Tweet
Re: 9-4-10
Billy Coleman
Det -115
Mich -3
Org St +13.5
Ark St +31
Maryland +6.5 (Mon 9/6
Billy Coleman
Det -115
Mich -3
Org St +13.5
Ark St +31
Maryland +6.5 (Mon 9/6
-
Re: 9-4-10
Jeff Benton Saturday's 25 Dime Trifecta ...
25 DIME selection on NOTRE DAME minus the points in a season-opening contest against Purdue. At the time I publish this release, the Irish are a home favorite with the line fluctuating between 10½ and 11. Shop around do your best to grab that 10½, and if you do, go ahead and invest in the half-point to take the number to -10. If the best number you can get is -11, there is no need to buy off that number.
25 DIME selecetion on NORTHWESTERN minus the points in a season-opening contest at Vanderbilt. At the time I publish this release, the Wildcats are a road favorite of 3½ to 4 points. Do whatever you have to in order to get that 3½, then invest in the half-point to take the number from -3½ to -3, which is obviously a crucial number in football.
25 DIME selection on the BOSTON RED SOX over the White Sox in GAME 1 of a doubleheader from Fenway Park. At the time I pubrlish this release, Boston is ranging from a -135 to -140 favorite both here in Vegas and offshore. You must list Clay Buchholz as the Red Sox starting pitcher. If Buchholz doesn’t take the mound, this play is null and void.
Notre Dame
The college football world is about to find out the answer to a classic chicken-and-egg-like question with respect to Notre Dame: Was the problem the players, or was the problem Charlie Weis? Clearly, as evidenced by this play, I believe it was the latter.
From the get go, Weis was in way over his head as a college football ringleader, especially when it came to guiding one of the most prestigaous programs in the sport’s history. Every spring you’d hear about Weis’ Top 10 recruiting classes, and then ever fall those quality players would fail to live up to expectations. Now the Irish have a real coach in Brian Kelly, who resurrected programs at his last two stops, most recently putting Cincinnati on the national map (under Kelly, the Bearcats won back-to-back Big East titles and with it snared consecutive BCS Bowl berths).
It’s obviously going to take time for Kelly’s intricate spread-option offense to take hold in South Bend, and he is behind the 8-ball in that the team’s top two offensive threats – QB Jimmy Clausen and WR Golden Tate – bolted for the NFL. But junior Dayne Crist has the makeup of the kind of QB who can succeed in Kelly’s offense, and remember that last year both of Kelly’s QBs at Cincinnati – tall, drop-back passer Tony Pike and the more mobile Zach Collaros – put up big numbers in different ways for the Bearcats.
And while Tate is gone, speedy wideout Michael Floyd (100-plus yards receiving in five of his last six games) is back, as are the team’s two leading rushers. More than anything, though, Notre Dame must improve on the other side of the ball (it gave up 397.8 total yards per game last year, including 170.3 rushing ypg, which ranked 86th and 89th, respectively). The good news is eight of 12 defensive starters are back, mostly in the front seven.
The better news: Purdue’s defense was even worse than Notre Dame’s last year, yielding 29.1 points per game and 173.4 rushing ypg. The one thing the Boiler’s did well last year on defense was stop the pass, but they lost all four defensive backs. They also lost prolific QB Joey Elliott (3,000 yards passing, 23 TDs). That’s a 1-2 punch to the gut for a squad coming off consecutive losing seasons.
The last two times Purdue paid a visit to South Bend, it got waxed 35-21 in 2006 and 38-21 in 2008. In fact, the Irish have taken four of the last five meetings, including three double-digit wins. Last year Notre Dame was up 17-7 but the defense fell apart and Clausen needed a fourth-quarter rally to win 24-21. With the defense presuemably improved and Kelly pushing the right buttons on offense, the Irish won’t need any comeback effort today. They’ll lead comfortably wire to wire.
One last thing: If Kelly gets the chance to make a statement by running up the score, he’ll do it – especially since this will likely be the only opportunity to do so until mid-October, as the Notre Dame’s next five games are against Michigan, Michigan State, Stanford, Boston College and Pitt.
Northwestern
Love what Northwestern alum Pat Fitzgerald has done since taking over the Wildcats. After a 6-6 inaugural campaign in 2007, Fitzgerald has led Northwestern to back-to-back winning seasons (9-4 and 8-5) and two premier bowl games, including a New Year’s Day contest last year.
Yes, Northwestern came up just short in those two bowl games, losing in overtime to both Missouri and Auburn, but clearly this is a program on the upswing, and the young coach deserves the bulk of the credit. On the flip side, Vanderbilt is a program in flux. After going 7-6 and winning their first bowl game in more than half a century in 2008, the Commodores – despite returning 18 starters – fell on their face last year, going 2-10.
One of those two wins was a season-opening 45-0 pasting of Division I-AA Western Carolina. The only other W came in a 36-17 victory at Rice, which also went 2-10 last year, losing its first nine in a row. You take away those two wins, plus a 56-31 loss at Georgia Tech, and Vanderbilt scored a grand total of 84 points in its other nine games (barely 9 points per contest), tallying 13 points or less eight times. In all, Vandy’s average of 16.3 ppg ranked 113th out of 117 teams in the nation.
It was enough to make coach Bobby Johnson hand in his whistle after eight seasons at the helm – only Johnson didn’t resign after the season; he waited until July, leaving his players high and dry just weeks before the start of fall camp.
You talk about two programs at opposite ends of the stability spectrum! Even more troubling, Vandy – which went 0-5 SU and ATS in its lined home games last year, returns just 11 starters.
