9-4-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-4-10

Steve Duemig
Saturday's Winners
30 Dime Play on Missouri minus the points versus Illinois in a game being played in St. Louis. As I release this selecteon at 2:00 PM Eastern on Friday, the Tigers are a -12 point favorite in Vegas and offshore.

15 Dime Play on Kansas State minus the points versus UCLA. The Wildcats Gophers are a currently a -1 1/2 to -2 point home favoriste at most places in Vegas and offshore. If this line happens to go up to Shop around because that line is as high as -2 1/2 as well at a few places. If this line happens to go to -3 1/2, absolutely buy down the 1/2 point as insurance on K-State.

10 Dime Play on Cincinnati as the road dog at Fresno State. The Bearcats are currenlly getting +2 1/2 points in this contest.



This line has been all over the place since it came out a month ago. It opened at 12. Went up to 14 and now is back at 12 as of posting. It might go up some more but I like it up to 13.5. The reasons it might go up is twofold but lets discuss the main one. Illinois will be using wide receivers to play in their secondary!!! They have been smashed with injurees back there and they have no other choice. If this was a few games into the season I think I would have my first ever 5 star release, but since it is the first we will be a little conservative to start out.. The new DC for Illinois faced Gabbert, the Mizzu QB last year and gave up a ton of yardage and 3 tds and that was with a HEALTHY SECONDARY!! Pinkel is not one to feel sorry for the opposition coach either and it's a tough start for hot seater Ron Zook, but we're not interested in feeling sorry with. Just cashing.




Can it get any easier than this? Yeah see above but not by much. The line has moved from UCLA being a 2. 5 favorite to it's current K St being favored. Why the big move? Well Vegas puts these lines up a month in advance and a lot can happen from the time they do to now. What happened? The entire offensive line for the Bruins has been obliterasted between injuries and suspensions. I don't think you want to go up agains Bill Snyder with such an exposed weakness. The O-Line is the most important thing to look at when handicapping early games of the college season. I was the main reason we hit our first play of the year. Iowa St. was simply better up front than N. ILL. Lay the points and remember if the line somehow goes to 3.5 in favor of KST then always buy the hook down!!!! That my friends will remain a constant through out the season. NEVER GET BEAT BY THE HOOK!!!




I think Vegas is trying to pull a fast one here! Do you think that just because Brian Kelly is gone that he took everything with him?? Not the case at all. He left the best part. his QB Collarus. this kid is a gamer like none other. n fact he has never lost a game that he has been the starter in since HS! He will be there along with a still very potent offense for the Bearcats and they will be going against a deflnse that has not improved over last year's non existence and they don't have the explosive Ryan Mathews to turn around and hand it anymore either.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-4-10

Mti

4-oakland
4-seattle

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-4-10

Frank Patron

20,000

Washington Huskies +2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-4-10

BOB VALENTINO

30 DIME Michigan Wolverines

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-4-10

KYLE HUNTER

Twins
Oakland/Angels U7
Yanks -1.5

O52 Gators
O57 Sooners
U44.5 Northwestern
Colorado -11

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-4-10

Pointwise

5 Tx t
4NW
4 NC
3 oreg
3 purd

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-4-10

Sports reporter

4* tcu
3* nwstrn

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-4-10

FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME


Saturday Baseball

50* Play St. Louis (-175) over Cincinnati
Game starts at 4:00 PM EST

Adam Wainwright has won 6 of the last 7 games as a favorite of -175 to -250 and he has also won 9 of the last 12 games vs. division opponents. Adam Wainwright has won 9 of the last 12 day games and he is 11-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 1.42.

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50* Play New York (-190) over Toronto
Game starts at 1:10 PM EST

Toronto has lost 4 of the last 5 games and they have also lost 37 of the last 55 games as an underdog of +150 or higher. Marc Rzepczynski is 0-2 vs. New York over his career with an ERA of 10.22 and he is also 0-2 over his last 3 overall starts with an ERA of 8.31.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-4-10

SPORTS WAGERS

EASTERN MICHIGAN +9½ over Army

No, this isn’t going to be the prettiest game to watch this weekend but it surely is one of Week 1’s best bets. The Army Black Knights have been one of the worst Division 1 teams for the better part of the last decade and have, to the best of my knowledge, never been this close to being a double-digit road favorite to start the season. This is a team that has won a total of two road games over the last four years and while Eastern Michigan isn’t going to do anything this year, the mere fact that you have to lay 9½-points on the road with the Black Knights is absurd. At best, if you like Army in this game you wait and see what they do in this spot but any smart handicapper will tell you it’s foolish to lay points with a team that hasn’t been in this position in forever, let alone on the road. The second angle to watch for is the “revenge” factor that readers of this space last year know plays a big part in the college game. Army did indeed beat Eastern Michigan last year and don’t think that the players aren’t aware of that. This isn’t a rivalry game by any stretch but when Army comes into the Eagles stadium for the second year in a row the coaching staff and players have a sense of urgency that doesn’t exist with any other opponent. We could get into the X and O’s of today’s matchup but frankly this is much more of a “situational” play than anything else. Experienced college bettors know never to lay large lumber to inexperienced, run first teams on the road. It’s an easy way to lose money quickly and one of the biggest traps inexperienced college bettors fall into every year. Play: #184 Eastern Michigan 9½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).


