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Re: 9-27-10
GARCIA COVERS
Green Bay
Green Bay/Chicago Over
GARCIA COVERS
Green Bay
Green Bay/Chicago Over
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Re: 9-27-10
SuperSportsGroup MLB - 9/27
Detroit v. Cleveland 7:05pm
PICK: Tigers ML +114 Game
Baltimore v. Tampa Bay 7:05pm
PICK: Rays RL (-1.5) +120 Game
Boston v. Chicago 8:10pm
PICK: White Sox ML +110 Game Best bet of the day
Pittsburgh v. St Louis 8:15pm
PICK: Cards RL (-1.5) Game +135Comment
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Re: 9-27-10
Jeff Benton
Monday Night Winner #4 in a Row ...
20 DIME NFL selaction on the BEARS plus the points vs. the Packers in a battle of NFC North rivals. Currently, Chicago is a 3-point home underdog pretty much across the board, so let’s manipiulate the odds in our favor and pay a little extra to buy up the half point and grab the Bears at +3½. It’s a prudent investlent on your part, because if this game lands on 3, we’ll get a win rather than a push.
BEARS
I’m sure all my colleagues who back the Packers today will quote the following stats:
The Packers are on spread-covering runs 35-17-2 overall, 21-8-1 on the road, 6-1-1 as a favorite, 10-3 in divisional games and 11-5 as a road favorite of three points or less, while the Bears are in ATS slumps of 3-8 overall, 1-5 at home, 7-18-2 against winning teams, 3-8 against divisional rivals and 3-11 as an underdog. And Green Bay has taken three of four from Chicago the last two years (going 4-0 ATS).
Can’t argue with any of those numbers, because they’re all 100 percent true … and 100 percent meaningless. Why are they meaningless? Because this is a three-point spread we’re dealing with, which pretty much means whatever team covers the spread almost certainly will win the game.
Clearly, I believe Chicago has a great chance to win this game outright – and if not for some crappy take-back odds, I’d have a small money-line play on the Bears.
So why am I believing in Chicago here? Three reasons:
1) Green Bay, which lost RB Ryan Grant to a season-ending ankle injury in Week 1, does not have a reliable running back – or at least a running back that the Bears fear. The Packers could get away with being one-dimensianal offensively against the Eagles and Bills (their first two opponents that have subpar defenses). I don’t see them getting away with it tonight against Chicago, which has forced three turnovers in each of its two games while allowing a total of 34 points (7 of which came on a punt return) against the explosive Lions and Cowboys.
2) Hate when I have to admit that I’m wrong, but it looks like I indeed was about the Jay Cutler/Mike Martz marriage. The Bears are averaging 385.5 total yards per game, including 316 through the air, with Cutler connecting on nearly 70 percent of his throws for 649 yards with a 5-1 TD-to-INT ratio (this is the guy who led the NFL with 26 interceptions last year, more than both rookies Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. Six of Cutler’s picks game in two games against Green Bay, which Chicago lost by six and seven points.
Obviously, two games do not a season make, but Cutler (whose 121.2 QB rating) looks like an entirely different guy. And I know the stats show the Bears have less of a running game than Green Bay, but that’s because in Martz’s offense, Chicago gets the ball to its RBs (namely Matt Forte) through screens and short passes rather than traditional hand-offs. And Forte has been tremiendous in two games. Know this, too: The only quality QB that Green Bay has faced in the first two weeks was Mike Vick, who came off the bench in Week 1 and picked apart the Packers with his arm (175 passing yards) and legs (101 rushing yards) in a little more than two quarters!
3) Finally, home underdogs have been hitting more than missing so far this NFL season (including the 49ers getting the cover against the Saints last Monday night). True, home ‘dogs went just 3-4 SU and ATS on Sunday, but look at the four home ‘dogs that failed to produce: Jacksonville (vs. Philly); Carolina (vs. Cincinnati); Tampa Bay (vs. Pittsburgh); and Denver (vs. Indy). I don’t think it takes an NFL savant to figure out the Bears are vastly superior to the Jaguars, Panthers, Buccaneers and Broncos, whose quartelbacks are David Garrard, Jimmy Clausen, Josh Freeman and Kyle Orton, respectively!
Bottom line: I’m a BIG fan of the Packers – I used them as my free selection last Sunday when they destroyed the Bills – and I truly believe they’re a Super Bowl caliber squad. But the Bears showed me in last week’s 27-20 win at Dallas that they’re much better than the experts (and myself!) thought they’d be. This will be the Packers’ toughest challenge by far, and I simply don’t trust them to be laying points on the road in a rivalry game on Monday night – not when they don’t have a running game, and not when Cutler and the Bears are hell-bent on revenge aComment
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