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Re: 10-19-08
kelso
10 bucs
10 pats
5 saints
3 steelers
kelso
10 bucs
10 pats
5 saints
3 steelers
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Re: 10-19-08
Ethan Law
DALLAS (4-2) Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams ST LOUIS (1-4)
The Dallas Cowboys (4-2 SU & 2-4 ATS) have certainly had one of the more controversial and chaotic work weeks for an NFL team in recent memory. The amount of attention generated by the "circus" that is the Dallas Cowboys these days was to say the least phenomenal. The starting point was the Cowboys very hard to swallow overtime loss in Arizona on Sunday. This by itself would have been enough to rattle most Cowboy fans. Then on Monday it was announced that superstar starting quarterback Tony Romo had broken his pinkie finger in that loss and would be out a month. Then Tuesday, just before the trade deadline, the Cowboys made a controversial trade for Detroit Lions wide receiver Roy Williams. Finally, it was announced that cornerback Adam "Pacman" Jones was being suspended for his off-field exploits once again. Wow! Even with all that happening, the circus continues as the Cowboys now say that Romo may actually start something I personally do not think will happen. If Tony Romo does start, the line will most likely be adjusted out-of-whack and at that point this will become a "no play". Oh yeah, did I forget to mention their opponent? The Cowboys are playing the St. Louis Rams (1-4 SU & 2-4 ATS) this Sunday. The Rams are fresh off their surprising upset of the Redskins, a game that Washington gift-wrapped and handed to them.
Let's delve into that Rams win just a bit. Going into that game St. Louis had shown absolutely no signs of life, and were actually considered one of the 2 or 3 worst teams in the NFL. They had not even stayed within 14 points of any of their first 4 opponents. Two (2) blowout losses to the Eagles and Giants were followed up by an embarrassing 37-13 loss at the hands of the injury riddled Seahawks. That win by the way is Seattle's only win to date. Against the Redskins the Rams actually did very little of their own to generate that win. They were out-first downed 22-8. They were out gained 368-200, which included an 181-76 yard deficit on the ground. None of these numbers suggests to me that the Rams should have even stayed with 14 points in this game. Then we look at the 3-1 turnover advantage the Rams held in the game and it becomes a bit more plausible. The Rams offense did not even score an offensive touchdown in that game! Remarkable! Their only foray into the end zone came in the form of a 75 yard fumble return. Of their 4 field goal drives, 2 of them they actually lost yards on! That's right. After getting handed the ball at the 29 and 7 yard lines, they actually went backwards before kicking their field goals! I have laboriously gone over all these tidbits from the Redskins game to prove only one point, the Rams were every bit as bad in that game offensively as they have been all year. In fact, had they not been handed phenomenal field position all day long, they may have actually produced 6 points offensively.
The combination of the Redskins win and the media circus in Dallas does one thing, it creates tremendous line value for us in this game. Had Dallas somehow found a way to win last week and had the Rams not been handed a gift win, the line would be around 13 to 14 points in this game. I also don't mind a bit that Romo will not be the quarterback. Brad Johnson is a veteran QB who owns a Super Bowl ring. He may actually have a calming effect on this team. Tony Romo for all his flash and ability is careless with the football. Brad Johnson needs only guide the ship and limit mistakes for Dallas to win this game easily. My evidence from that win last week, does nothing but convince me further that the Rams are just an awful team that did nothing of their own to earn that win. The Dallas Cowboys are an almost automatic "public favorite" in betting circles. It is very rare that the books do not see 70+% of the action on Dallas games coming in on the Cowboys. Amid the swirl of controversy and turmoil this week, the bettors are staying away from Dallas like the plague. Not only are just 57% of the wagers coming in on the Cowboys, it is also the game on the board receiving the least action! This confirms to me everything I have already believed to be true. When public perception is swayed so far away from reality, that they start doubting their favorite teams to bet on, that is exactly when you MUST bet on them! Take the Cowboys, they should win by 3 touchdowns Sunday.
