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20 DIME selection on FLORIDA MARLINS over San Diego in the finale of a weekend series in San Diego. This Marlins are favored int his one, with the price ranging from -135 to -140. Note that Josh Johnson of Florida must go today or this play is VOID
Here’s how great Josh Johnson has been this season. On Tuesday in San Francisco, he yielded three runs on eight hits while striking out five in seven innings … and his ERA went UP! Not only that, it was the first time since May 8 – and only the second time since Opening Day – that the Florida right-hander allowed as many as three earned runs in a game!
In a nutshell, the guy has simply been THE best pitcher in baseball this season, and I fully expect he will dominate San Diego today. The only question is will the Marlins’ offense do enough to get Johnson a win? They certainly didn’t back on June 26 when Johnson held the Padres to two runs on five hits and one walk in eight innings, yet suffered a 2-1 home loss (the only time since the end of May that Johnson has been tagged with a defeat).
That day, Florida couldn’t get anything going against veteran Padres right-hander Jon Garland, who picked up the victory after allowing a run on four hits in 6 2/3 innings. Sure enough, Garland gets the nod against Johnson again today. However, since that June 26 contest in South Beach, San Diego is just 2-3 with Garland on the hill, and he’s given up 16 runs in just 28 2/3 innings (5.02 ERA) during this stretch. That includes a pair of home losses to the Astros (6-3) and Dodgers (2-0). And you have to go back to June 5 for the last time Garland completed seven innings in a game.
Back to Johnson: Even with Tuesday’s “off” performance at San Francisco, he’s still 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in eight road starts. And even with his 2-1 loss to San Diego last month, he’s still 1-1 with a paltry 1.13 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against the Padres – we’re talking just three earned runs, 13 hits and four walks with 26 strikeouts in 24 innings!
Bottom line: I know the Padres are hot and they’ve been the best money team in baseball. But to get Josh Johnson at this kind of price is a steal, especially when you consider that the road team is 13-2 in the last 15 meetings in this rivalry, with Florida winning six in a row at Petco Park over this span.
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