8-15-10

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Re: 8-15-10

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Texans(-1-1/2) last night.

Today it's the 49ers. The profit is 265 sirignanos.

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Re: 8-15-10

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +1.29 over ANAHEIM
Despite the loss yesterday, the Jays still offer up some tremendous value with a lefty going vs the Angels. Ricky Romero is an elite groundball pitcher (52%) and that makes him a threat every time he takes the mound. Romero has been consistently good for almost two full seasons now. The Angels .696 OPS against lefties this year is one of the worst marks in the majors and once again they’re in tough against Romero. Dan Haren picked up his first win as an Angel Tuesday by holding the Royals to a run on five hits over seven innings. He struck out three and walked one in the victory. He only has five strikeouts over his last two starts, neither of which featured fear-inducing opponents (Orioles, Royals). Haren’s BAA since joining the Angels four starts ago is an unimpressive .278. On the year, he’s allowed 188 hits in 168 IP and he sure doesn’t seem to be getting stronger. The Angels pen is not very good, its offense is not very good and once again, just like in the first two games of this series, the Jays chances of winning have to be considered as good or better than the Halos chances. Play: Toronto +1.29 (Risking 2 units).


Chicago +1.37 over ST. LOUIS
Tony LaRussa returns after serving his two-game suspension and the only thing that genius brings with him is the smell of whiskey oozing out of his pores. The Cards have dropped three of its last five at home and its pitching staff over that stretch has posted an ERA of 6.60. Things really don’t figure to get much better here with Kyle Lohse returning after a long stint on the DL. Lohse went on the DL in late May due to a right forearm strain. He was sent to a specialist for further testing and was diagnosed with extreme compartment syndrome, something usually seen in distance runners, not baseball players. In fact, this is the first known case of it occurring in a major league pitcher, leaving us in a bit of unknown territory. In this condition a sheath covering a muscle in the forearm does not allow it to expand. In his four rehab starts, Lohse posted an ERA of 4.74 and that’s not too encouraging. Before he landed on the DL he was brutal in nine starts with a BAA of .323 and an ERA of 5.89. Current Cub hitters are batting .355 of Lohse in 135 career AB’s. Meanwhile, Ryan Dempster continues to throw quality start after quality start. Dempster has won his last two starts while allowing one earned run in 12.2 innings and has a 2.89 ERA over his last four starts vs the Cardinals. Dempster taking back +1.37 over Lohse is an absolute overlay. Play: Chicago +1.37 (Risking 2 units).


Los Angeles +1.29 over ATLANTA
The Braves are coming off a rare loss at home but once again are overvalued here with Jair Jurrjens on the hill. Jurrjens has been very average since coming off the DL six weeks ago and while he does have some very good games, his xERA of 4.67 reveals that he’s been very fortunate too. He’ll never be a big strikeout guy and he’s very likely to give up a few runs today against a Dodger offense that is on the verge of a serious breakout. The Dodgers outhit the Braves yesterday 12-4 but only won 2-1. Only one Dodger regular is batting under .270 this month and four regulars are batting over .300. It’s only a matter of time until they string some hits together and get a few clutch hits with two outs. The Braves offense is in trouble. Five regulars are batting under .220 over the past 14 games and things don’t get easier against Vincente Padilla. Padilla is the real deal and everything in his under the surface stats confirms that. Padilla has shown an increased reliance on a new two-seam fastball that he is throwing over 25% of the time. Whether it is his favorite new pitch or the increased velocity on his curveball, Padilla should keep doing it because the results say it’s working. He comes in with impressive numbers right across the board that includes a 1.00 WHIP, a BAA of .210 and an ERA of 3.32, which is right in line with his xERA of 3.34. Padilla does not have a tough assignment here and one really has to like the Dodgers chances of an easy win. Play: Los Angeles +1.29 (Risking 2 units).


CALGARY –8½ over EDMONTON
You won’t find many that disagree with the fact that the Eskies are much better than its record indicates but what does it mean? Losing is very contagious and with only one win under its belt, a narrow and fortunate one over the Blue Bombers, pressure is mounting on this intruder and this is not the best place to be playing under the current conditions. Yeah, Edmonton has a skilled QB in Ricky Ray and they have a very good RB and some talented receivers but thus far, against some much weaker opponents, it’s all amounted to near nothing and when you throw in a brutally awful defense, it makes this task a daunting one at best. The Stamps are 5-1 and they haven’t even played that well. They crushed the Riders in Calgary in what can be described as “near flawless” and it was by far its best game of the year. Other than that game, they’ve just squeaked by but a visit from its biggest rival should have them peaking again. When the Eskies play here the place is electric and this one will be no different. The Stamps are a juggernaut of a team with perhaps fewer weaknesses than even Montreal or Saskatchewan. They are certainly capable of ripping the hearts out of this fragile intruder and would like nothing more than to kick this team when they’re down. Yes, 8½-points is a big number in this rivalry but the alternative to laying it appears much worse. Play: Calgary –8½ (No bets).

