10-2-10

**Mr. IWS** · 10-01-2010, 09:20 AM

Re: 10-2-10

Dr. Bob

Best Bets
#105 Texas (+3 1/2) 3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars at less than +3.
#124 Maryland (-7 1/2) 2-Stars at -9 or less, 3-Stars at -7.
#127 Temple (-5) 2-Stars at -6 1/2 or less, 3-Stars at -4.
#138 Baylor (-9) 2-Stars at -10 or less, 3-Stars at -7.
#163 Arizona State (+3 1/2) 2-Stars as an underdog.
#172 Alabama (-7 1/2) 2-Stars at -9 or less, 3-Stars at -7.
#188 Hawaii (-8) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -11.

Strong Opinions
#112 Central Michigan (-17 1/2) Strong Opinion at -19 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -17.
#122 North Carolina (-13) Strong Opinion at -14 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -11.
#125-126 Tulane-Rutgers UNDER (43) Strong Opinion Under 41 or higher.
#129 Georgia Tech (-10) Strong Opinion at -10 or less.
#141 Idaho (-3) Strong Opinion at -3 or less.
#178 USC (-10) Strong Opinion at -11 or less.
#198 South Florida (-21) Strong Opinion at -21 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -20 or less.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-01-2010, 11:56 AM

Re: 10-2-10

Ben Burns

DUKE (+7 or better)

Game: Duke vs. Maryland Game Time: 10/2/2010 6:00:00 PM Prediction: Duke Reason: I'm playing on DUKE. This line has climbed from its opener. I believe that provides us with plenty of value on the visitors. One of the reasons that the Terrapins are laying more than a touchdown is because they boast a 3-1 record. However, I believe that those three wins need to be "taken with a grain of salt." The Terps' last victory came at home, against a winless and relatively weak Florida International squad. Sure, Maryland ended up winning by 14. However, a closer look reveals that the game was tied late in the third quarter and that FIU actually had a commanding 28-15 edge in first downs, for the game. Overall, the Golden Panthers outgained the Terps by a 472-419 margin. Prior to that, Maryland lost by double-digits at West Virginia - no real shame in that. (I played against the Terps in that one.) Before that, their two wins came against 1-AA Morgan State and against Navy. Beating Navy (17-14) was somewhat impressive. However, the Midshipmen aren't as strong this season and the Terps were outgained in that one by a whopping 485-272 margin. In other words, one could argue that the Terps are rather fortunate to be 3-1. In three games against 1-A opponents, they've given up 485, 469 and 482 yards, getting victimized both through the air and on the ground. Admittedly, the Blue Devils have been less impressive. They're 1-3 and the lone win came vs. 1-AA Elon. While the Duke defense has definitely struggled, the offense has shown an ability to move the ball and score points. The Blue Devils are averaging better than 30 points per game and more than 425 yards per game. The Blue Devils lone road game, at Wake Forest, came down to the Wire. Duke led much of the way, eventually losing by six. Counting that one as an ATS loss (it landed right near the number and could have been considered a push) the Blue Devils are still a respectable 7-5 ATS on the road the past 2+ seasons, including 3-2 ATS as road underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. Note that they were a solid 4-2-1 ATS in October, during that stretch. Even counting last week's somewhat fortunate cover, the Terps are still just 3-5 ATS as favorites, the past 2+ seasons. The Blue Devils won last year's meeting by a score of 17-13. They outgained the Terps by a 394-249 margin. I expect the Blue Devils to give them all they can handle again here. *8
LA TECH (+7 or better)

