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Dr. Bob
NO CAROLINA ST. (-1.5) 28 Cincinnati 26
Over/Under Total: 54.5
04:45 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Sep-16
I didn’t think the coaching change at Cincinnati would have much of an affect on the potent offense, since new coach Butch Jones runs the same offense as predecessor Brian Kelly (and succeeded Kelly at Central Michigan with good success). However, quarterback Zack Collaros, who was sensational last season (75% completions and 10.9 yards per pass play on 125 pass plays), has only completed 60% of his passes for a horrible 3.8 yppp while getting sacked 10 times in two games (only sacked twice last season). Beating Indiana State 40-7 is not a good effort (the Bearcats were favored by 45 ½ points and the Sycamores are one of Division 1AA’s worst teams) and the Bearcats apply to a negative 67-133-2 ATS situation. NC State hasn’t been that impressive either, as out-gaining Western Carolina and UCF 5.1 yards per play to 4.4 yppl is nothing to brag about. The Wolfpack averaged only 3.6 yppl while allowing 4.9 yppl in last week’s lucky 28-21 win over UCF (they were +5 in turnovers and still only won by 7 points), so I’m not eager to back them either. Cincy has more talent but the Bearcats do qualify in that negative situation.
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