Admittedly, Northwestern has some holes to fill, too, as it must replace its starting QB and two leading receivers. But here’s where Fitzgerald’s presence comes into play; whereas such key losses would’ve crippled his predecessors and sent the program tumbling backward, Fitzgerald has been able to reload and all accounts suggest junior QB Dan Persa will be every bit as successful as the departed Mike Kafka (who threw for more than 3,400 yards and accounted for 25 passing and rushing TDs last year).
Bottom line: These are two teams headed in different directions. And when you contrast Vandy’s ugly results at home last year in lined games with the fact that Northwestern has won seven of its last 10 road games and covered in eight of the last nine away from Evanston, that puts me all over the Wildcats here, especially at a cheap price.
Red Sox (GAME 1 OF DOUBLEHEADER)
Forget about the fact the Red Sox have tattooed left-handed pitching at Fenway Park this year, to the tune of a .282 team batting average. Forget about the fact that the southpaw they’re facing today – Chicago’s John Danks – has a 7.79 ERA in his last three starts and that his team is 1-5 in his last six outings, including three straight road losses. Forget about the fact that Danks is 1-4 with a 5.08 ERA in five career starts against Boston, with the White Sox getting outsrored in those four losses by a combined tally of 32-5.
All of that is interesting stuff and certainly supports this play. But really what this comes down to is Boston’s Clay Buchholz has been almost perfect over the past six weeks. Since getting roughed up in a 6-4 loss at Oakland – his first start after spending a month on the DL – Buchholz is 5-0 with a 1.07 ERA in seven starts, six of which the Red Sox have won. In those eight starts, he’s allowed just 35 hits and 14 walks (49 baserunners) in 50 2/3 innings, and opponents are barely batting .200 against him.
In his last four starts overall, Buchholz has given up just one earned run in 28 1/3 innings (that came in Boston’s 3-2 loss at Tampa Bay on Saturday – its only defeat with Buchholz starting since July 21). And in his last three home starts, he’s allowed just two runs (one earned) on 12 hits in 21 innings. Boston won all three games by a combined score of 15-3.
For the season, Buchholz is 15-5 with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, including 7-3 with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 11 starts at home. He’s also 13-3 with a 1.76 ERA in night games (2-2, 4.03 in the daytime). And then there’s this: With Buchholz starting, Boston is on positive hot streaks of 26-8 overall, 7-0 at home, 21-6 as a favorite, 8-1 against A.L. Central teams, 11-1 versus opponents with a winning record, 5-0 on Friday and 14-3 when he opens a series.
By comparison, the White Sox are 1-5 in Danks’ last six starts overall, 0-4 in his last four against the A.L. East and 2-11 in his last 13 Friday starts.
Throw in Chicago’s 2-8 record in its last 10 games at Fenway Park, and this is a big-time no-brainer! Lay it with the BoSox.Comment
-
Re: 9-4-10
Don Wallace Sports
NCAA Football
Oklahoma -33.5
Michigan -3
Clemson -27
Washington PKComment
-
Re: 9-4-10- GC MLB Play
Saturday Quad pack: Non Conference NCAAF Game of the Month, Triple Perfect Revenger + 92% Dog with Bite System and MLB Game of the Week Friday Top play cashes.
On Saturday the free MLB play is on the Seattle Mariners. Game 980 at 10:10 eastern. The Mariners fit a nice system here that cashes 75% of the time. Play on certain home teams off a 1 run home favored win if the total was 8 or less and both teams scored 2 or less runs and had 4 or less hits. The Indians are just 2-8 as a road dog from +100 to +125 this season. On the mound they have a struggling pitcher in Talbot who has a 7.47 era over his past 3 starts. Seattle hurler Pauley has a decent home era at home this season as well. Look for Seattle to get game 2 here tonight. On Saturday there are 4 Big games up. The big Double system Non Conference Game of the Month, the Triple Perfect Revenger and the 92% Dog with bite and the MLB System Game of the week which may not be close. Two games are late afternoon the rest are night games. We cashed the Top play on Friday and look to pick up where we left off, last year in Football. For the free play take the Seattle Mariners. bol GCComment
-
Re: 9-4-10
Marc Lawrence
Guaranteed Pick: Marc Lawrence
Game: Arkansas St. at Auburn Sep 4 2010 7:00PM
Prediction: Arkansas St.
Reason: Play On: Arkansas State (Game 201) Note: The Red Wolves invade Auburn to take on the Tigers in the season opener for both squads with plenty of winning angles in their favor this evening. For openers, ASU is 5-2 SU in season openers under head coach Steve Roberts, including 3-1 SU and 3-0 ATS the last four seasons, includiing a four-point win at Texas A&M (as a 19-point underdog) and an eight-point loss at Texas (as a 40-point underdog). From our database we note that dogs of 28 or more points in season opening games that won three or more games the previous year are 12-2 ATS when facing a foe in its season opener that won eight or fewer games last year since 1995, including 7-0 ATS if the opponent won 13 or less of its previous 22 games. It should also be noted that while the Tigers improved from five wins to eight last season, their defense deteriorated 56 YPG in the process, marking the third straight year it has declined. With Auburn head coach Gene Chizik just 13-24 straight-up in his college football head coaching career, with ONE WIN by more than 27 points (a 32-victory over Furman), and the Tigers having SEC rival Mississippi State on deck this Thursday, look for the Red Wolves to howl once again tonight. We recommend a strong 3-unit play on Arkansas State. Note: this game is DOUBLE GUARANTEEDComment
Comment