9-26-10

[spook]

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[spook]

Re: 9-26-10

Lang on Washington Post Live

St Louis Rams +4
Baltimore Ravens -10
Atlanta Falcons +4.5
Houston Texans -3
Two For the Money: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-10

BEN BURNS

EARLY SHOCKER
Carolina Panthers

NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE WEEK
UNDER Colts-Broncos

SITUATIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR
St Louis Rams

NON-CONFERENCE BEST BET
Seattle Seahawks

BLUE CHIP O/U
10* UNDER SF 49ers/KC Chiefs

TOP DIVISIONAL PLAY
10* Miami Dolphins

[spook]

Re: 9-26-10

Larry Ness' 10* NFL Total of the Month (4-0 w/10*s in NFL)
My 10* NFL Total of the Month is on Det/Min Over at 1:00 ET.

Is Favre done? I must admit that as a fan, I'm enjoying his early season struggles, as the 'soap opera' which has surrounded Favre the last few years has worn me thin. That being said, this is about M-O-N-E-Y and I believe this is a perfect "breakout game" for Favre. Most know that the Lions entered the 2010 season on a 20-game road losing streak. Know how many points the Lions allowed in those losses? How about 32.6 per game! Now Detroit lost just 19-14 in Week 1 at Chicago (should have won, as the call in the end zone going against was BRUTAL) but let's not get too excited about the 19 points the 'D' allowed. Chicago QB Jay Cutler 'torched' the Lions for 372 passing yards in that contest. Last week, Michael Vick looked 25 again, passing for 284 yards (two TDs and no INTs). It was a home game but the Lions allowed 35 points. The LAST place the Lions want to visit this week is the Metrodome. The Vikings are a 'wounded' and ANGRY team. Look what Favre and Peterson accomplished in two meetings vs this Detroit defense in 2009. Favre completed 76.8 percent of his 56 passes without a single INT. Peterson ran fro 225 yards on 6.8 YPC. As for the Lions, don't worry about backup QB Shaun Hill backing down. He was 25-45 for 335 yards (two TDs and two INTs) last weeks vs the Eagles plus rookie RB Jahvid Best had two TDs running (one more receiving) vs the Eagles, giving him five TDs in his first two games as a pro. I see the Vikings racking up 35-plus points and this game easily going over the total.

[spook]

Re: 9-26-10

Larry Ness' 10* LEGEND Play-NFL (2-0 in FB 2010!)
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Ari Cardinals at 4:15 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals may not look any worse the entire season than they do right now, after that embarrassing 41-7 loss to the Falcons last week. While some bettors may be scared off by Arizona now, I think this is a great time to back Ken Whisenhunt's club. Whisenhunt has done a great job in Arizona, leading this club to two straight postseasons (including the Super Bowl following the 2008 season), after the Cards had made just one playoff appearance from 1988 (when the team relocated in Phoenix) through 2007! His team is clearly in transition (particularly on defense) but Whisenhunt still has enough pieces to contend for the NFC West title once again (San Fran's 0-2 start hasn't hurt!). The offense has nice weapons in WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Steven Breaston plus I'm not as sour on QB Derek Anderson as most seem to be. He was a productive 22-41 for 297 yards in the team's Week 1 win at St. Louis (17-13) and I'm not going to 'jump ship' on him after a bad game in Atlanta (I was "all over" the Falcons LW!). RB Tim Hightower topped 100 yards against the Falcons last week and the Cards are averaging 115.0 YPG on the ground after two games, heady territory for a team which has averaged 90.0, 73.6 and 93.4 YPG in Whisenhunt's first three seasons. I'm giving the Cardinals a 'pass' in that Atlanta loss, as the Falcons were primed for a big rebound game in their home opener after that tough OT loss to the Steelers the week before. Arizona walks into a similar position here, as it looks to bounce-back from a road loss with the team's first home game of the 2010 season. I don't like what I am seeing with the Oakland Raiders, which should come as little surprise to anyone. Has coach Tom Cable already hit the panic button by benching QB Jason Campbell for Bruce Gradkowski? Campbell was hailed a savior for this franchise when he was signed as a free agent to provide some veteran leadership at the QB position after the disastrous JeMarcus Russell era was declared over. After just two games, is Campbell really being dumped for the journeyman Gradkowski? While he did bring a fighting spirit into the game when he played last season for the Raiders, Gradkowski still ended the season with a mere 54.4% completion percentage while averaging only 6.9 YPA. If Gradkowski was a capable answer, then why sign Campbell at all? Why is Gradkowski suddenly the more viable QB now? He is completing only 50% of his passes this year while just slightly raising his yards-per-attempt average to 7.4. This smacks of desperation. Internal discord can never be dismissed when discussing the dysfunctional environment of this franchise under owner Al Davis. Oakland does come off a gutty 16-14 win over St Louis last week but on the road the week before in Tennessee, the Raiders fell behind by a 24-6 halftime score, on the way to their 38-14 loss to the Titans. Oakland committed 10 penalties for 77 yards in that loss to Tennessee and followed that up with 12 penalties for 90 yards against the Rams. Oakland is averaging only 15.0 PPG which is right on target with its 12.3 PPG average last year. That '09 mark made Oakland the 31st offense in the NFL in scoring which matches its 31st ranking in total yards (266.1 PPG) as well. The defense was not much better either, as it ranked #23rd in scoring (23.7 PPG) and #26th in yardage (361.9 YPG) in '09. To make matters worse, Oakland currently has seven players listed as questionable for this game including star defensive end Richard Seymour and former first-round pick Robert Gallery at guard. I think that the Oakland team that lost at Tennessee by 24 points is closer to the one we will see on Sunday than the one which beat the lowly Rams last week. Let me close with what I wrote when I used the Titans over these Raiders for my biggest play of Week 1. "The Raiders went to the Super Bowl following the 2002 season (11-5 regular season) but lost 48-21 to the Bucs. The team hasn't won more than five games in ANY of the last seven years, going a combined 29-83 (.259). Oakland went 4-28 on the road (including two, 0-8 seasons) from 2003 through 2006 and has since gone 2-6, 3-5 and 3-5 away from home the last three seasons, respectively. Let's note that Oakland's six road losses in 2007 averaged 16.2 PPG, its five road losses in 2008 came by 16.0 PPG and the team's five road losses in 2009 averaged 19.8 PPG." Well, after that 24-point road loss at Tennessee in Week 1, Oakland's road woes are "right on schedule" for 2010.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-10

