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The Angels took the first game of this series last night beating the Tigers 4-2. The win snapped the Angels 3-game losing streak. The Tigers just can’t seem to find their way having lost three straight and 10 of their last 12 games. However, the good news for the Tigers is they get to face LA’s Kazmir tonight. Awful doesn’t even describe the way that Kazmir has been pitching. In his last three outings he has a perfect 0-3 TSR with a 14.06 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Those numbers are a bit inflated by his last outing when he was left out on the mound against the A’s giving up 13 earned runs in five innings of work. However, the two prior starts weren’t much better allowing 12 earned runs in 11 innings. The Tigers start Bonderman and although he wouldn’t be considered for the Cy Young award he’s pitched ok giving the Tigers a lot of quality starts. At home this season he has a 7-4 team start record with a 4.06 ERA. Although the Tigers have been playing bad they find themselves in some very favorable situations tonight. Detroit is 22-6 at home over the last two years at home revenging a home loss as a favorite and 31-11 at home against lefties. Lastly, Kazmir gives up 1 or more long balls per start and the Tigers are 15-2 against pitchers who surrender one or more homers per start. It all adds up to a Detroit home win tonight.
This series has gone 5-14 O/U in its last 19 and we'll look for it to stay "under" tonight. Santana and Hamels should continue to do well in their respective roles: Santana, who is coming off a few sluggish outings, yet did throw 11 strike-outs at Atlanta last Monday. And throw out the 10 ER debacle on May 2nd vs Philly, Santana sports a solid 2.90 ERA in career starts vs them. And he won't have to face injured sluggers: Ryan Howard, Utley and Victorino. Santana is 2-6 O/U on the road. On the other hand, Cole Hamels has been a solid home pitcher for Philadelphia and should go deep into the innings here after all, he sports a 2.70 ERA in 4 career starts vs NY and is catching them in a sluggish mode vs lefties in which they're batting a meager .204 over the last two weeks. The Mets are 1-5-2 O/U vs lefty starters. "Under" the call.
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