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30 DIME baseball playoff selaction on the PHILLIES on the RUN LINE (-1 1/2 runs) vs. the Reds. Philadelphia is ranging from +105 to +110 underidog on the run line. As with all run-line wagers, starting pitchers are automatically spelified so both Roy Oswalt (Philadelphia) and Bronson Arroyo (Cincinnati) must start or this play is null and void!
PHILLIES (-1½ runs)
Kind of feel a little sorry for Cincinnati, which fell victim to Roy Halladay’s no-hit masterpiece on Wednesday and now 48 hours later has to run up against old nemesis Roy Oswalt. Forget about the fact that Oswalt was 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) after being traded from Houston to Philadelphia (which went 10-1 in the right-hander’s last 11 starts). Those are obviously really impressive numbers, but they pale in comparison to this:
Oswalt is 23-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 34 career games (32 starts) versus the Reds. Granted, two of those three losses came in his two starts against the Reds this season – he gave up nine runs and 17 hits in 12 innings – but he was with the Astros for both of those games, and the pathetic Houston offense backed him with exactly two runs of support. Now he’s pitching for a squad that fields a lineup of Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard and Werth – big difference.
Additionally, Oswalt’s two regular-season starts vs. Cincinnati were in Houston. This game is at Citizens Bank Park, where Oswalt went 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP and a 42-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in six starts. The Phillies won all six games, five of them by multiple runs.
While Oswalt has tremendous career numbers against the Reds, Cincinnati right-hander Bronson Arroyo has not fared well against the Phillies, going 1-5 with a 5.54 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP and a .296 batting average-against. Only one of Arroyo’s seven career starts against the Phillies was a quality outing (back in 2000), and that was the only time he got out of the sixth inning against the Phils.
Philadelphia has now won five straight against the Reds overall (all at Citizens Bank Park), and it is 20-8 in the last 28 clashes (winning seven in a row at home). Additionally, the Phillies are 50-19 in their last 69 overall, 10-2 in their last 12 home games and 13-3 in their last 16 playoff contests at home. Finally, their last five wins have been blowouts (4-0, 7-0, 11-5, 7-1 and 8-0), and 15 of their last 20 victories have been by multiple runs.
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