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Re: 8-15-10

Sportrends

Take Seattle W/Hernandez over Cleveland W/Masterson NO PLAY if < -115 or > -175

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Re: 8-15-10

CAPPERS ACCESS
Colts
Reds
Mets

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Re: 8-15-10

GAMBLERS DATA
Padres +160

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Re: 8-15-10

Lenny Del Genio | MLB Total Sun, 08/15/10 - 1:05 PM

dime bet 967 SEA / 968 CLE Under 7.5 Bodog
Analysis:
Seattle at Cleveland Under

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Re: 8-15-10

Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in Los Angeles-AL vs Toronto @ 3:35 ET: Haren vs Romero – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!


The Angels offense exploded for 7 runs in yesterday’s game and they gave the Blue Jays a little “taste of their own medicine” as the long ball led the way for Los Angeles against a Toronto team that leads the majors in homers. The sticks should stay hot today and the ball should carry even better in an afternoon setting where the temperatures will be in the 80 degree range and the winds will likely be blowing out toward center or right-center at a clip of 10 miles per hour. A little extra carry on the ball certainly never hurts an over player! The Angels have recorded four unders in their last ten games. The Blue Jays have recorded just 6 unders in their last 17 games. The last time Toronto was held to three runs or less in back to back games, they exploded for a 17-11 win in their very next game. We’re certainly not projecting 28 runs in today’s game but the point is that this powerful Blue Jays offense can only be held in check for so long.

The Blue Jays potent sticks will be doing battle against Dan Haren of the Angels in this afternoon’s match-up. Haren is 5-0 in his last six starts against the Jays but note the 5.85 ERA he’s compiled against Toronto in those games. Also, Haren is off of a very solid outing against Kansas City in his most recent start. However, prior to handcuffing the Royals, Haren had given up 62 hits in his last 52.2 innings of work. Also, he’s recorded just one win in his five day starts this season while compiling a 5.58 ERA and getting hammered at a .303 clip in those outings. In day games last season, Haren was hit 40 points higher than in night games. Look for the other starting pitcher in this match-up to struggle as well.

Ricky Romero gets the start for the Blue Jays and the California native struggled in his prior start in Anaheim. He may be putting too much pressure on himself pitching in front of family and friends in his home state. Not helping in terms of “distractions” for this start is that Romero just signed a huge contract extension yesterday. While that could help him psychologically in the long run, it also can be a detriment in the short-term as that’s had a lot of his focus in recent days. The Blue Jays southpaw is 1-2 in his career against the Angels and they’ve hammered him at a .316 clip. He allowed five earned runs to the Red Sox in his most recent start and that was the 3rd time in his last 7 starts that Romero has allowed at least five earned runs. His ERA this season is nearly two full runs higher on the road compared to at home. Also, his ERA after the all-star break compared to before is more than 1.5 runs higher in his career. Romero simply seems to wear down as a season goes on and his only start at Angel Stadium was an absolute disaster and we would not be surprised to see a repeat here.

The Blue Jays are a solid 18-12 to the over as a road dog of up to +150 this season. The Angels are 11-5 to the over in their Sunday games this season. The Jays are 8-4-1 to the over in Romero’s road starts this season. Haren’s teams have gone 16-8-1 to the over this season when he takes to the mound. In five starts against AL East opponents, Haren’s teams have recorded one push and gone a PERFECT 4-0 to the OVER against the AL East. His day game starts are a near-perfect 4-1 to the over this season. We like the low total, the favorable weather, and the power of each of these lineups in these settings as there is reason to believe each starting hurler will struggle in this game. As for the bullpens, the Blue Jays ERA ranks in the middle of the pack in the majors while the Angels bullpen ERA ranks among the worst in the majors! Play OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game as a *10* Top Play selection.




Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 8* (Regular Play) Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ New York-NL @ 8:05 ET: Kendrick vs Pelfrey – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!