Verdict: Dallas 28, St. Louis 7
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON DALLAS -7Comment
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Re: 10-19-08
King Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet406 KAN / 405 TEN Over 35.0 BetUS
Analysis: 1:00pm ET / TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
1:00pm ET / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ NY GIANTS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
1:00pm ET / PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
1:00pm ET / New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
4:15pm ET / New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
BEST BET write-ups:
CHIEFS / TITANS: In Poker terms, I would classify this game as 7-card stud ?HIGH / LOW?. You have an undefeated team (HIGH) coming in with the 5-0 Titans. And a 1-4 home team (LOW) in the Chiefs. This game also has one of the lowest OU lines of the week (around 35 points). With BOTH teams coming in with a week of rest, we?ll be slamming the OVER. Reason #1 is BECAUSE of that ?double-rest? angle. In the last 7 years, NFL games have gone 12-4 O/U when BOTH teams come in off thier BYE week. Home DOGS have gone 5-1 O/U... and a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in the last 3 seasons. That week of rest came at the right time for the Chiefs. In their last game, they lost to the Carolina Panthers by a score of 34-0. The shutout loss has them active this week in a very hot current System: NFL teams are a PERFECT 7-0-1 O/U in the last 4 years off a SHUTOUT in which they lost by a score of 28-0 or higher. On the flip side, we have the 5-0 Titans. And if it?s game six, the OVER is the call for these UNDEFEATEDS. Since 2000, GAME SIX teams with a perfect 5-0 SU record are 11-2 O/U... and a PERFECT 10-0 O/U vs any non-div opp. Not only are they 5-0 SU, but they?ve reeled off 5 straight ATS wins as well to start the season. In the last 20 years, OCTOBER non-div road favs who are off 5 SUATS wins in a row are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U. Individual team trends seal the deal: The TITANS are 12-3 O/U as favs w/ rest, 5-0 O/U as non-div RF?s 4 > pts and 7-1 O/U bef Monday. CHIEFS are 4-0 O/U at home w/ rest, 5-1 O/U off a SU L 21 > pts, and 6-0 O/U in Gm 6.
GIANTS / 49ERS: The Giants return home off their shocking Monday night road favorite loss to the Brownies. Teams that lost their first game of the season on the road usually come back with high-scoring results. 9-1 O/U for GAME SIX teams who lost their FIRST game of the year on the road (GIANTS). NFC teams on a short week of practice off a Monday non-conf road game have been solid OVER plays in the last few years. 4-0 O/U in the last 4 years for all NFC teams off a Monday night game against an AFC opponent. Meanwhile, we have the Niners making the l-o-n-g trek east from their Bay area home... and you know what THAT means. TIME ZONE System. This System has continued to generate a profit this year, so let?s do it again: NFL Western time zone teams have gone 21-7 O/U in the last 4 years in Game 7 or less on the road versus an Eastern time zone team. The absolute BEST situations for these teams are 20-5 O/U for all UNDERDOGS... and 9-1 O/U for big dogs of > 7 points (like the NINERS). After winning 2 of their first 3 games, the wheels have come off for San Francisco. They?ve dropped 3 games in a row (SU and ATS) by 9 or more points. That?s actually a good sign for OVER players. 9-1 O/U since 200 for OCTOBER road teams who are playing off 3+ SU and ATS losses in a row. Most applicable team trends also indicate we?re on the right side. The NINERS are 10-1 O/U vs NFC East, 5-1 O/U vs an opp off Monday, and 5-1 O/U off BB HG. The GIANTS are 4-1 O/U off a Monday game and 4-0 O/U as non-div HF?s of 5 > pts.Comment
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Re: 10-19-08
Teddy Covers free play:
Sunday, October 19
Baltimore @ Miami
Recommendation: Take the Dolphins -2.5
Joe Flacco has a long way to go before he can be considered the type of NFL quarterback who is capable of winning games for his team on the road. Flacco got off to a solid start this year in a pair of home games against lesser defenses, where the Ravens running game was strong enough to carry the offense. But once the competition stiffened, Flacco’s numbers and the Ravens results have suffered. During Baltimore’s current three game losing streak, Flacco has taken nine sacks, thrown five interceptions and fumbled four times.
The Ravens offensive line is a banged up, battered and bruised unit right now. Guard Marshall Yanda was placed on IR this week. Tackle Adam Terry is not likely to suit up on Sunday for the second straight week. And the tackle on the other side, Jared Gaither, has been limited in practice all week with a neck problem. With leading rushers Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee banged up as well, it’s looks like Flacco is expected to lead the attack for Baltimore here, behind a suspect offensive line against a quality Dolphins defense. I expect Flacco and his supporting cast to struggle.
The Dolphins have upset New England 38-15 and San Diego 17-10 over the course of their last three games. First year head coach Tony Sparano has proven to be a breath of fresh air for a team that won only one game last year, with his non-conventional offensive approach. Unlike Baltimore, Miami is not struggling to score points these days, hanging 28 on Houston last week, as Chad Pennington threw for 284 yards while Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams moved the chains steadily on the ground all afternoon. Miami is the better team here, making the Dolphins worth a strong look as long as this pointspread stays below a field goal.
Take the Dolphins.Comment
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