Game: Louisiana Tech vs. Hawaii Game Time: 10/2/2010 11:30:00 PM Prediction: Louisiana Tech Reason: I'm playing on LA TECH. The majority of the betting public is likely going to favor Hawaii in this one. After all, the Warriors are at home and are coming off a 66-7 victory. LA Tech, on the other hand, is off three straight losses and is playing on the road. Those results will have most believing that Hawaii is the far superior team in this matchup. That perception has allowed us to be able to get more than a touchdown with the visiting Bulldogs. I feel that provides excellent value. Yes, Hawaii won huge last week. However, that was against "Charleston Southern" and the Warriors were laying -32 points. The "Buccaneers" had previously faced teams like Mars Hill and North Greenville (they also lost by double-digits to Wofford) and were playing their first road game. So, the Warriors blowout needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Hawaii's other games resulted in double-digit losses vs. USC and at Colorado and a very close 3-point win over Army. As usual, the Warriors passing attack appears to be in good shape. They don't have a running game though, and having a one-dimensional attack may prove to be less effective in conference play. LA Tech's 3-game losing streak isn't quite as bad as it seems, as the Bulldogs were underdogs in all three games. Last week, the Bulldogs were facing a solid Southern Miss. team. They lost - but only by one point. The previous losses came vs. Navy and at Texas A@M, also both solid programs. Now, they begin conference play and are excited about getting a "fresh start." While they have a new coach, this was expected to be an improved LA Tech team this season. They've got a few games against decent opponents to get used to the new spread offense (Coach Sykes who has previously had jobs at Arizona and Texas Tech is considered a "spread expert") and a porous Hawaii defense (108 points allowed in 3 games vs. 1-A teams) figures to "just the ticket" to have a breakout game against. As for the defense, the Bulldogs retained their defensive coordinator (Tommy Spangler has seen the Bulldog defense improve from a yards standpoint in three straight seasons) and the 13 points allowed last week shows that they're capable of playing well on that side of the ball. Even with a cover last week, I really feel that this LA Tech is still flying under the radar. Note that the Bulldogs were arguably stronger than last season's 4-8 record indicated as they actually outgained WAC opponents by an average of 27.9 yards per game. While the Warriors were admittedly distracted by a "tsunami," note that the Bulldogs beat them convincingly last season, delivering a 27-6 beatdown. The previous season, at Hawaii, the Bulldogs lost by 10. In 2007, I had my "WAC Game of the Year" on LA Tech as a 4-touchdown underdog. The Bulldogs took Hawaii to overtime and lost by only one point. In other words, they've played the Warriors pretty tough the past few seasons. While both teams are 8-8 SU in conference play the past two seasons, the Bulldogs were 10-5-1 ATS while the Warriors were 8-7-1 ATS. Note that the Bulldogs are 6-1-1 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range and 6-0-1 ATS the last seven times that they were off two or more consecutive losses. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *8
UNLV (+17 or better)

Game: Nevada vs. UNLV Game Time: 10/2/2010 10:00:00 PM Prediction: UNLV Reason: I'm playing on UNLV. The Wolfpack check in at 4-0, all four wins coming by double-digits. I had them in their big win over California, so I'm well aware of how good they are. That said, I feel that they're lines are starting to become inflated and that this will prove to be a tough spot for them to be laying such a big number. The Wolfpack followed up their big win over California by traveling to BYU and knocking off the Cougars by double-digits. Off those two impressive victories, the players could easily be starting to pat themselves on the back a bit here. True, the Wolfpack have dominated the Rebels in recent seasons. Consider that UNLV was a -3.5 point favorite the last time that these teams met here though, in the fall of 2008. Now, we've got a shift of greater than three touchdowns. Granted, Nevada has gotten stronger. However, that's a rather massive swing, particularly given that UNLV is also arguably stronger. The Rebels lost their first game by 20 points - that was vs. Wisconsin though - a team with a higher ranking than Nevada. They also lost their next two games. However, they were both on the road. Last time out, they returned home and absolutely dismantled New Mexico, winning by a score of 45-10. Senior quarterback Omar Clayton threw three touchdown passes while the Rebels also rushed for a season-high 185 yards. Now, playing their second straight home game, the Rebels should have gained some much needed confidence. Keep in mind that this team, which has a veteran QB and defense, returned 15 starters. Including the narrow cover vs. Wisconsin in Week 1, the Rebels are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +17.5 to +21 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *8
OREGON (-7 or better)