We are all guilty at times of short-term memory. In handicapping, being cognizant of that – and taking advantage of the effects it has on most people – can pay off big. That’s precisely the situation we feel we have here. Mike Pelfrey of the Mets is coming off of a very strong outing. Kyle Kendrick of the Phillies is coming off of a very rough outing. This is absolutely impacting perception with regards to this match-up and, as we’ve written about many times in the past, it is important to never over-react to just one start. That said, the key here is that, before his last start, Pelfrey was 0-4 with a 9.24 ERA over his last six starts. As for Kendrick, before his last start, he had gone 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his three prior starts. The Mets have scored just 27 runs in 12 games this month and New York’s weak lineup is much less likely to get going here than the Phillies are.

Note that Philadelphia is 9-3 this month and they’ve scored at least 6 runs in 7 of those 12 games. By comparison, the Mets haven’t even scored 6 runs in a game this entire month! The Phillies are averaging 5.2 runs per game in August while the Mets are averaging 2.3 runs per game. The Phils will face Pelfrey in this one and he’s 5-3 against the Phillies in his career but note his 4.83 ERA and .287 BAA versus Philadelphia. His overall 3.95 ERA this season is somewhat deceiving as Pelfrey has been rocked at a .293 clip on the year. The Phillies are 49-35 against right-handed starters this season. The Mets, when facing a team with a winning record, are 11-18 since the midway point of this season. The Mets won Pelfrey’s last start but, prior to that, they lost EACH of his last SIX starts! As for the Phillies, they lost Kendrick’s last start but, prior to that, the Phils were 12-4 in his last 16 starts. That said, we see plenty of line value here with the Phillies as a small road dog at New York tonight. The better sticks, the starting pitcher who is in better form, and the more confident team at this point in the season! Play Philadelphia on the money line as an *8* Regular Play selection.




Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 8* (Regular Play) OVER in Chicago-AL vs Detroit @ 2:05 ET: Garcia vs Galarraga – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!


The wind will be out of the northwest and blowing at a good clip for this one and that means a nice “out wind” at US Cellular Field on a mild mid-August afternoon. After yesterday’s 3-2 pitchers duel we look for nothing of the sort today. Armando Galarraga gets the start for the Tigers and his five road starts this season have seen him get hammered at a .323 clip and compile an ugly 6.66 ERA. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in 6 of his last 9 starts. Only once in his last nine starts has he allowed less than three earned runs. Particularly concerning about his last two starts is that Galarraga has walked nine batters while striking out just two. To put it bluntly, the Tigers right-hander is currently struggling with his command and then, when he does find the plate, he’s getting rocked by opposing sticks!

Facing the White Sox certainly hasn’t helped matters for Galarraga in his career as, in seven games (five starts) he’s recorded just one win while compiling a 4.76 ERA. Another starting pitcher should struggle today and that’s Freddy Garcia of the ChiSox. He’s had success in his career against the Tigers but Garcia comes into this outing after getting rocked by the Twins in his most recent start. In fact, the right-hander has a 4.90 ERA on the season and he’s been hammered at a .292 clip. In other words, his 10-5 record on the year is not exactly commensurate with how he’s been pitching! Also, his ugly outing against the Twins was the 2nd time in his last 4 starts that Garcia has lasted 2.1 innings or less! As a road dog of +100 to +125 this season, the Tigers are 10-5 to the over. The White Sox are 11-7 to the over on Sundays. The Tigers are 6-3 to the over in Galarraga’s last nine starts. His five road starts this season have resulted in one push and a PERFECT 4-0 record to the over! Also, the White Sox are on a PERFECT 5-0 run to the over when Garcia takes the mound! Play OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game as an *8* Regular Play selection.

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Re: 8-15-10

Free Silver Key Pick for Sunday NFL Pre-Season Football

CINCINNATI -3.5 over Denver (7 et)

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Re: 8-15-10

Dwayne Bryant | MLB Money Line Sun, 08/15/10 - 2:05 PM

double-dime bet 972 CWS (-139) Sportbet vs 971 DET
Analysis:
2 UNIT PLAY -- MLB Game of the Week

Galarraga & Garcia MUST START

Chicago is 35-23 at home, including 22-5 in their last 27 at U.S. Cellular Field.
Detroit is just 18-36 on the road, and 18-35 in the last 53 meetings in Chicago.
The White Sox are 14-2 in Garcia's last 16 starts vs. the Tigers.
Miguel Cabrera (.455 BA, 2 HR in 11 AB) is the only Detroit batter to have any success vs. Garcia over the last 5 years.
Galarraga owns a 6.66 ERA & 1.73 WHIP in his 5 road starts this season.
Garcia has had 8 Quality Starts out of 10 home starts this season.
Detroit averages just 3.4 runs per game on the road against righties this season.
Chicago averages 5.1 runs per game at home against righties this season.
In their last 5 games, Detroit's bullpen owns a 5.79 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and .296 BAA.
In their last 5 games, Chicago's bullpen owns a 4.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .211 BAA.
After blowing last night's game in the 9th inning, Chicago wins the rubber match today.

