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Bobby Maxwell
Thursday winner...
300-Unit College FB Money Maker - PITTSBURGH PANTHERS
Miami hasn’t been on the field since that ugly Sept. 11 visit to Columbus when the Buckeyes scored a 36-24 win over the Hurricanes with young Miami QB Jacory Harris tossing four INTs in the loss. Now they have to get back on the road and take themselves to Pittsburgh to take on a Pitt squad that has had plenty of controversy this season. Even with the off-field problems, I’m still going to take the Panthers in this one.
The Panthers have had three players arrested and suspended indefinitely and they looked only averaging in their 38-16 win over New Hampshire on Sept. 11. This team came into the season ranked No. 15, then they went to Utah for the opener and lost 27-24 in OT.
Key for Pitt this season, and especially tonight, is sophomore RB Dion Lewis who had 1,799 yards last season, but he’s only run for 102 yards in 35 carries through two games.
Pitt QB Tino Sunseri has 459 yards passing this season with a completion percentage of 64.5. He has the ability to lead this offense, but he’d like to see some help from the running game and he’s like to see the defense step up and have a game.
These two teams haven’t played since they were both in the Big East in 2003. Miami has won six of the last seven meetings, but Pitt has cashed in two of the last three.
Miami is on ATS skids of 3-13 after a bye week, 2-5 against Big East teams and 2-5 after a straight-up loss. Pitt is on surges too, including 7-3 at home, 6-1 after an ATS loss and 12-4 on grass.
At home tonight, look for Pitt to come out strong from the opening gun and deliver a motivated performance. I like the Panthers in front of the home crowd. Play Pitt
60 Dime Release on Pittsburgh as the home dog over Miami (FL). As this play is released at 9 AM Eastern, the Panthers are currently getting 3 1/2 points pretty much everywhere here in Las Vegas and offshore
Does anyone have Kelso's 50 unit plays for today? Thank you.
KELSO
10 UNITS Pittsburgh Pirates -120
15 UNITS Texas Rangers -125
50 UNITS TOTAL PARLAY Pittsburgh/Texas Over
20 UNITS Milwaukee Brewers -159
20 UNITS Arizona Diamondbacks -115
10 units SIDE PARLAY Milwaukee/Arizona
THURSDAY'S WINNERS
20 DIME college football selection on PITTSBURGH plus the points over Miami, Fla,, in a nationally telavised contest from Heinz Field. Pittsburgh is catching between 3 and 4 points depending on where you shop, with the prevailiing number being 3½. Hopefully you have multiple wagering options to get the best number possible, but in any case, I want you to protect your investment by purchasing the half-point regardless of if the number is 3, 3½ or 4 – all of which are obviously key numbers in football.
5 DIME college football selection Pitt-Miami, Fla. UNDER the posted total. The conselsus total in this one is 50 across the board both here in Vegas and offshore.
PITTSBURGH
I’m hardly the world’s biggest Dave Wannstedt fan – like with his old pal Norv Turner (the two were Cowboys coordinators under Jimmy Johnson), it’s never easy to put money on a Wannstedt-coached teams.
That said, who is Miami to be laying points on the road in a nationally televiaed game against an opponent that was on the fringe of the preseason Top 25? The ‘Canes are 10-18 ATS as a favorite since Randy Shannon took over as coach in 2007, and they’ve cashed in just two of their last seven as a road chalk.
The last time Miami hit the highway was 10 days ago when it went to Ohio State and lost 36-24 as an eight-point underdog. No, I’m not saying Pitt is on the level of the Buckeyes – obviously, they’re not. But that doesn’t mean you gloss over the fact that Miami gave up 414 yards of total offense (including letting Terrelle Pryor throw for 233 yards, to go with 113 rushing yards).
Meanwhile, the ‘Canes’ offense got two of its touchdowns on special teams, while the third came in the fourth quarter when Ohio State was playing soft defenisively with a 36-17 lead. Most disturbingly, QB Jacory Harris froze under the bright lights in Columbs, getting picked off four times.
As for Pitt, you may recall that I went against the Panthers on Sept. 2 when they played at Utah. The Panthers fell 27-24 in overtime (pushing as a three-point underdog), but they showed me a lot in rallying from a 24-13 deficit midway through the fourth quarter just to get to overtime. Plus, Utah is a legit Top 20 team that has a 19-game home winning streak. What made Pitt’s performance in Salt Lake City even more impressive was that it had a chance to win despite the fact electrifying running back Dion Lewis never got going (25 carries, 75 yards), and it was the first game for new QB Tino Sunseri.
While Miami has struggled in the role of road favorite, Pitt has been a moneymaker as a home underdog (9-4 ATS since 2007). Additionally, the Panthers have covered in seven of their last nine home games against Division I-A foes, and the Hurricanes are in additional ATS slumps of 2-5 against the Big East teams and 3-13 after a bye week.
Bottom line: The oddsmakers aren’t giving Pitt its due respect. Although the Panthers can’t match Miami athlete-for-athlete, they’re the much more disciplined team. And given Miami’s recent struggles in the road favorite role, plus the unpredictable play of QB Harris, the only way to look is to the motivated home pup.
Miami-Pitt UNDER
If I’m right about Pitt winning (or at least covering) this game, then it will have to do it with a strong defense and a ball-control offense, which would put us on track for a low-scoring contest. I look for the Panthers to put the ball in the hands of their best player (RB Lewis) early and often and put their young QB in high-percentage passing situations.
At the same time, because Harris is coming off such a shaky performance against Ohio State (and being back in a hostile environment again), I can’t imagine Miami coach Shannon will be taking many chances down the field (at least early in this contest.
Six of the last seven meetings between these former conference rivals have stayed under the total (all six less than 50 combined points), and Miami is on “under” runs of 10-4 in marquee Thursday games, 37-16 in non-conferlnce contests and 7-0 when facing the Big East. Pitt has stayed low in 10 of its last 14 home games and 11 of 16 following a bye.
Finally, we’ve had three Thursday night contests the last three weeks – and remember, the total is always inflated in these midweek TV games – and all three have stayed under with combined point totals of 49, 23 and 31 points.
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections Date: Thursday, September 23, 2010
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302 Pittsburgh +3.5 7:45 EST
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections Date: Thursday, September 23, 2010
$20.00 Guaranteed: Our current GUARANTEED WINNING run is 147-79! Today we have isolated another very strong BASEBALL WINNER! This play can only be rated as a INSIDE LATE STEAM MLB BONUS WINNER! You can get this GUARANTEED WINNER Today for just $20 and as always you MUST WIN this game or you will not be charged! Join us for one of our STRONGEST GAMES EVER! 9/23/2010 INSIDE LATE STEAM MLB BONUS WINNER
NY Yankees w/Sabathia -141 7:05 EST
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections Date: Thursday, September 23, 2010
$20.00 Guaranteed: Our current GUARANTEED WINNING run is 147-79! Today we have isolated another very strong BASEBALL WINNER! This play can only be rated as a INSIDE LATE STEAM MLB INFO WINNER! You can get this GUARANTEED WINNER Today for just $20 and as always you MUST WIN this game or you will not be charged! Join us for one of our STRONGEST GAMES EVER! 9/23/2010 INSIDE LATE STEAM MLB INFO WINNER
Milwaukee w/Gallardo -159 8:10 EST
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