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Re: 9-20-10
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN FRANCISCO +6 over New Orleans
We all saw the results yesterday of overreactions to teams that had good and bad starts to open the year. We had overreactions to the Pats, Seahawks, Texans, Ravens, Giants and Tennessee to name a few and there was a definite under-reaction to the Jets after they couldn’t move five yards against the Ravens. Having said that, no team was more disappointing or lifeless than these 49ers in week one when they went into Seattle and got belted 31-6. That score looks even worse after Seattle got lashed in Denver yesterday. This is another under-reaction to a week one score and it works in the 49ers favor. Perhaps they were looking ahead to this home opener, who knows? What we do know is that San Fran was a big favorite to win the NFC West and that they’re loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Alex Smith was putrid in week one but don’t put too much emphasis on that. Mike Singletary is no fool and if he didn’t believe in Smith he would not play him. Smith isn’t Joe Montana but he’s very capable of doing some damage and so, too, is the 49ers defense. The Saints are the Saints and they’re a legit threat to repeat but this isn’t about them, as they need no introductions. What we have here is a favorable spot for the home side. We have a home-pooch on Monday Night Football, which is almost always a ticket that gets cashed and we have the aforementioned under-reaction to the 49ers. So, you can break down the X’s and O’s all you want but that doesn’t work. You’re going to see a different San Fran squad tonight and you’re going to see one that’ll be more prepared and a million times more fired up than they were in its opener. This one has upset written all over it. Play: San Francisco +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Houston +1.22 over WASHINGTON
We’re not saying that Livan Hernandez can’t win this game but putting too much stock into this guy is a risk that should be avoided. On August 27th, the Nats announced that Stephen Strasburg had a significant tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament and was soon to join The Tommy John Club. On August 29th, the Nationals made matters worse when they signed Hernandez to a one-year, $1M contract with additional incentives as GM Mike Rizzo crowed, "We think he has earned it." The surface stats say this isn't a bad idea for the Nationals, but the skill set say otherwise. Hernandez's 3.82 ERA looks like a huge improvement over the last four years until you see that his xERA (4.93), which says "this is the same old ticking time bomb." That BPV (27) says this is a boring "skill set" with a capital "B". To what can we ascribe Livan Hernandez's resurgence in 2010? Whatever it is, it certainly isn't skill. So whatever you do, don't make the same mistake the Washington Nationals just made and invest in this guys arm. If you hadn't already taken notice of Bud Norris you probably did last month when he fanned 14 Pirates over 7 innings - his second double-digit strikeout game of the year. Norris' xERA is more than a run below his actual ERA thanks to a 67% strand rate and the best news is that the Nats have never seen this guy while everyone has seen Hernandez about 1000 times. Play: Houston +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.07 over DETROIT
After his everything-went-right 2009 Cy Young campaign, it was only realistic to expect some regression in Zack Greinke's numbers for 2010. But a near-4.00 ERA and single-digit wins in the middle of September is a little hard to swallow. Still, his great control remains and he's seen an impressive increase in groundball %. If he can maintain the GB gains, it will be another considerable weapon in his arsenal. His three-season **BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page) average is an excellent 110, indicating that yes, Greinke is still a stud starter from a straight-skills perspective and it’s also worth noting the Royals are averaging just under six runs per game over the last eight. Current Royals hitters are batting a combined .303 of Rick Porcello (42-133). They saw him two weeks ago and got to him for four runs in 7 IP. Porcello missed his last start after he aggravated a tendon in his finger and skipping starts is not usually beneficial. Porcello has been pitching better of late for sure. His 5.10 ERA on the year is somewhat misleading given his 50% groundball rate on the year but in no way is he in the same class as Greinke and thus, we’ll look to take advantage. Play: Kansas City +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN FRANCISCO +6 over New Orleans
We all saw the results yesterday of overreactions to teams that had good and bad starts to open the year. We had overreactions to the Pats, Seahawks, Texans, Ravens, Giants and Tennessee to name a few and there was a definite under-reaction to the Jets after they couldn’t move five yards against the Ravens. Having said that, no team was more disappointing or lifeless than these 49ers in week one when they went into Seattle and got belted 31-6. That score looks even worse after Seattle got lashed in Denver yesterday. This is another under-reaction to a week one score and it works in the 49ers favor. Perhaps they were looking ahead to this home opener, who knows? What we do know is that San Fran was a big favorite to win the NFC West and that they’re loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Alex Smith was putrid in week one but don’t put too much emphasis on that. Mike Singletary is no fool and if he didn’t believe in Smith he would not play him. Smith isn’t Joe Montana but he’s very capable of doing some damage and so, too, is the 49ers defense. The Saints are the Saints and they’re a legit threat to repeat but this isn’t about them, as they need no introductions. What we have here is a favorable spot for the home side. We have a home-pooch on Monday Night Football, which is almost always a ticket that gets cashed and we have the aforementioned under-reaction to the 49ers. So, you can break down the X’s and O’s all you want but that doesn’t work. You’re going to see a different San Fran squad tonight and you’re going to see one that’ll be more prepared and a million times more fired up than they were in its opener. This one has upset written all over it. Play: San Francisco +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Houston +1.22 over WASHINGTON
We’re not saying that Livan Hernandez can’t win this game but putting too much stock into this guy is a risk that should be avoided. On August 27th, the Nats announced that Stephen Strasburg had a significant tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament and was soon to join The Tommy John Club. On August 29th, the Nationals made matters worse when they signed Hernandez to a one-year, $1M contract with additional incentives as GM Mike Rizzo crowed, "We think he has earned it." The surface stats say this isn't a bad idea for the Nationals, but the skill set say otherwise. Hernandez's 3.82 ERA looks like a huge improvement over the last four years until you see that his xERA (4.93), which says "this is the same old ticking time bomb." That BPV (27) says this is a boring "skill set" with a capital "B". To what can we ascribe Livan Hernandez's resurgence in 2010? Whatever it is, it certainly isn't skill. So whatever you do, don't make the same mistake the Washington Nationals just made and invest in this guys arm. If you hadn't already taken notice of Bud Norris you probably did last month when he fanned 14 Pirates over 7 innings - his second double-digit strikeout game of the year. Norris' xERA is more than a run below his actual ERA thanks to a 67% strand rate and the best news is that the Nats have never seen this guy while everyone has seen Hernandez about 1000 times. Play: Houston +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.07 over DETROIT
After his everything-went-right 2009 Cy Young campaign, it was only realistic to expect some regression in Zack Greinke's numbers for 2010. But a near-4.00 ERA and single-digit wins in the middle of September is a little hard to swallow. Still, his great control remains and he's seen an impressive increase in groundball %. If he can maintain the GB gains, it will be another considerable weapon in his arsenal. His three-season **BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page) average is an excellent 110, indicating that yes, Greinke is still a stud starter from a straight-skills perspective and it’s also worth noting the Royals are averaging just under six runs per game over the last eight. Current Royals hitters are batting a combined .303 of Rick Porcello (42-133). They saw him two weeks ago and got to him for four runs in 7 IP. Porcello missed his last start after he aggravated a tendon in his finger and skipping starts is not usually beneficial. Porcello has been pitching better of late for sure. His 5.10 ERA on the year is somewhat misleading given his 50% groundball rate on the year but in no way is he in the same class as Greinke and thus, we’ll look to take advantage. Play: Kansas City +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
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