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Re: 8-15-10

Underground Sports Connection

Florida Marlins +111

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Re: 8-15-10

CONSENSUS AMERICA

Sundays free play is the NY-KC game over

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Re: 8-15-10

Greg Shaker | MLB Total Sun, 08/15/10 - 3:10 PM

triple-dime bet 963 MIL / 964 COL Over 8.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies - Over 8.5 (Parra/Jimenez)(Best Bet) -110 | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 8/15/2010
Note: This is going to be one of my most brief writeups in a while because the reasons to bet this game is pretty cut and dry. This is a Day Game at Coors Field and that condition alone offers us a great chance at obtaining this low number. I do know that the Rocky Starter is back on his game but I am not sure if that will mean that he will be at Tip Top Form for this contest. Why? Because it is a Day game at Coors Field. It is no surprise to me that Jimenez Pitched games are 6-0 OVER the last 6 times he has thrown on Sunday. 4 of those have been right here at this park. The ball jumps during the heat of the day here in the mountains and we also have additional weather patterns that will lend itself to perhaps a few extra base hits and longballs. The wind direction precenting itself today has seen OVER at a 4-1 Mark this year and 15-7 over the last 2 years. The Rockies are absolutely in their best hitting situation facing the lefty and certainly Parra's career numbers bear that out as he has an ERA verses this team of near the 7.5 Mark in 2 starts. His last 6 times on the hill have been very poor against anybody. He is having control problems right now and that is not good stuff as there is no good reason for throwers to offer free passes at this park. My MLB Model agrees with what I have to say, saying OVER will be had right at 57% of the time. It does not take into account some of the stuff we have talked about here though, so I think that percentage is higher, and I will play this one harder than usual because of that. This line is going to go up so get it now.

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Re: 8-15-10

Lenny Del Genio | MLB Total Sun, 08/15/10 - 1:05 PM

dime bet 967 SEA / 968 CLE Under 7.5 Bodog
Analysis:
Seattle at Cleveland Under – the M’s blasted the Indians yesterday 9-3. They pounded out 13 hits and were the beneficiaries of two Cleveland errors. Prior to this outburst the M’s had scored only 2.9 runs over their last seven games. In day games this season the M’s are hitting only .231, and we look for them to head back to the norm this afternoon. The Indians have an awful lineup full of minor leaguers and they’ll be overmatched this afternoon when they face Hernandez. The M’s righty gets no support and as a result has an awful 11-14 team start record despite a 2.81 ERA. On the season in his 25 team starts he’s posted a 9-15-1 under mark. Hernandez has pitched here in Cleveland three times over the previous two years and all three have gone under the total. Masterson gets the start for Cleveland and hasn’t pitched very well this season with a 5.47 ERA, but in his two career outings against Seattle he’s only allowed three earned runs in 12 1/3 innings of work. Seattle is a $140 favorite in this game which is good situation for Hernandez going under posting a 17-6 under record when favored by a $150 or less. Over the last two seasons the Indians have been good plays under at home in day games with a 28-13 under mark. It all adds up to a low scoring game today in Cleveland.

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Re: 8-15-10

Sac Lawson | MLB Money Line Sun, 08/15/10 - 1:10 PM

dime bet 951 FLA (+105) Bodog vs 952 CIN
Analysis: On the one hand, I'll bluntly say that its possible that Homer Bailey rejoins the Reds with a new sense of poise and pitches extremely well. There is no doubt that this kid was one of the more highly touted young prospects a couple years back; the talent is there. With that being said, Homer hasn't shown any signs of poise at the major league level in his career, and there is absolutely no reason for him to be favored here today against a solid Florida club.

Sanchez is on the mound for the Marlins, and he's had a few great games on the road lately. The Marlins are trying to avoid a sweep here, so a good performance from Sanchez is needed. He's been that guy all season that they can turn to for a monster start, believe it or not. I do expect him to come up big on the road again, and I expect Homer to continue his Major League struggles. This line is simply incorrect, and regardless of whether Bailey has changed his ways or not, it's our job to assume he hasn't and take advantage of a weak line

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Re: 8-15-10

Beatyourbookie

Play Houston (-155) over Pittsburgh (POD)
2:00 P.M. EST

Pittsburgh is 4-28 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season
Pittsburgh is 0-8 vs. Houston on the road this season
Jeff Karstens is 0-5 in road games this season with an ERA of 4.15