Game: Stanford vs. Oregon Game Time: 10/2/2010 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Oregon Reason: I'm playing on OREGON. I really respect the Cardinal. They're a strong well-coached team with a great QB. They've also gotten off to an excellent start to the season. I even won with them when they upset the Ducks last season. That was a terrific scheduling spot for the Cardinal though. For starters, they were under-valued, as many still didn't realize how good they were. Indeed, despite playing at home, they were getting +6.5 or +7 points. Not only were the Cardinal playing at home, they were also coming off a bye. Additionally, they were catching Oregon off an upset win over USC. Indeed, as I said, it was a terrific "setup" for Stanford. This year figures to be much different. We know how good Oregon was last season. The 2010 version could well be better. Last year's team returned only nine starters. This year's team returned a whopping 17. In going 4-0, the Ducks have destroyed their opponents by an average score of 57.7 to 11. That includes road games at venues like Arizona State and Tennessee. Last year, the Ducks may have overlooked Stanford. Having lost that game, they surely won't make the same mistake here. Indeed, both teams know that this game ranks among the most important games of the year. The Cardinal are 1-2 SU/ATS the last three times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. During the same stretch, the Ducks are 2-0 SU/ATS as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. The Cardinal are 3-4 SU/ATS in October the past few seasons. The Ducks are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in October. Last year, as mentioned, Stanford had the advantage of playing at home and coming off a bye. No such luck this season. Not only are the Cardinal on the road - but they also played on the road last week, a nationally televised affair at Notre Dame. Give them credit for playing very well in that game. However, the Cardinal have not performed well when playing the second of back to back road games. Stanford played back to back road games twice in 2006. After playing at UCLA, they proceeded to lose by 21 vs. Notre Dame. Also, after playing at Oregon, the Cardinal lost outright (as -9.5 point favorites) to San Jose State. In 2007, the Cardinal played b2b road games just once. After winning at Arizona in the first leg of the "road trip," they lost by 17 at Oregon State when playing their second straight away from home. In 2008, the Cardinal were 0-2 SU/ATS when playing the second of back to back road games, losing by 17 and 7 points. True, the Cardinal are better now than they were then. Stanford was pretty good last season too though - and the Cardinal were still 0-2 when playing the second of back to back road games. They lost at Wake Forest and also at Arizona. Lets see, that 0-7 SU the last seven times that the Cardinal played the second of b2b road games. While they lost at Stanford last season, the Ducks are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the last four times that they hosted the Cardinal. They won all four games by a minimum of a touchdown and by an average of 26.75 points. Playing with 'revenge' and with much on the line, I expect another convincing win and cover. *10
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UTAH STATE (+4 or better)

Game: BYU vs. Utah St. Game Time: 10/1/2010 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Utah St. Reason: I'm playing on UTAH STATE. The Cougars have dominated this "rivalry" in recent years. This year's BYU team isn't as good though. I expect the Aggies, who I believe to be much improved, to give their instate guests all they can handle. Both teams have played fairly difficult schedules and both come in at 1-3. The Cougars began their campaign with a solid 6-point home win vs. Washington. They've lost each of their last three games by double-digits though. In fact, all three losses came by at least two touchdowns and they came by an average of 19.67 points. Note that BYU suffered fairly heavy offseason losses, including QB Max Hall. Overall, the Cougars returned only 12 starters. The Aggies did get blown out at San Diego State last week. They played Fresno State fairly tough in their most recent home game though. That game was tied at halftime and also entering the fourth quarter. The Aggies easily won their other home game, a blowout vs. a weak Idaho State program. More impressive, however, was the way they played Oklahoma. Indeed, this team actually outgained the Sooners and lost by only seven points, at Oklahoma. Unlike BYU, the Aggies could be considered an 'experienced team,' as they brought back 16 starters from last season's team. While the Cougars no longer have Max Hall, the Aggies bring back QB Diondre Borel. You may recall that Borel was 20 of 28 for 213 yards at BYU last year. True, BYU has dominated the series from a SU standpoint. That doesn't mean that the Aggies don't "get up" for these games though. Last year, at BYU, (when the Cougars were ranked #20 in the country) covered the spread, as they also did here in 2008, that time against a BYU team which was ranked #8 in the country. The Cougars are just 1-6 ATS their last seven games against teams with a winning record and only 7-12 ATS the last 19 times that they were laying points. During the same stretch, the Aggies are 12-7-1 ATS when getting points. Note that they're also an outstanding 7-2 ATS when coming off back to back SU losses. The Aggies know that they went on the road and played the Cougars tough (at least for 3 quarters) last season. That should give them added confidence to believe that they can actually beat them here at home, particularly as they know BYU isn't as strong this season and as they feel that they are stronger. Going on the road and giving the Sooners all they could handle was great. However, beating BYU, in front of the home fans and a National TV audience would be even sweeter. They've had this game circled and I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. *9

