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This series has gone 20-8 O/U and 4-1 O/U in Pittsburgh. Tonight, we'll look for the Mets' lineup to follow up with another rare run producing effort, this time against James McDonald who controls a lofty 8.10 ERA in 4 relief appearances vs New York. The Pirates' starting pitching has been bad and McDonald, who has looked sharp since coming over from the Dodgers, should fall into the slumping circle. On the other hand, the Mets' starter -- Jonathon Niese-- has looked great recently, but Pittsburgh is batting a healthy .273 vs lefties and should drive in some runs. Niese is 4-1 O/U when the 'total' is set at 7 to 8'. Pittsburgh is 7-3 O/U in game 2 of a series, and 10-4 O/U as a home dog of +110 to +150.
I believe the total is too high in this matchup between Houston and New Orleans. Saint HC Payton said he was "disturbed" by the defense's performance in the 27-24 loss at New England. So look for Saints to play harder on D in their 1st home game of the season. Meanwhile, Saint offense will drop off significantly once Brees leaves the game after around 1 Q of action. Houston D played well for 3 Qs before the deep reserves allowed Cards to pull tou 18-16 win week ago.
The Dallas Cowboys meet the Chargers in San Diego this evening in a most desirable winning situation. For openers, our powerful database reminds us that Game Two home favorites of three or more points in the NFL preseason off a SU and ATS win hosting an opponent off a SU and ATS home loss are 2-18 ATS in this role since 1983, including 0-18 ATS if they did not cover the spread by more than 25 points in its win and the opponent scored 24 or fewer points in its loss. That fades San Diego. In addition, Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips is 4-1 SU and ATS in his NFL head coaching career in preseason games when playing off a SU favorite loss, including 3-0 SU and ATS when facing an opponent off a win in this role. Grab the points here tonight. We recommend a 2-unit play on Dallas.
Line swing by 6 points, well yes. NY Giants may not mount much of an offense against Pitt with Manning and Sorgi both out in this game. Although the Jets first team hammered away at the Giants, the second and third teams turned the Giants / Jets game into a blowout, that will not happen here with Pitt playing 3 good QBs including a Big Ben appearance. I have no doubts Pitt will stress defense and NY will struggle on offense. Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh.
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
Green Bay saw the total go "under" the number in just one of its four 2009 pre-season contests; in Week 1 of the 2010 pre-season it lost 27-24 to the Browns as the total went way above the posted number of 34.
The pre-season is a time for teams to work on inefficiencies and its very obvious that the Packers will be focusing on the defense the rest of the way.
It's missing key contributors like LB Clay Matthews and CB Al Harris; “We’re not happy at all,” Charles Woodson said.
"The Browns drove the ball downfield on us the first series, 80 yards (for a touchdown)," Woodson lamented. "We had those type of games last year, and we can't allow that to happen again this year. There's some things we're going to have to fix. Defensively, we're not at all happy with how we played."
Although they'll still be undermanned heading into Seattle, defensive coach Dom Capers will have a much better defensive plan in place this weekend; "Part of our plan was to let 'em go out there and play," Capers said. "We didn't do near as much (schematically), but that was part of the plan. But, that's no excuse. You've got to be able to execute sound, fundamental football with what you're doing. To me, that's the biggest thing. There's a lot of coaching to do off this (game) tape."
On the other side of the field: Seattle saw the total go "under" the number in two of four pre-season contests last season; it won 20-18 in the 2010 pre-season opener as the total went "over" the number by a FG.
Seattle was outscored 100 to 37 in the first quarter last year which led to a 5-11 campaign; that trend continued during its first exhibition game, as Tennessee's starters jumped out to a 7-0 lead in the opening quarter; suffice to say I expect this team to play with an extremely concerted effort on the defensive side of the ball this week against the explosive and opportunistic Green Bay offense.
Bottom line: It wasn't all doom and gloom for the 'Hawks defense though; it forced three turnovers for the game, including interceptions by cornerback Josh Wilson and safety Kam Chancellor, and a fumble recovery by linebacker Matt McCoy.
I expect each team to concentrate on the defensive end; when you couple that fact with the rest of the above information, I feel that this number is simply too high as we're getting fantastic value on the UNDER here;
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