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Stephen Nover
Sunday's plays
My dime trifecta is on Bengals, Packers and 49ers. And as I relesse these plays at 3 a.m. Pacific, the lines are Bengals +5, Packers -3 and 49ers -3, both here in Las Vegas and at the offshnore books. Remember, this is the time of year it makes sense to have multiple books so you can compcre lines and shop your numbers for the best line.
Now, this is very important, as I want you buying half points on all three games: buying the Bengals up to +5-1/2, the Packers down to -2-1/2 and the Niners down to -2-1/2.
The G-Man is not a real big believer of the "revenge" factor in the NFL...college football, yes for sure, but in the NFL not so much. There are exceptions however, and this Caroilina-New York Giants game qualifies.
Last year in the Giants last game ever at the old Meadowlands, Carolina walked into the Giants house and pissed all over them in a 41-9 embarrassment.
I think Big Blue has a payback in mind in the first game of their new stadium, and I think they will be able to not only get that payback, but get it in convincing fashion as well.
New York's defense is deeper and healthier than they were last season when the Panthers ran roughshod over them, and that should help them bottle up Carolina's potent running game.
Cleveland (+3) at TAMPA BAY
I know what you are saying, Cleveland-Tampa Bay...UGGH! And I agree, but someone has to win this game don't they?
The Browns brought in Mike Holmgren to give the organization some direction, and the G-Man believes that at least for this week, Cleveland will find the winning "direction" under new quarterback Jake Delhomme.
Remember, Delhomme is quite used to the Tampa heat from his days as the Carolina signal-caller, and if there is a QB that is in need of some redemtion, Delhomme qualifies. I believe he can get that redemption as his preseason stats show no picks, and a near 80% completion rate.
Tampa is committed to their youth movement, and with any group of younger players you are going to suffer some growing pains. Throw in Tampa's one cover in their last ten home games, and the Brownies are a very "live dog" for the G-Man this opening Sunday.
Take the points.
3? CLEVELAND
Carolina's defense has made a transition towards youth, and Eli Manning should be able to exploit some soft spots in the Panthers secondary. Eli and his mates did start the season last year at 5-0 straight up, and 4-1 against the spread.
The G-Man just doesn't see the Giants losing in this home debut.
Not sure I want to lay any points with the Miami Dolphins this opening Sunday in Orchard Park.
Miami may wind up being the better team when the smoke from the season clears, but on this opening Sunday, I am looking for the Buffalo Bills to stun their division-rival.
Buffalo got some solid work in during the preseason under new coach Chan Gailey, and QB Trent Edwards looks as though he is actually comfortable in his third new system in as many years.
The Dolphins were only favored on the road once all of last season, and that was a 31-14 loss at Buffalo on the 11th game of the season for Miami.
Miami has in fact lost each of their last 5 visits to Buffalo, and with exciting rookie C.J. Spiller set to make a splash in his debut, my money is on the underdog Bills to come through plus the points against the Dolphins.
1? BUFFALO
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