Tweet
Re: 9-29-10
BA Sports / Bob Akmens
Under 9 / Baltimore and Tampa Bay
BA Sports / Bob Akmens
Under 9 / Baltimore and Tampa Bay
-
Re: 9-29-10
Jeff Benton
WEDNESDAY'S ACTION
20 DIME baseball selection on the DETROIT TIGERS (-1 ½ runs) on the run-line over the Indians in GAME 2 of a doubleheader. As I go live with this play, Detroit is catahing a small underdog price on the run line of about +105. Both starting pitchers are always lisited with run-line plays, so Detroit’s Justin Verlander and Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin must start this game or this play is VOID!
5 DIME baseball selection on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS over the Yankees. As I go live with this play, Toronto is a -115 to -120 home favlrite. Note that you must list both New York’s Javier Vazquez and Toronto’s Brett Cecil as starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID.
TIGERS (-1 ½ runs) – NOTE: This play is on Detroit in the second game of a doubleheader!
Love me some Justin Verlander in the nightcap of this doubleheader in Cleveland!
The Detroit ace enters tonight at 18-8 with a 3.31 ERA and with a victory here he’ll match his career high in wins. Verlander has been a stud down the stretch, going 5-0 with a 1.96 ERA in seven starts since mid-August (Detroit won six of the seven, including the last five in a row). Ironically, Verlander’s streak started with an 8-1 win over these Indians back on Aug. 22, when he gave up just the single run on seven hits in eight innings.
Since the start of last season, Verlander has led the Tigers to seven wins in eight starts against the Indians, alaowing a total of 16 runs in 55 innings (2.62 ERA). Six of those 16 runs allowed came back in his second start of the season in early April, so if you remove that contest, Verlander has a 1.80 ERA in his seven other starts against the Indians the last two seasons. Also, over this two-year stretch, the right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in four starts at Cleveland.
Back to Verlander’s most recent run of success: In his last seven trips to the mound, he’s not only posted a sub-2.00 ERA, but he’s logged 57 strikeouts against just seven walks in 55 innings, and he’s pitched at least eight innings in five of the seven games. That includes back-to-back complete games in his last two outings, a 6-3 win in Chicago and a 10-1 home win over Minnesota.
Now, I recognize that this rivalry has been controlled by the home team this year – the host has won 14 of 16, including the last 10 in a row. But one of the visitor’s triuimphs was Detroit’s 6-4 victory behind Verlander on May 8. That’s part of the Tigers’ 23-10 record in their last 33 meetings with the Indians.
I also recognize that Cleveland rookie right-hander Josh Tomlin (5-4, 4.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP has been pretty solid). However, Tomlin’s second-worst start of the season came in Detroit on Aug. 21, when he surrendered five runs in six innings of a 5-2 road loss. Since that defeat, Tomlin has given up 3, 3, 3, 3, 6 and 3 runs in his ensuing six starts. But he faced the crappy Royals in three of those six games; he faced the weak-hitting Angels twice; and he matched up against the worst offensive team in baseball (Seattle).
Finally, it’s hard to quibble with these trends: Detroit has won eight of its last 10 overall (batting an even .300 as a team during this surge), 21 of 28 within the divisaon, 43 of Verlander’s last 64 starts overall and 20 of his last 26 starts against the A.L. Central. And while the Indians did enter this doubleheader on a four-game winning streak, you have to go back to a six-game winning streak two full months ago for the last time Cleveland strung together this many wins. In fact, the Indians have just two winning streaks longer than four games all season.
Add it all up and this has all the makings of a dominant Verlander performance and an easy Tigers win (by the way, 12 of the 16 Cleveland-Detroit clashes this year have been decided by multiple runs, and Verlander’s last four wins have come by margins of 9-1, 6-2, 6-3 and 10-1).
BLUE JAYS
One day after sending CC Sabathia to the Rogers Centre mound, the Yankees are handing the ball to Javier Vazquez. You talk about a serious drop in talent! Sabathia improved to 21-7 and dropped his ERA to 3.18 with last night’s dominating 6-1 victory (which allowed me to cash my 40 Dime MLB Mismatch of the Year and allowed the Yankees to punch their postseason ticket).