**Mr. IWS** · 10-02-2010, 06:35 AM

Re: 10-2-10

PPP

5-mich, 4-navy, iowa, 3-nd

**Mr. IWS** · 10-02-2010, 07:08 AM

Re: 10-2-10

Ness club 80 play
Navy+points

**Mr. IWS** · 10-02-2010, 07:43 AM

Re: 10-2-10

BIG AL MCMORDIE

NCAA FOOTBALL RIVALRY GAME OF THE MONTH!!

Our Selection: Texas Opponent: Oklahoma Line: +4

Analysis: At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over Oklahoma. Last week, Mack Brown's men inexplicably lost at home to UCLA, though perhaps they were caught looking ahead to this game -- the annual Red River Rivalry game -- vs. the Sooners. And Texas has owned this series of late, going 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS the past five seasons. Also, off its loss to UCLA, the Longhorns now fall into an awesome 90-29 ATS system of mine that plays on certain underdogs of +3 or more points, in conference games, off an upset loss in which they were favored by -7 or more points. For all of the media attention on Texas for its 34-12 loss last week (granted, it was the worst home defeat under coach Brown), the Sooners really haven't been much more impressive this year. After all, Oklahoma was favored by 35 vs. Utah St, yet won by just seven. Then, in their 3rd game, the Sooners barely defeated the Air Force, winning 27-24 as a 17-point favorite. Finally, last week, Oklahoma nipped Cincinnati 31-29, as a 14-point chalk. Thus, each of Texas and Oklahoma has had just one impressive game thus far: The Longhorns went into Lubbock and defeated Texas Tech 24-14, while the Sooners handled Florida State 47-17 at home in Norman. Last week, the 'Horns turned the ball over five times (to UCLA's two), but Texas is an impressive 29-13 ATS since 1992 off a game in which it had two more turnovers than its foe. Grab the points with the Longhorns. Rivalry Game of the Month on Texas.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-02-2010, 09:06 AM

Re: 10-2-10

Brandon Lang

Big Play on Oregon State -3'

**Mr. IWS** · 10-02-2010, 10:16 AM

Re: 10-2-10

I gotta leave for a bit. Would be really appreciated if someone could keep posting whatever they come across for a couple hours.

**Chokebettor247** · 10-02-2010, 10:21 AM

Re: 10-2-10

Anyone have Root's October fest Upset Club plays or are they all the same as the Bill Mill No Lim or Pinnacle?

**hipp83** · 10-02-2010, 11:41 AM

Re: 10-2-10

Root

Millionaire Texas
Billionaire Miss St
No Limit Iowa St
Pinnacle Washington
Perfect Play Oregon

**Mr. IWS** · 10-02-2010, 12:49 PM

Re: 10-2-10

ness 10-oreg, haw, 9-oreg st, bay, navy

**Mr. IWS** · 10-02-2010, 12:50 PM

Re: 10-2-10

PPP Added

3% Oklahoma
4% Northwestern
3% Va Tech
5% Georgia
4% Florida St.
3% Hawaii

**Mr. IWS** · 10-02-2010, 05:19 PM

Re: 10-2-10

Larry Ness' 10* Bailout Blowout Gm of Month (Late)

HAWAII

10-2-10

10-2-10

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