Purdue +10½ over NOTRE DAME

One of the things to consider when looking for a live dog in week one is playing against teams that are overhyped to begin the year and the Irish absolutely fit the bill. Notre Dame is overhyped because of a new coach named Brian Kelly that stepped in and is brimming with confidence, as he hypes his team. Kelly is thriving in the spotlight and in fact, some reports say that he’s had over 140 press interviews since May. Notre Dame is a serious college football program but they’ve been idling in mediocrity for years and Kelly’s blueprint for success is not a five-year plan but rather a five-minute plan. Kelly also made a two-minute music video called “We are ND”. He had talks with NBC about the pace of his “no huddle offense”, as the network was worried about getting in all of its commercials. Fact is, you can’t turn cat food into caviar overnight and the Irish simply aren’t that good. They’ll start a sophomore QB that has no big games in his career and that has thrown 20 career passes. Outside of star receiver Michael Floyd, the offense really doesn’t have much else. The defense has another new coordinator; its third in the last three years and this is a defense that allowed 400 yards per game last season. The Irish return nine defensive starters so they’ll likely be better but certainly not 10½ points better than the Boilermakers. Purdue is dangerous. They started out 1-5 last year before winning four of its last six games. Watch out for QB Robert Mavre, a junior transfer from Miami, who sat out last season with a knee injury but is fully recovered this year and ready to go. The kid is wickedly talented and confident and has a lot of weapons to go to. Purdue has 17 seniors and no matter how you break this one down the Boilermakers are not 10½-points worse than the Irish. Incidentally, the Irish have won six straight season openers and while this is a tough one, it’s still a South Bend rivalry that second-year coach Danny Hope will have his squad ready for. Play: #163 Purdue +10½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

[spook]

Re: 9-4-10

Romeo Santos


Memphis +21 @ Mississippi St. (1 star)
Arkansas St. +31 @ Auburn (1 star)
Syracuse -7.5 @ Akron (1 star)
TCU -13.5 vs. Oregon St. (in Dallas) (2 star)
Washington +2 @ BYU (2 star)
Michigan St. -23 vs. Western Michigan (2 star)
Northwestern -3.5 @ Vanderbilt (3 star)
Cincinnati +2.5 @ Fresno St. (4 star GAME OF THE WEEK)

[spook]

Re: 9-4-10

Lenny del genio

25* non-conf blowout goy--mich st.

[spook]

Re: 9-4-10

Gamblers Data (Fletcher)

4* OK.ST-16

3* Kansas st-1.5

3* washington+2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-4-10

Tony George

Kansas St. -1.5

With UCLA's starting QB out or playing at 60% at best with a back injury, and the Bruins figured to finish eighth in the PAC 10, I like the set up here. K State is still in revenge mode after a beating a they took on the road last year to the Bruins. Also UCLA camp reports are not good, injuries to an already depleted OL, and a whole new offense that has not looked good in scrimmage, from my sportswriter source in LA. K State will pound the rock with RB Thomas who was held to 54 yards last year in LA, but managed to run all over everyone else last season for over 1200 yards. An ex-QB, he also is on the radar of NFL teams at over 6 foot and 230 pounds with blazing speed. K State at home avenges a 23-9 loss last year. Play 1 Unit on Kansas St.


Northwestern -4.5

The fact Vandys passing game is weak at best, and throw in the fact their top 2 running backs are out and Northwestern looks like the play over the fall number here. The hung tough in last years bowl game losing to Auburn in a shootout by 3 points, but this SEC foe for the opener on the road is better suited to beat. The Dores also have lost 8 straight at home to Division I teams! With the entire OL back for NW, and their all world dual threat QB Persa back with weapons, I do not see Vandy trading punches in this one, even at home. NW is 8-1 ATS their last 8 road games and figure to move the chains in this one enough to squeak out a 7-10 point win. Vandy not the type of team who can play from behind and RB Norman for Vandy iffy at best for this game after tearing a MCL and getting scoped 3 weeks ago. Play 1 Unit on NW.