Now New York turns to Vazquez, who is 10-9 with a 5.07 ERA with zero quality outings in his last seven starts dating to the end of July. If that’s enough of a reason to go against the Yankees, this is: Manager Joe Girardi will probably be surrounding Vazquez with B-level talent, as he likely will give guys like Jeter, A-Rod, Cano, Swisher, Posada and/or Teixeira the day off after last night’s clincher.
Well, Vazquez is going to need all the offensive support he can get. Going back to July 31, he’s given up 31 runs (28 earned) in seven starts covering 32 2/3 innings – that’s a 7.71 ERA. Over these 32 2/3 innings, the veteran right-hander has served up 10 home runs, and only once over these seven starts has he lasted longer than 5 1/3 innings.
That includes a 4 2/3-inning stint against the Blue Jays on Sept. 4, when Vazquez gave up five runs on four hits (two home runs) and four walks. Yes, the Yankees bailed him out in a 7-5 home victory, but that’s when they fielded a loaded lineup, something I doubt they’ll do tonight.
Just so you don’t think this is solely a play against Vazquez and the Yankees, allow me to mention what Toronto lefty Brett Cecil has done in four starts against New York this season: 3-0, 2.22 ERA, with the Blue Jays winning all four games (two at home, two on the road). NONE of those games was even close – Toronto won by scores of 6-1, 6-1, 6-3 and 7-3 – and Cecil outdueled pitchers (Phil Hughes twice, A.J. Burnett twice) who have much better stuff than Vazquez.
Cecil is 14-7 on the season, and Toronto has won five of his last seven starts. You know how many runs the Blue Jays scored in those seven contests? 56! Now the Jays – whose 244 home runs lead the majors by a mile – face Vazquez, who has been taken deep 29 times in 152 2/3 innings.
Given all this, how in the world is Toronto be such a short home favorite here? I don’t have a logical answer, but I’ll certainly take advantage of the oddsmakers’ mistake.Comment
-
Re: 9-29-10
JASON JOHNSON
Yankees at Blue Jays
Pick: Blue Jays +110
Vazquez has spent most of the season in the rotation, but has shuffled between starting and relief duty since late August - his last two appearances have been out of the bullpen. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last seven starts, and hasn't pitched through the sixth inning since July 31.
He is 5-7 with a 4.22 ERA in 17 appearances - 16 starts - versus Toronto.
Toronto will counter with Brett Cecil (14-7, 4.20), the staff wins leader. Cecil is 3-0 over his last four starts, including a 7-3 win at Yankee Stadium on Sept 5 in which he allowed three runs over 6 1-3 innings.Comment
-
Re: 9-29-10
FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
100* Play Tampa Bay (-200) over Baltimore
Baltimore has lost 30 of the last 36 road games when playing on a Wednesday and they have also lost 45 of the last 59 games when playing on artificial turf. Kevin Millwood is 2-9 in road games this season with an ERA of 5.52 and he also has an ERA of 5.88 vs. Tampa Bay over his career.
50* Play Atlanta (-220) over Florida
Atlanta has won 24 of the last 31 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and they have also won 11 of the last 13 games with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over the last 20 games. Florida pitcher, Andrew Miller has lost 9 of the last 12 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season and he is 0-3 over the last 3 overall starts with an ERA of 11.82.Comment
-
Re: 9-29-10
SPORTS 'N' PROFITS
1 UNIT* Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians over 7 1/2
1 UNIT* San Francisco Giants - 1 1/2 (+110) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
1 UNIT* San Diego Padres -133 vs. Chicago Cubs
1 UNIT* Tampa Bay Rays - 1 1/2 (-105) vs. Baltimore OriolesComment
-
Re: 9-29-10
HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-September 29th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[921] Detroit |10*|-140|B+0|Network N/A|7:05 pm ESTComment
Comment