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The Tigers have not had success in this series nor at this venue (1-7) and we'll look for Minnesota to deliver again. The Twins are on a 13-2 home run and 7-0 in Baker's last 7 starts. Moreover, Minnesota has gone 20-7 at home with Baker. Sure, Verlander has been hot, but Detroit has been folding on the road (6-20). The youth of Detroit (4 rookie starters) becomes apparent when they travel. We'll grab the value with Minnesota.
Detroit is trying to avoid being swept today in Minnesota. The Twins have the better record but these teams are very similar offensively and I expect the pitching to be the difference today with Verlander getting the better outing of the two. Take Detroit.
Okay, this line has to be a MAC love fest type of line. Fact is Iowa St is a healthy 15-4 against MAC opposition and 3-0 as hosts. They return a veteran O-Line, a SR starting QB in Arnaud, and veteran Wr's. N.ILL on the other hand, was dominated up front last year by USF in their bowl game and I didn't notice them getting better over the off season. Lay the points with the Cyclones.
10 Dime - Southern California
Some may think that USC has nothing to play for, and they don't from a BCS standpoint. But from a pride standpoint they do. I know that Lane Kiffin will have them fired up and a very good personal friend of mine, his Dad Monte will definitely have them fired up to play the best they can. Line has inched up on USC instead of the normal "shoot up" This game is simply David and Goliath with USC possessing a veteran front 4 that will absolutely dominate an ALL NEW O-line for the Rainbow warriors. Kiffin will not be afraid to run up the score here and should do so easily. Lay the points but just for a little to we really get the feel of this team. They could be a bargain early.
Game: Florida Atlantic Owls @ UAB Blazers
Date/Time: Thursday Sept 2 / 8:00PM EST
Selection: 3* UAB Blazers -15
Analysis:
The college season opens for the UAB Blazers in Birmingham against a foe they
dominated in last season's matchup winning 56 to 29 in the Steel City. Revenge
is not really in play here because the Owls are in a major rebuilding mode after
suffering huge losses due to graduation. Those losses include eight offensive
starters with four-year starting QB Rusty Smith at the top of the list and the
entire offensive line. UAB on the other hand returns seventeen starters from a
season ago. Conference USA has had their way with Sun Belt Conference opponents
going 14-8 against the spread their last twenty-two meetings including a perfect
5-0 both straight up and against the number the last two years. The host is also
perfect going 4-0 SU and ATS when UAB faces off against the Sun Belt Conference.
Under the direction of Head Coach Neil Calloway, the Blazers have improved each
season and we expect them to continue that progression beginning here tonight.
Florida Atlantic has struggled as a non-conference double-digit underdog going
1-12 against the number and we project number 13 in Birmingham on Thursday
night. Lay the chalk with the Blazers as they bury the Owls to open the season.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 3* UAB BLAZERS 47 Florida Atlantic Owls 19
4-STAR Usc (-20.5) over HAWAII- Talk about a team with something to prove. USC
has listened as their program has been run through the coals with nothing they
can do about it. Now it's an Us vs. Them mentality and USC can finally take out
the frustration on the field. The Trojans know if they can compete for a
pseudo-National Championship there can't be a single slipup along the road and
that starts with the need for a blowout win tonight.
USC has not been a team to look ahead in game one of the year. They have covered
in four of the past five seasons in week one, with wins by 46 (at Hawaii), 36,
28, 45 and 53. The only ATS loss was that 28 point win in 2007, which did not
cover the lofty line. That is despite playing Ohio St. in week two the past two
seasons. With Virginia the week two opponent this year, there's no chance USC
will be looking ahead.
Speaking of that 2005 opener, that's the last time USC faced Hawaii, a 63-17
Trojan victory at Hawaii. This is a good situation for big programs as major
Conference teams (big six) are 10-0 ATS (8.8 ppg.) and 11-0 SU (37.5 ppg.) since
2003 in the season opener versus teams that they beat by 45+ in their last
meeting, if that meeting did not occur last season. (game number=1 and
season>=2003 and P:margin>=45 and (conference='ACC' or conference='B10' or
conference='B12' or conference='P10' or conference='BE' or conference='SEC') and
Prest>370).
This is also a good spot for USC, as their defensive work could have been even
better in that game. USC is 10-0 ATS (14.9 ppg) since 2003 when facing a team
they allowed between 14 and 18 points to last meeting, as at least a five point
favorite (14<=Points<=18 and season>=2003 and team= 'USC' and P:line<=-5).
They allow an average of just 11.2 points in these instances. Hawaii returns 13
starters but most problematic has just one returning to the offensive line. USC
has top 10 units in the country on the defensive line and linebacking corps, and
they will have a field day on Hawaii's backfield.
You might think Hawaii is the kind of scrappy team which gets up for these major
conference games and keep them close but since 2003 they are just 2-7 ATS since
2003 as a dog of at least nine points against non-conference teams.
If Lane Kiffin can do anything as a coach it's motivate his players. Hawaii has
had three chances against USC in the past dozen years and has gone 0-3 ATS. Look
for the Trojans to strike early and often in this one and make it four straight.
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