vs. St. Louis (58-46) 2:15pm ET
Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals is one of the best pitchers in baseball while Zach Duke of the Pittsburgh Pirates is in outstanding form right now, and both starters have had success vs. their opponent on Sunday. Therefore, do not look for much scoring in Busch Stadium today.
Wainwright is an excellent 14-6 this season with a sparkling 2.23 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 153.1 innings. As great as those numbers are, he has been even more unhittable in St. Louis, where he is a perfect 10-0 with a 1.22 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 11 starts! Yes, he was touched up for six runs in five innings by the Mets on the road in his last start, but he had allowed a grand total of one run in his previous five starts, and we look for a return to that form vs. a weak Pirates lineup.
Wainwright has allowed two runs or less in three of his four starts vs. Pittsburgh since the beginning of last year, including one start this season where he allowed two runs on just five hits with seven strikeouts in six innings. He is now facing a Pirate lineup that is second to last in the National League in batting (.241), just a fraction ahead of the Houston Astros (.240), and a lineup that is hitting .233 on the road.
Do not overlook Duke here either, as he has allowed two earned runs or less in five straight starts himself. Duke has also tossed Quality Starts in each of his last three outings vs. St. Louis, including his last appearance against them this year where he did not allow a single earned run in 6.1 innings. He also has the good fortune to be catching a struggling Cardinals lineup here that is averaging only 3.20 runs per game in the last 10 games.
These clubs had gone Under in three of their four head-to-head meetings this year entering play on Saturday, and given this pitching matchup, we look for that Under pattern to continue here.
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