Scott Spreitzer

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
Reason: I'm taking the points with the Cowboys on Sunday. We had Houston on these pages in week one and cashed when they knocked off the Colts. We passed in week two, but have to admit being impressed with the spirited comeback and subsequent win against the Redskins. But this puts them in a very tough situation on Sunday, not to mention a talented Dallas team is in desperation-mode. The Cowboys may be the best 0-2 NFL team in a decade. The defense hasn't played badly. In fact, their weakness...the main reason they have lost their first two games, has been due to a lack of success inside the opponents' 30-yard line. But Dallas will have their regulars up front on offense for just the second time this season. Last week, it took some time to generate chemistry normally gained during preseason games. Now, after having played four quarters together, I expect better results for the Cowboys when they cross the 50. And let's not forget that we're talking about a talented Cowboy offense facing a permissable Houston defense. The Texans have allowed a total of 884 yards on 127 plays, an average of 7 yards per play. They've been torched through the air for an average of 430 yards passing per game on 68 of 95 (72%) passing! Houston is giving up 9.04 yards per pass, allowing four passing TDs and they're yet to pick off a pass. That's 65 pass attempts and zero interceptions. Even though the offense has been clicking on all cylinders, I believe Houston is "ripe for the picking." Dallas has outgained their first two opponents, 790-558, and they have 16 more first downs than they have allowed. The Cowboys have been an outstanding September dog, and I believe they're finally going to put it all together and gain their first win of the season. I'm taking the points with the Cowboys my 10* Road Warrior Game of the Month. Thanks! GL! Scott.

[spook]

Re: 9-26-10

NESS

Legend Play ( 2-0 NFL ): ARIZONA
Totals Play ( 4-0 NFL ): Detroit/Minnesota OVER
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-10

Brandon Lang

40 Dime NFL Sunday Blowout on the Cinci Bengals -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-10

Ness 27* mlb--yanks

[fsiler]

Re: 9-26-10

Does anyone have Root? Thanks

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-10

Does anyone have Root? Thanks

root nfl
tv game miami
fav of week ari
mill jax
bill den
no limit tampa bay
pinnacle minny

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-10

BRANDON LANG

St Louis Rams +4
Baltimore Ravens -10
Atlanta Falcons +4.5
Houston Texans -3
Two For the Money: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

[fsiler]

Re: 9-26-10

Does anyone have Root? Thanks

root nfl
tv game miami
fav of week ari
mill jax
bill den
no limit tampa bay
pinnacle minny

Thanks!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-10

BIG AL's 98-56 ATS NFL CHAMPIONSHIP CLUB WINNER!
Our Selection: Cowboys Opponent: Texans Line: +3
Analysis: At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Houston. The Cowboys are probably one of the best 0-2 teams in NFL history. After all, they outgained the Redskins in Week 1 380 yards to 250. And then also outgained Chicago last week 410 yards to 308. In contrast, the Texans are 2-0, yet were outgained by the Colts in Week 1 463 yards to 355! Here, the Cowboys fall into a great bounce-back situation, as Dallas was upset last week as a 7-point home favorite. They've been installed here as a 3-point road underdog, and now fall into 53-17 and 98-56 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 98-56 ATS angle. What we want to do is play on any Road Dog of +3 or more points, which is off an ATS loss as a fave of -7 or more, and is now matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS win. Take Dallas + the points over Houston. NFL Championship Club play on the Cowboys.