Cincinnati +2.5

Not the Pat Hill team of old at Fresno State. Not even close. The once vaunted defenses are no more. Cincy without coach Kelly, but return a ton of explosive players on offense, and work out of fall camp is that QB Zach Collaros who started numerous games last year after QB Pike went down, is as sharp as ever, He is a serious dual threat QB and is backed up by a decent WR unit and solid RB in Pead as well. With a defense that ranked 98th overall last year and worse than that against the run, against the open spread attack, I doubt Fresno can trade punches all night long in this one against a team under the radar screen here. While Cincys defense is not stellar, their offense still is and they have the best talent on this field as an underdog against a Fresno team that is middle of the pack in the WAC. I will grab the points and expect a 3-6 point Cincy outright win. Play 1 Unit on Cincy.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-4-10

Sam Clayton

2* ILL +12.5 vs MIZZOU

First things first: I hate Illinois football. I've always been an orange and blue basketball fan so go figure when I was an undergrad in Champaign, the hoops were going through their hangover period after Dee Brown, Deron Williams and Luther Head left the program. Oh, and the Illini went to the Rose Bowl -- which I still believe to this day was a FLUKE . . . Anyways, Illinois football returned to trash the past couple years with the lackluster play of Juice Williams, who peaked as a sophomore and never got better after leading the troops to Pasadena. The offensive line was hit or miss, the defense couldn't stay healthy and the quarterback position was a revolving door -- giving the entire team ZERO confidence. Illinois was destroyed in last year's opener by Mizzou 37-9 (I was all over the Tigers) and finished their season 3-7 all while filling my pockets with cabbage along the way.

But what a difference a year can make. We'll get to the revenge factor in just a second, but Illinois has improved by leaps and bounds. Are they ready to contend with the big boys in the Big Ten? Hell. No. They are, however, much stronger on the defensive side of the ball with the ENTIRE D-line back and all-conference linebacker Martez Wilson finally healthy. Offensively, they return both tailbacks, a WHALE of an offensive line (they average 6-5, 315) and incredibly quick wide receivers Jarred Fayson the Florida transfer and A.J. Jenkins. Redshirt freshman Nathan Scheelhaase is the only question mark in my eyes, but we saw what new Illini OC Bobby Petrino did with Ryan Mallett in Arkansas and knowing how QUICK Scheelhaase is and how well he can throw on the move PLUS the reports from Camp Rantoul raving about how confident he is -- I'll roll the dice.

R-E-V-E-N-G-E: Revenge is like biting a dog because the dog bit you. Well, the Illini are sick and tired of being pummeled, or bit, by Mizzou. The Tigers have RAN this rivalry the past four seasons and the many seniors on Illinois have made it known that this is a statement game. It all sounds good on paper, yes, but from what I've heard from players on the team: THIS is the game that has been circled since spring ball. Not Ohio State. Not Penn State. Not Northwestern. This team WANTS Mizzou in what will be the last installment in the Arch Rivalry.

Line related notions showcase extreme reverse line movement. The public is HAMMERING Mizzou, yet after opening up at 13.5, I'm seeing 12 at some shops. The spread crossing through a KEY NUMBER and holding tight with all the cash coming in on the Tigers speaks volumes to me. Mizzou has a great quarterback in Blaine Gabbert, but his go-to guy and tailback Darius Washington is suspended and the Tigers lost the unquestioned leader of their defense, Sean Witherspoon. All signs point to a game decided by less than a touchdown. Neutral game site, split crowd and an incredible desire to finally crack Mizzou between the eyes has me siding with the Illini plus the points. Hail to the Orange.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-4-10

Evan Altemus

4 Units Tulsa -8.5

Analysis: Tulsa should have a much more potent offense this season, returning four starters on the offensive line, but more importantly their starting quarterback G.J. Kinne. Overall the Golden Hurricane return nine out of eleven starters on offense as well. Homefield hasn’t really mattered in this series either, with the road team covering the last three times these teams have played. This game should be a big statement game for the Tulsa program overall. They had a very disappointing season last year, going 5-7, including a six game losing streak, before ending the year with an overtime win over Memphis. However, that stretch included games against the best conference teams one after another when they weren’t’ playing well. However, the defense returns three out of four starters on the defensive line, so both the offense and defense looks more stable than last year. Meanwhile, this season looks to be a down year for East Carolina. They hired Ruffin McNeil to replace Skip Holtz as the head coach, but McNeil has no head coaching experience and his defense wasn’t particularly dominant at Texas Tech. He only returns six starters overall and is also trying to install a Texas Tech style spread offense. The Golden Hurricane were embarrassed by the Pirates last year at home, losing 44-17, so there is added motivation for them in this game to avenge the blowout loss. East Carolina’s team has hardly any returning starters, a new coach with a new offensive and defensive scheme, and facing a team returning several starters with a big revenge factor. The Pirates don’t have a dominant home field advantage, so I think Tulsa won’t be affected by playing on the road in this game, especially with it being the first game of the year. Look for Tulsa to avenge last year’s disappointing season with a big road win here.