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Brett Anderson has been very quietly having himself a solid season. Feliz Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in the American League but his team cannot score any runs and rarely provides him with adequate run support. It has to be frustrating for Hernandez, who in his last two starts (both losses), did not get one single run from his team. This should be a pitchers duel, but if your team cant score, you can't win. Take Oakland.
This is a key series in the American League Central Divisional battle and it all starts tonight when Scott Baker and Freddy Garcia square off. After what seemed like an atrocious stretch this season, Scott Baker has finally settled in and has tossed three solid consecutive outings for the first time this season. He is coming off of his best start of the season whre he tossed eight innings of shut out ball against Tampa Bay while striking out seven batters. Over his last three starts he has a 2.21 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. Granted two of the teams he faced were Baltimore and Seattle but as I just said he did shut down one of the best hitting teams in baseball. The Twins are 6-1 in his last seven starts against the White Sox. In a visit to Chicago earlier this season he tossed 7 innings of one run ball for the victory. Baker seems to step up against the competition, as he is 5-1 in his last six starts against a team with a winning record. The Twins are hot 12-3 in their last 15 and 17-5 in the last 22 meetings. Freddy Garcia is 1-2 this year against the Twins who I feel are the better team. Take the dog price with Minnesota.
WUNDERDOG
Game: Connecticut at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Washington -4 (-110)
The oddsmakers making Washington a 4-point favorite doesn't make a lot of sense when taking a look at what this Connecticut team has done on the road. If you consider the 3-point home court advantage, we are left with 1. The problem is that Connecticut has beaten LA and Phoenix when they were slumping, Tulsa, and their lone good road win was vs. Indiana. Washington has held teams to an average of -13.1 points per game from their season scoring average at home this season throuogh 13 games, and that isn't going to get it done for Connecticut, who has lost nine road games by 4 or more already. Washington gets the call.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
Tuesday, August 10th, 7:10 ET
The Tigers send Max Scherzer to the mound against the Rays in Game Two of this three-game series in Detroit this evening knowing Scherzer is 6-1 with a sparkling 1.51 ERA in his last seven home team starts. He has also cashed in two of his three home team starts during the month of August in his career, issuing four walks against 23 strikeouts in those games. With Tampa struggling of late in this park (6-10 last 16 games), look for mighty Max to to get the cash once again here tonight.
Go with Detroit
What we have here in terms of the starting pitchers is pure luck vs pure skill and it’s not in the Mets favor. Mike Pelfrey has already peaked this year with his peak level being a durable, reliable, humdrum level. As a ground-baller with poor command, results seem tied to swings of fortune. Way back at the start of the year, Pelfrey was completing a dazzling April -- a month in which he compiled a 4-0 record and a 0.69 ERA. Not surprisingly, his stock was soaring but many pundits branded him a fluke and they were right. Pelfrey's month-to-month performance shows little variation in skills, but luck played a big part in his April performance. Pelfrey's strand rate in April (94%) was thought to be unsustainable and rightly so. The stand rate seen in May and June (73%) normalized somewhat and as a result, Pelfrey’s numbers went south. Over the last 31 days everything has come to a head and now Pelfrey is walking too many batters, he’s allowing a ton of runs and his strand rate was very high once again at (88%). Since June 30, Pelfrey has seen his ERA rise from 2.37 to the current 4.17 Over that stretch covering 28 frames, Pelfrey has allowed a ridiculous 62 hits and in five of those seven starts he barely made it out of the fourth inning. Pelfrey has been batting practice out there and at the end of the day, the fact is he’s just a poor pitcher that got very lucky early on. Ubaldo Jiminez needs no introduction but it is worth noting that the Rocks are once again seeing beach balls and have scored 68 runs over its past 10 games. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.74 over WASHINGTON
Stephen Strasburg will be on a 90-pitch limit in his first start coming off the DL. Add his 23% line-drive rate and 80% strand rate to the mix and a struggle or two in the near term wouldn’t be a shock. In fact, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him limited to 65 pitches, as the Nats are not going to fool around with this guy. Why would they? Anibal Sanchez has performed extremely well in four of his last five starts and he’ll face a Nats team that’s batting .237 in August thus far. Sanchez was hit pretty hard in his last start when he faced Philly and lasted just four innings. However, that was right after he threw a one-hit shutout against the Giants five days earlier and a letdown often follows a true gem. Sanchez has struck out 22 batters over his last 19 frames and could definitely have another good game here. He’s only allowed five jacks all season in 128 innings. The bottom line here is that Strasburg will be limited for sure and it certainly is not out of the question that the Marlins could be leading, tied or down a run in the fifth inning, when Strasburg will be lifted and that creates a great opportunity at a very sweet price. Play: Florida +1.74 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO/Minnesota over 9
One has to figure at least one or maybe both of these teams to score a bunch. This is the AL’s second-best scoring and best HR venue. Scott Baker has pitched well over his last three starts, but his 1.2 hr/9 is a significant risk in the Cell vs. a CHW team that averages 1.5 HR per game at home. Furthermore, the Twins offense is on fire since the break, averaging an AL-best six-plus runs per game and will face the very hittable Freddy Garcia here. Garcia, too, has had three good starts in a row but he faced the Tigers, Seattle and Oakland over that stretch and now takes a huge step up in class when facing a difficult offense in a difficult hitter’s park. It’s also worth noting that current Twins hitters are batting a collective .400 against Baker (24 for 60) and the conditions tonight do not favor the pitcher. The early report is: partly cloudy, rain. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 MPH. Game time temperature around 85. But the real temperature for this one is over the total. Play: Chicago/Minnesota over 9 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
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