BIG AL's 83% ATS NFL ROADKILL WINNER; 41-17 L3 YRS
Our Selection: Buccaneers Opponent: Steelers Line: +3
Analysis: At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs + the points over Pittsburgh. The Steelers come into this game off back to back upset wins over Atlanta and Tennessee, but will be hard-pressed to make it to 3-0 this afternoon. The Steelers received a blow when starting QB Dennis Dixon was injured last week, so now they will turn to veteran Charlie Batch to lead them. Needless to say, I'm not a huge fan of Mr. Batch. And, even worse for the Black and Gold, they fall into a dismal situation today off their 2 upset wins. Consider that unrested road teams off 2 upsets are a poor 28-57 ATS vs. non-division foes, provided our 'play-against' team is NOT getting more than 7 points, including an awful 3-15 ATS when favored by more than 2 points. NFL Roadkill on Tampa Bay.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-10

Dr. Bob

NFL Best Bet Sides
3 Star Selection
Washington (-3.5) 27 ST. LOUIS 14
26-Sep-10 01:05 PM Pacific Time
The Rams are still the Rams, which means that beating a decent team is not something they’re likely to do (unless they’re coming off a bye week). In fact, St. Louis is just 5-27-1 ATS in their last 33 games, not off a bye, when facing a team that does not have a losing record. They’re just 2-31 straight up in those games and I certainly don’t mind taking my chances with a better than average Redskins team. Washington has played pretty evenly (5.9 yards per play to 6.0 yppl) with two good teams (Dallas and Houston) while the Rams have been out-gained 4.1 yppl to 5.6 yppl by a mediocre Arizona team and a still bad Raiders team. Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford may eventually be a very good quarterback but he is just a rookie averaging a pathetic 4.4 yards per pass play thanks to a bad receiving corps and a bad offensive line. The Rams’ defense has been run over for 5.0 ypr and their pass defense is still worse than average (allowing 6.1 yards per pass play to Arizona and Oakland is not good). Redskins’ quarterback Donavan McNabb struggled on opening night against a good Dallas pass defense, but he’s now averaging 7.6 yppp with zero interceptions (he’s among the best all time in lowest interception percentage) and should have another good game today. My ratings favor Washington by 11 points in this game and the Redskins apply to a 33-14-2 ATS game 3 road opener angle (road teams are good bets after starting the season with 2 home games) while the Rams apply to a negative 8-28-1 ATS game 3 angle that plays against winless teams. I’ll take Washington in a 3-Star Best Bet at-4 or less and for 2-Stars from -4 ½ to -6 points.
2 Star Selection
Philadelphia (-2.5) 26 JACKSONVILLE 16
26-Sep-10 01:05 PM Pacific Time
The Eagles let me down last week by going into a prevent defense with 4 minutes left in the game and turning an 18 point lead into a 3 point win at Detroit. I’ll be back on Philly this week against a defenseless Jaguars team that has given up 420 yards at 7.0 yards per play in games against Denver and San Diego. The Jags had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last year and they could be worse this season, having allowed 9.1 yards per pass play in their first two games. Michael Vick is throwing the ball about as well as I expected, as his 6.2 yards per pass play has come against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback (his career rating is 0.7 yppp worse than average), but he’s not making bad throws (zero interceptions) and his running more than makes up for his sub-par passing numbers. Vick should post good numbers against a bad Jacksonville pass defense and the Eagles are running the ball well with Vick and LaSean McCoy (7.0 ypr as a team this year) – although I don’t expect McCoy to continue to average 6.7 ypr (his career average is 4.45 ypr). Jacksonville has an offense that is 0.2 yppl better than average but Philly’s defense is solid and I don’t expect the Jags to be able to keep up with what their defense allows. My ratings actually only favor the Eagles by 3 ½ points (by 5 ½ using this year’s stats only), but the Eagles apply to a very good 111-43-4 ATS statistical match up indicator as well as a 27-4 ATS game 3 situation. This game also applies to a 60-26 UNDER angle, which is why I have the game lower scoring than the 47 points that my ratings project. I’ll take Philadelphia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or better (at -125 odds or better).
NFL Strong Opinions
Tennessee (+3) 19 NY GIANTS 17
26-Sep-10 10:00 AM Pacific Time
The Titans beat themselves last week in Pittsburgh, losing 7 turnovers on offense and losing on the scoreboard 11-19. Tennessee only averaged 4.0 yards per play, but their defense held Pittsburgh to just 127 total yards and 2.4 yppl and that unit has yielded just 3.5 yppl in the first two games. New York has out-gained the Panthers and Colts by a combined 5.4 yppl to 5.0 yppl, dominating Carolina and getting dominated by Indy, but overall they’re playing about the level I thought they’d play. The Titans, meanwhile, are better defensively than I thought they’d be and my ratings favor the Giants by just 1 point in this game. Tennessee also applies to a solid 33-14-2 ATS road opener angle, as road teams in week 3 that played their first two games at home have historically been good bets, especially against a team coming off a loss. I like the Titans plus the points in this game and I also like the Under based on a 60-26 ATS Under angle. I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.