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Re: 10-4-10
Stan Sharp
Patriots
Stan Sharp
Patriots
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Re: 10-4-10
HRC NFL PREMIUM-Monday, October 4th
Capper: Robcat (Handicappers Paradise)
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2* Action (non-rated)
5* Selection
8* Premium
10* Premium
15* Diamond
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[225] Patriots/Dolphins |5*|OVER|47.5|ESPN|@ 8:35 pm EST
Note*
8-4 67% in the NFLComment
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Re: 10-4-10
Jeff Benton
MONDAY'S ACTION
25 DIME NFL selection on the Patriots-Dolphins UNDER THE TOTAL in Monday Night Football action from Landshark Staaium. The Over/Under in this game is sitting at 47 1/2 to 48 depeinding on where you shop. This number has been climbing all week and I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue to rise all day long. So I encolrage you to monitor the line moves and make your wager accordingly -- as soon as you start to see a "buy back" move on the UNDER (meaning as soon as you see the number heading back down), that's when you should get down on this play. If you can get the UNDER at 48 1/2, 49 or even 49 1/2, that would be tremendous value.
Patriots-Dolphins UNDER
I’ll be honest with you: A week ago, I was all set to release a big play on the OVER in this game. Then the opening number came out and I knew there was no way I could recommend the OVER because the line was inflated by about two points. So what’s happened in the last six days? The public has been hammering the OVER to the point that this total is up 2½ to 3 points from the opening number of 45 … and again, the opening number was off by at least two points.
This is another classic overreaction by bettors, who saw both New England’s and Miami’s defenses struggle last week (the Pats surrendered 30 points to the crappy Bills while scoring 38; the Dolphins gave up 31 points to the Jets in a 31-23 loss). But I’ll repeat it again: One of the biggest mistakes gamblers make is being too shortsighted and looking only at what has happened in the very recent past. In this particular game, what they’re overlooking is the fact Miami gave up 10 points each to Buffalo and Minnesota in the first two weeks, and while New England’s points-allowed have gone up each week (from 24 to 28 to 30), a good chunk of those points were scored in garbage time by Buffalo and Cincinnati when the Pats had huge leads and were playing soft defensively.
Tonight, I don’t see either of these squads racing out to a 14- to 17-point advantage because they’re both evenly matched this season (hence the pick-em line).
Another thing to consider: Tom Brady is definitely back on his game, and Dolphins coach Tony Sparano knows it. Sparano understands that the only way to win tonight is to keep Tom Brady on the sidelines as long as possible. How do you do that? Long, sustained drives that chew up the clock, and that’s accomplished through running the football and throwing short, high-percentage passes. Sparano is no dummy – the last thing he wants is to get into a shootout with Brady, Moss and the Patriots, because it’s a fight he will lose.
At the same time, you know that Patriots coach Bill Belichick – a self-described defensive genius – is seething over the way his stop unit has performed through three weeks. Belichick wants his young defense to gain some confidence, as he knows Brady and the offense can only carry this team so far. So expect the most inspired effort from the New England D that we have seen all season.
Two final points to make:
1) When these AFC East foes met last year, the posted totals were 47 (for a game in New England) and 46 (for a game in Miami). Both contests stayed under the number with respective scores of 27-17 (44 total points) and 22-21 (43 total points). I think we’re headed for a similar total here.
2) Take a look at the scores so far in Monday Night Football this season: The Ravens beat the Jets 10-9; the Chiefs beat the Chargers 21-14; the Saints beat the 49ers 25-22 (thanks to a wild final 3 minutes in which 10 points were scored); and the Bears outlasted the Packers 20-17. That’s three “unders” and one “over” and not a single game that eclipsed 47 points, which is what tonight’s game will have to do to cash “over” tickets.
Throw in Sunday Night and Thursday Night NFL games this year, and we’ve seen six of eight prime-time games that have stayed under 47 points (including five with 37 points or less!).
Too much value on the UNDER in this one – with more value likely to come as we get closer to kickoff. Play this one low.Comment
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Re: 10-4-10
Carl Giordano
Patriots at Dolphins
Pick: Over 47
New England has gone "over" in its first three games, as QB Tom Brady has made good use of rookie TEs Gronkowski and Hernandez. Meanwhile, Miami's offense has stepped up (and its offense stepped down) in these marquee NFL night games, as the Dolphins are 4-1 "over" in their last five Sunday, Monday or Thursday night affairs. This looks like another high-scoring, high-profile game and the steam on the over has only driven the game up a point off the opener.Comment
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Re: 10-4-10
The Duke's Sports
New England Over (48) for 2.5 Units
We project a significant amount of offense tonight based on the matchups involved. The Patriots' offense is in a nice rhythm and Miami's secondary is young and prone to mistakes as exhibited last week vs New York. The Patriots should go after Miami's most vulnerable corner Jason Allen, who has struggled in pass coverage this season. And with the addition of TE Aaron Hernandez, a revitalized Wes Welker, and speedy Edelman, Brady has plenty of weapons to rely on if Miami's best corner --Vontae Davis does a nice job on Moss. And when NE gets their offense rolling, they're hard to stop. They're 4-1 O/U in their last 5 games after accumulating 350+ in previous game. On the other hand, the Patirots' defense may be under the guidance of Belichick, but the youth of the talent is not yet ready to grasp his complex schemes. Belichick no longer has that veteran on-field leadership of yesteryear with Rodney Harrison or Tedy Bruschi. As a result, mis communication and mistakes have yielded 27 ppg this season. Miami's offense is well diversified with their version of the wildcat and quality skill players, including Brandon Marshall, to wreak havoc. Miami is 7-1-1 O/U at home, 12-5-1 O/U off a SU loss, and 5-1 O/U in October. "Over" the call.Comment
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