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Re: 10-3-10
ATS Jets Green Bay & Over Pitt Denver Houston
ATS Jets Green Bay & Over Pitt Denver Houston
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Re: 10-3-10- GC System Club play
Sunday NFL DIV GOM- 5* Never lost System leads another Solid card. NFL Top plays off to 3-0 start. Big Sunday card also includes MLB Season ending Diamond Cutter side + 2 More NFL Best Bets.
On Sunday the system Club play is on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Game 216 at 4:05 eastern. The Jags were beat good at home last week by 25 points vs the Eagles. That blowout loss sets then up in a solid 23-8 system that plays on home dog off a home dog loss by 24 or more points vs an opponent off a win. The Jags always give the Colts a tough time before losing. Last year they played a close 35-31 game. The Jags are 8-0 ats home off back to back losses and 7-0 at home when the total is 45.5 to 49. The Colts are just 2-8 ats as a division road favorite of more than 3 of late. Look for a closer than expected game. Take the Jaguars. On Sunday I have 3 Big Power system plays going. The Top 5* play is backed with a Never Lost system that dates to 1980. I also have a solid season ending MLB play. NFL Top plays have been solid cashing all 3 weeks thus far. Saturday was Another Big day led by the big 5* win on Wyoming. . Take The Jaguars plus the points today. GCComment
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Re: 10-3-10
MTI
Newsletter Side Play
-4 Star Washington + over PHILADELPHIA – The responsibility for the Redskins’ embarrassing loss to the Rams last week can be placed on the offense. They gave the ball to the Rams on their own three-yard line after a fumble by Santana Moss, they couldn’t get in the end zone from inside their opponent’s ten-yard line twice and they converted only one of ten first downs. The defense stopped the Rams on four trips inside their red zone and stuffed the Rams three straight plays on a first and goal at their one-yard line and then blocked the field goal attempt. Their offense was flat and only had 25:10 of possession time. Apparently the Redskins were looking ahead to this one, as we can find no other excuse for their poor play. We expect much better things from Shanahan’s squad this week.
The Redskins are 7-0 ATS (+10.0 ppg) as a dog when they allowed more points than they were supposed to in each of their last two games. Washington won six of the seven straight up, with their only SU loss coming by a 28-23 score as a double-digit dog in Dallas.
Also, Washington is 7-0 ATS (+9.0 ppg) as a Sunday road dog vs a divisional opponent and 11-0 ATS as a dog vs a team with more wins the week after a road loss in which they scored fewer than 20 points. The SDQL text is:
team=Redskins and D and o:wins>wins and p:AL and NB and points<20 and 20011021<=date
The Eagles have looked good behind Mike Vick, but he has only played the Lions and the Jaguars. Last week, Jacksonville allowed a lot of big plays and their offense had trouble sustaining drives. The Jaguars punted eight times and the only time they got into the Eagles’ red zone was in the fourth quarter after a long defensive pass interference penalty. That drive stalled on the Philadelphia 18-yard line when they turned it over on Downs. This is relevant because the Eagles are 0-9 ATS (-14.5 ppg) since 2005 at home when they never had to defend a first-and-goal last week. Also, Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS (-12.9 ppg) as a home favorite after a win they stopped their opponent on at least ten third down attempts.
The main impetus for this play, however, is the fact that NFL teams with a winning record of better than 200 are 32-0-1 ATS since the start of the 2006 season the week after a road game in which they stopped their opponent on at least three red zone attempts and at least one goal-to-goal attempt, as long as they weren’t a 13+ point dog this game or the previous game and it is not the last week of the season. The Redskins qualify for this play-on system that was 6-0 ATS in 2008 and 5-0 ATS last season. Grab the points.
Washington 20 PHILADELPHIA 17
Totals Play
-5 Star Arizona at San Diego OVER 46 -- The Cardinals played a sloppy game last week against the Raiders, committing 104 yards of penalties. The main reason that they were able to win is that they were 2-of-2 inside the red zone and the Raiders were 1-of-5. If the Raiders can put 23 points on the board vs the Cardinals, the Chargers should be able to exceed this number significantly.
NFL teams are a combined 24-0 OU as a regular season dog when they committed 98+ yards of penalties the previous week, as long as they were not a dog of more than a field goal in that game. This OU system has an average winning margin of 12.7 ppg and is already 2-0 this season. The Cardinals, of course, are the qualifying team here.
The Chargers have thrown the ball an average of 40.3 times per game this season and the Cardinals have a strong OVER tendency as a significant underdog vs passing a team. Arizona is 19-0 OU as a road dog of more than three points vs a team that has averaged at least 33 passes per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
team=Cardinals and A and oA(passes)>33 and line>3 and season>=2002
This system makes sense, in order to win as a significant road dog, the Cardinals can’t play conservatively. They can’t afford to waste a single possession. They have to push the ball down the field aggressively on every drive. This leads to high scoring games.
In addition, Arizona is 7-0 OU (+13.1 ppg) as a dog when they won by 1-3 points last week against a non-divisional opponent, 7-0 OU (+12.0 ppg) as a dog when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date and 7-0 OU (+9.4 ppg) when they are off a game in which their opponent had at least five separate trips inside their red zone and failed on at least three of them.
Turning our attention to the Chargers, we find that they are in a scheduling spot in which they have flown over the total. San Diego has a game in Oakland next, and they are 8-0 OU as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before visiting a divisional opponent, flying over by an average of 16.6 ppg. Also, San Diego is 8-0 OU as a favorite the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road, going over by an average of 14.7 ppg and 7-0 OU (+10.6 ppg) as a favorite after a road game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.
San Diego doesn’t want to play defense and the Cardinals can’t. We look for an offensive shoot out here. Take the OVER.
SAN DIEGO 37 Arizona 34Comment
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